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12-22-2011, 03:57 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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Place and Show bets
We know that two win bets outperform single win wagers. Does anybody know if the same strategy applies to place and show bets? Would betting four horses to place or six to show be a viable practice?
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12-22-2011, 04:03 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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anyway welcome to pace and cap
6 horses to show you sure will go to the window often LOL |
12-22-2011, 04:08 PM | #3 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
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Quote:
Jim |
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12-22-2011, 04:42 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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By outperform I mean a higher ROI. So, higher profits. I believe it was in the Chaos manual where the two win bet was shown to produce a higher ROI even against the guarantee of one loss per race. I wonder if the same result holds true to the other two positions.
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12-22-2011, 05:47 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Chuckg, I would think that betting two horses to place or show might be profitable to some extent , but using 4 or 6 horses ( in my opinion ) would be cost prohibitive.
A 6 horse show bet at 2.00 each would require a combined 12.00 return on each play just to break even. I have no records of place or show averages but I doubt they would average4.00 to show when the national win average is around 9/2. Good luck. |
12-22-2011, 07:16 PM | #6 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
Ernie |
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12-23-2011, 07:01 AM | #7 | ||
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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chuckg:
Quote:
Quote:
Welcome to the board. I would have to respectfully disagree with the above statement. To me the "Chaos Manual' is not the Gospel. Many versed authors will tell you the complete opposite. If you wish to believe and subscribe to that way of thinking, I am not faulting you. In my opinion, one horse win betting and seeking value is the only way to bet. Merry Christmas Last edited by partsnut; 12-23-2011 at 07:09 AM. |
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12-23-2011, 10:46 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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Good point. How do we really know. The two win bet trials are found on pages 71-72 in the Chaos manual. I looked it up this morning. I see that betting two horses to win is a standard strategy that shows up in the manuals and follow ups.
I did a quick lookback to the last two cards I worked to see if betting two to six horses to show was more profitable than betting just one. Based on the paselines I selected on those days I would have lost more $2's that the $2.20 and $2.40 payouts could ever replenish. Looking at the results it would seem that had my pacelines been more predictive my $12 would have been better spent on exactas instead of shows. |
12-23-2011, 02:38 PM | #9 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Re Show betting - I don't have much opinion, and think money would be better spent on Win or Exacta pools. I think the issue is to narrow the focus on true contenders to about 3.
Re multi-horse win betting, I do have an opinion: If I like the 1 and 1A entry as primary contenders, and the post time odds are 2-1, if the #1 wins, the #1A loses, but my entry bet still pays at 2-1. If in another race, I like the #1 at 4-1 and the #2 at 7-1 and I bet a synthetic entry of the #4 and #7 - and the #4 wins and the #7 loses, my bet pays ... 2-1, same as the first example. I consider a 2 hose bet as a synthetic entry which has a high and low payoff potential. A normal entry also has a high and low payoff potential - but the high and low are the same amount. In between the above possibilities, are multi-wagers like Win/Place on 1 horse with a variable high/low payoff, Win on 1 horse, Place on another horse, Place on 2 horses, etc. Consider that it's not important how many horses you are betting, or in which pools, but rather what is your payoff range, your ROI, compared to your risk. Ted
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12-24-2011, 11:50 AM | #10 |
Maiden
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 2
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chuckg
If you are interested in place dutching look up Huey Mahl. He was an early positive influence on Howard. In one of the Follow Ups, Howard commented that if he read only the work of Mahl, he would have arrived at his own methodology much faster. Anyway, Huey wrote a couple of great articles on place dutching which I expect you can likely find on the web. |
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