Chalky Week...and then this. - Pace and Cap

The Pook · 11-14-2014, 04:01 PM

Practicing the Matchup with Pete and the boys and reading the Hatcheck is giving me new insights.

A generic 7f poly race at Woodbine today made my week after enduring a high percentage of low odds post time favourites winning at all my tracks all week. I don't bet those but what I did bet kept me almost even. The sixth race set up (4 need to lead earlies). After reading The Hats advice on looking for an OTE that is able to win from behind all the earlies when it is appropriate to go OTE, left me with the two horses below.

Both showed the best ability to win from positions 4 or 5.

One when off at 4.5 to 1. The other at 24-1.
The right one won...
Pays to be patient.

Pook
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Segwin · 11-14-2014, 07:40 PM

WOOF! Nice hit.

PeteC · 11-14-2014, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pook

The sixth race set up (4 need to lead earlies). After reading The Hats advice on looking for an OTE that is able to win from behind all the earlies when it is appropriate to go OTE, left me with the two horses below.

Both showed the best ability to win from positions 4 or 5.

One when off at 4.5 to 1. The other at 24-1.
The right one won...
Pays to be patient.

Pook
Attachment 38429 Attachment 38428

Those words are straight gold man...You've taken what you've learned, straight from Richie's words and Jim's teachings and had the patience to wait...then pounced when the situation called for it.

Seriously, WELL, WELL done...Keep up the great matching!

Here are the PP's btw for anyone who wants to look in...

mowens33 · 11-15-2014, 12:42 AM

Pook, nice score!

Hang that one on the HAT CHECK!!

Mike

vderdak · 11-15-2014, 08:06 AM

Great job Pook!!!!! Keep up the good work. You always do well, I think you have it down, I hope to get where you are at!

Here are my results since I've been using the match up only for the last two weeks starting 11/1, I usually play at night only because of work. My plan has been to make $5 win bets only, one horse only, once in a while a $4 or $2 bet but mainly the $5 bet 95% of the time. While learning I play races where I feel the horse in the matchup should win: lone early, speed of the speed or ote, about 9-10 each evening among the 4-5 tracks I'm following. I've had some good hits, my best at 20-1 so far. Every practice race that we do here that I have posted my pick I've also bet $5. Here are my results so far from the last two weeks. If I get to the $400 bank level I plan to increase my bets to $10 per horse.

My starting bank was $175 and I am at $323.

TOTAL
# BETS WIN % $1 ROI BET TOTAL REFUND PAYOUT PROFIT/LOSS
129 24.0% $+0.21 $714.00 $0.00 $862.20 $+148.20

I need to cut back and be a bit more selective on my bets going forward and I've missed some easy ones after the fact, my biggest problem is going back and looking at lost races, it's hard not to but sometimes I just have to peek which both the Hat and Rich say not too. I'm working on that. I read the site each evening over and over, all the old posts. The main thing I've noticed is my positive attitude now and I expect to win. I want to thank everyone here who posts now with advice and of course those before me who have contributed so much to matching.

raceman5 · 11-15-2014, 09:48 AM

Just curious why u used his 3rd line back at 6f when today's race is 7f? his last race was at 7f.

Bob

The Pook · 11-15-2014, 05:05 PM

Vderdak,
Those are good numbers! The majority of players can't do that. You are on your way and you are right about the attitude etc. You need the right mental state to push through the inevitable down times. As Doc Sartin used to say...try and stay even or so as much as you can and wait to be on the right side when the public makes a big mistake (or something to that affect).

Bob,
Those aren't necessarily paceline choices. I just put them up to show the best choices for winning from 4 or 5 positions back at the first call.
Actually I didn't consider pacelines in this race. My selections were made once I confirmed that they had positive last races or a good excuse if they didn't. I think it was the minds eye thing or (voodoo?) where you just feel that in that situation at that time that the two selections were the best bets no matter what happens. If I had to bet only one horse I'm not sure that I would have had the 10. With the odds though 2 Win bets seemed appropriate. I bet 2 horses about 60% of the time.

Thanks to all for the positive vibes.

Pook

vderdak · 11-15-2014, 11:58 PM

Pook thanks for the kind comments, it's appreciated. I caught the public making another mistake tonight. Took the #4 in Race 10 at Delta. To me it looked like 4 early horses and I took the #4 since it ran against the best early fractions of the ote's and it won at 25-1. It sure helped against some of the tough losses I had as well tonight. My usual $5 on the nose.

