Auto paceline templates /Betting real money testing it

[mildeu]

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Post moved to 'Angles' Topic in Handicapping Forum: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...newpost&t=6275

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[rmath]

As I was reading this post about PSS - automated paceline selection process,
I wondered what would happen if say 50-100 people used the same horses at
9/2 odds, 0 mtp. would all that money being bet at post drive down the odds
and eliminate any chance for success, especially with only a 5% roi?
Just a thought.
rmath

[Profiler8]

Hi rmath,

if more and more people have access to the same information the odds are dropping. A software can pick pacelines for you, but you must decide, if you bet or not. You must decide, if you accept the paceline or not. An automatic paceline selection is a good process to begin the handicapping process.
The selection process could not be automatic. You decide, if the horse is a contender or not.
If 100 people use the same line, it does not say, that all people bet the horse. If so, then I bet a other horse with value or no horse.

In some cases the odds will drop, most at smaller tracks, but I think, that most of the people do not bet with RDSS, because they make racing for fun and not for profit. Clearly when everybody of us bets $100 on these selections at smaller tracks then there are many odds on favorites on clear selections.

But if all people bet the horse, then you have overlays on the other horses. ;-)
Value is everything in racing.

That is now enough with the ifs....

Greetings
Tim

[rmath]

Tim,
I agree with you completely.
What I was implying was what if 50-100 rdss users all bet online
at the same time , o mtp.
Thanks for the reply
rmath

[Profiler8]

Hi,

that is bad scenario, but possible. ;-)
I bet through MagnaBet in Europe (YouBet in the USA). The money goes direct into the pools of the racetracks.
It happened, that I bet a 5/1 shot 0 minutes before the off. But then the payout was only 3/1. You often see that at small tracks, that the post time odds are different with the off odds, because of the small pools. A lot of money goes to the pools, when the race starts. I think this is with other legal internet racebooks as well. They have a direct connection to the tote at the track. When 100 bets come at one time, proably the server has some problems. Seldom, I got an error message just before the off, but it happened. ;-)
Sometimes I bet with Betfair, they offer tote betting and exchange betting. On the exchanges, the money is in a other pool.

I hope that helps... :-)

Greetings
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Richard, Tim,

I've been spending a lot of time the past weeks working on the PSS module, and Tim I think you have stated the crux of the 'automation' issue: indeed using the same 'canned' PSS rules, everyone will pick the same paceline, but there can still be a lot of decision making interpreting readouts based on those lines. The line may be 60+days old - do you use it; the line may be from a different surface than today - do you use it; the line may have been against inferior competition; may have been against a slower or faster pace than today; the horse may have won its past 2 races and never won 3 in a row before - do you use any paceline; etc, etc

These are judgements re the 'quality' of paceline you can program in but 50 or 100 people may not be able to bear accepting a program's judgement (probably even if the results prove otherwise); thus they may tweak some of those judgements, if that proves possible, then everyone is no longer in synch.

Then you have to categorize contenders versus non-contenders. And depending on your preference for betting pools, your non-contenders for Win may still be contenders for in-the-money.

Some people's emotional comfort zone may prompt them to bet 2 horses (or dutch 3 horses for Win), while others are comfortable betting 1 horse to Win, so the money available for the Win Pool will be diluted between different horses. Sometimes the difference between, say, the top 3 BL ranked horses is either hard to tell or immaterial, and a wagercapping approach calls for betting 2 of the top 3 depending on rank and overlay odds at bet-time. If you use the same conditional wager taking ADW and bet at 0 MTP, some will set their minimum odds at one level and others at a different level, or the dutch net-odds of mutliple horses at different levels (depending on whether your ADW offers that). Thus, yet more dilution away from all betting the same horse.

And - those users outside of the US may choose to bet through an exchange like Betfair, where my experience so far is that odds in the range of less than, say, 5-1 can vary from North American pari-mutuel pools by from .5 to 1 whole odds point (usually to the better, due to lower commission rates). So that percentage of the 50 - 100 users won't impact co-mingled pools.

Plus, some percentage of folks will never need to or be comfortable betting more than low to mid-double digit bets. Etc, etc.

It's not unreasonable to think that at some smaller tracks, the odds may be impacted if enough folks gang up, but I wonder if there's not a lot longer way to go yet before that becomes a fear.

RDSS will never be a complete black-box - I don't think I know how to do that! It will become a strong 'betting practice management tool', doing a much larger proportion of the supporting grunt work and record keeping than presently. But I think quality decision making should remain the final human key to success to any serious degree, and for some time to come.

Just my 2 cents.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Here's another interesting notion related to many people betting in synch, overloading a few horses in the betting pools:

Consider the role of what in financial markets is called 'market maker' - a trader or party whose job it is take the opposite side of some trades to provide liquidity in the market and facilitate trading. Betfair has these in many of its sports markets (not sure about horse racing markets).

What if one role of a certain type of 'whale' operation is to play 'market maker' in selected parimutuel markets. In the Win Pool for example, from studying the RDSS Tote browser output, though picking the winner may be sometimes a cat and mouse game, and Ernie (Silentrun) has been studying whether he can get the Tri or Super in the top 4 Win Odds and Tote Xray ranks - I am thinking I at least know how to find say 2 or 3 horses in almost every race of a certain field size, whose share of the Win Pool adds up to about 20% (i.e. more than the takeout %), who I absolutely know will not win the race.

If at 0 MTP, I conditionally dutch all the rest of the horses to seek a bit better than breakeven - I am in effect playing the role of 'market maker' and adding more liquidity into that pool equally on perhaps up to 75% of the field. On this money I get a rebate of 7-10% for my risk, plus whatever few points of ROI I may get from the many-horse dutch bet. The result: the pools go up, targeted bets on specific horses to win have a bigger size pool to swim in, and thus affect odds on other horses less than in a smaller pool.

Of course this is much easier to do in a betting exchange environment where you can easily bet against (lay) horses you believe can't win - but that doesn't help pari-mutuel markets where most of us bet.

To you 'whales' out there: is this a real-world scenario?

Ted

[rmath]

Ted:
Thanks for the reply. My comments were not intended to say I was not in favor
of PSS . They were only my worse case senario.
rmath