PEN - Nov 24 - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Ted Craven · 11-24-2009, 08:08 PM

So # 3 can run in the slop. Good for him.

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Ted Craven · 11-24-2009, 08:16 PM

Race #5

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A bit far off from post, but #4 and #6 present betting opportunities...

BJennet · 11-24-2009, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

So # 3 can run in the slop. Good for him.

Attachment 18199

I can retire off this one.

sq764 · 11-24-2009, 08:17 PM

Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL..

I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me..

1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy?

2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list?

3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when?

BJennet · 11-24-2009, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Race #5

Attachment 18200

A bit far off from post, but #4 and #6 present betting opportunities...

Ted,

I think I would look to play the 2 here to win and place and backwheeled with the 4.6. and 7. The 7 looks to be the class of the field, but is possibly a bit vulnerable in the slop.

Ted Craven · 11-24-2009, 08:32 PM

Ran out of time to post on the #5, but put my bet down on the #1 and #4. #1 scratched at the gate, so #1a ran for the entry.

Fave won.

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Ted Craven · 11-24-2009, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BJennet

Ted,

I think I would look to play the 2 here to win and place and backwheeled with the 4.6. and 7. The 7 looks to be the class of the field, but is possibly a bit vulnerable in the slop.

BJ, good call! #2 definitely best bet. I also thought #7 might be vulnerable. To much 'thinking' LOL

Ted Craven · 11-24-2009, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sq764

Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL..

I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me..

1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy?

2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list?

3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when?

Welcome Scott!

Quick answers for the moment:

1. For any factor, rank #1 gets RED, rank #2 GREEN, rank #3 GREEN.

2. BL/BL screen, check energy distribution on E/L Difference Graph

3. 64K Question! If intervening lines are non-representative, yes. If horse faced not as fast pace as he's shown can compete well against previously, use 2nd or 3rd rather than last. More to this...

Ted

BJennet · 11-24-2009, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sq764

Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL..

I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me..

1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy?

2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list?

3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when?

Hi sql,

This should better be answered by Bill or Ted, but I do believe that the colors stand for Average Purse Value rank. Best of the last 3 at same distance or surface is standard Sartin practice, but I will go back a bit further if I don't find a comparable within those limits, and the timeframe is within reason - for me 90-100 days. Also, on turf races, many, myself included, use the Pizzola window - the best race in the full (visible) record. I am a value player, so for me, the odds are key. It would be better if others here answered that question. Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

BJennet · 11-24-2009, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

BJ, good call! #2 definitely best bet. I also thought #7 might be vulnerable. To much 'thinking' LOL

Thanks Ted. Since I didn't have time to check odds I didn't realize how much the horse was hammered, and probably wouldn't have bet at those odds. I've found this to be a real problem at smaller tracks and is one reason I don't play them. As far as the thought behind it - since the horse appeared to have an edge on EPR, it might be helpedt by the sloppy conditions to hit the board - we've all seen this many times. It really is a myth that play isn't as sharp at smaller tracks.

11-24-2009, 08:08 PM	#21
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	So # 3 can run in the slop. Good for him. __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

11-24-2009, 08:16 PM	#22
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Race #5 A bit far off from post, but #4 and #6 present betting opportunities... __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

11-24-2009, 08:32 PM	#26
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Ran out of time to post on the #5, but put my bet down on the #1 and #4. #1 scratched at the gate, so #1a ran for the entry. Fave won. __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

11-24-2009, 08:17 PM	#24
sq764 AlwNW3X Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 45	Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL.. I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me.. 1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy? 2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list? 3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when?