The Pook · 11-16-2014, 09:10 AM

Vderdak, way to go man!

mowens33 · 11-16-2014, 11:06 AM

Vderdak, keep working it! Nice price!!

Mike

11-14-2014, 04:01 PM	#1
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,573	Chalky Week...and then this. Practicing the Matchup with Pete and the boys and reading the Hatcheck is giving me new insights. A generic 7f poly race at Woodbine today made my week after enduring a high percentage of low odds post time favourites winning at all my tracks all week. I don't bet those but what I did bet kept me almost even. The sixth race set up (4 need to lead earlies). After reading The Hats advice on looking for an OTE that is able to win from behind all the earlies when it is appropriate to go OTE, left me with the two horses below. Both showed the best ability to win from positions 4 or 5. One when off at 4.5 to 1. The other at 24-1. The right one won... Pays to be patient. Pook

11-14-2014, 07:40 PM	#2
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	WOOF! Nice hit. __________________ Terry

11-15-2014, 09:48 AM	#6
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,302	Good hit Just curious why u used his 3rd line back at 6f when today's race is 7f? his last race was at 7f. Bob

11-15-2014, 12:42 AM	#4
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,048	Pook, nice score! Hang that one on the HAT CHECK!! Mike

11-15-2014, 08:06 AM	#5
vderdak Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 130	Great job Pook!!!!! Keep up the good work. You always do well, I think you have it down, I hope to get where you are at! Here are my results since I've been using the match up only for the last two weeks starting 11/1, I usually play at night only because of work. My plan has been to make $5 win bets only, one horse only, once in a while a $4 or $2 bet but mainly the $5 bet 95% of the time. While learning I play races where I feel the horse in the matchup should win: lone early, speed of the speed or ote, about 9-10 each evening among the 4-5 tracks I'm following. I've had some good hits, my best at 20-1 so far. Every practice race that we do here that I have posted my pick I've also bet $5. Here are my results so far from the last two weeks. If I get to the $400 bank level I plan to increase my bets to $10 per horse. My starting bank was $175 and I am at $323. TOTAL # BETS WIN % $1 ROI BET TOTAL REFUND PAYOUT PROFIT/LOSS 129 24.0% $+0.21 $714.00 $0.00 $862.20 $+148.20 I need to cut back and be a bit more selective on my bets going forward and I've missed some easy ones after the fact, my biggest problem is going back and looking at lost races, it's hard not to but sometimes I just have to peek which both the Hat and Rich say not too. I'm working on that. I read the site each evening over and over, all the old posts. The main thing I've noticed is my positive attitude now and I expect to win. I want to thank everyone here who posts now with advice and of course those before me who have contributed so much to matching.

11-15-2014, 05:05 PM	#7
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,573	Vderdak, Those are good numbers! The majority of players can't do that. You are on your way and you are right about the attitude etc. You need the right mental state to push through the inevitable down times. As Doc Sartin used to say...try and stay even or so as much as you can and wait to be on the right side when the public makes a big mistake (or something to that affect). Bob, Those aren't necessarily paceline choices. I just put them up to show the best choices for winning from 4 or 5 positions back at the first call. Actually I didn't consider pacelines in this race. My selections were made once I confirmed that they had positive last races or a good excuse if they didn't. I think it was the minds eye thing or (voodoo?) where you just feel that in that situation at that time that the two selections were the best bets no matter what happens. If I had to bet only one horse I'm not sure that I would have had the 10. With the odds though 2 Win bets seemed appropriate. I bet 2 horses about 60% of the time. Thanks to all for the positive vibes. Pook

11-15-2014, 11:58 PM	#8
vderdak Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 130	Pook thanks for the kind comments, it's appreciated. I caught the public making another mistake tonight. Took the #4 in Race 10 at Delta. To me it looked like 4 early horses and I took the #4 since it ran against the best early fractions of the ote's and it won at 25-1. It sure helped against some of the tough losses I had as well tonight. My usual $5 on the nose.

11-16-2014, 09:10 AM	#9
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,573	Vderdak, way to go man!

11-16-2014, 11:06 AM	#10
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,048	Vderdak, keep working it! Nice price!! Mike