Early/Late 2.0 at Gulfstream (April 2)

[Ted Craven]

Working out some (more, sigh) bugs from RDSS 2.0, and looking at the new Early/Late 2.0 module - a completely automated process - for evaluating tendency and relative ability to run Early versus Late. It got the winner in the Top 4, plus a few Exactas and Tri's of 9 of 10 playable races at Gulfsteam today (excepting the 6th and 8th races with many FTS). I think the single 5th race run-out was due to a coding error on my part.

Let me clarify, and give complete credit where credit is due - this module is an implementation of Dave Schwartz' NewPace concept (with Dave's permission), together with a few RDSS twists. For those of you who may have been following his discussion on that at PaceAdvantage.com, or who want to know more about the conceptual underpinnings, here is a link to his product page: http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/products-page/ In the RDSS 2.0 documentation and videos, I'll describe this in a bit of detail, but I would highly recommend you buy Dave's video, go through it once, then use the upcoming E/L 2.0 readout here as another tool in the box.

NewPace is NOT a negation in any way of what we know of The Matchup, or any other Sartin energy distribution concepts - in fact, in my opinion so far, NewPace is enhanced by integrating better measurements of Early and Late energy disbursement readouts. For right now, any differences between the following readouts and what you might get working NP according to the videos are due to using numbers from TrackMaster (e.g. versus DRF or HDW), plus my own coding errors or misunderstandings.

Regardless, interesting consistency, especially for exotic wagering. Plus it gets even better when you add in a few common analyses we do in our sleep to throw out a horse here and there. There were a reasonable number of shorter prices today, though including a few $8.00 + mutuels and a few double digits. Here is a link to the Equibase charts: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...040211USA.html

Pay attention to the right-most E/L column. (Note: these readouts will almost certainly change before final release).

[Ted Craven]

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[Ted Craven]

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[Ted Craven]

I have to thank everyone for being so patient (OK, some not so patient - but I take that as encouragement) in this RDSS 2.0 progress. I am trying to get enough minor things completed and tested during this coming week to both make an initial video tour, and to hand it off to 2 or 3 of you who have asked for some early mistreatment (I mean, pre-Beta testing ). The rest of you who have volunteered to test - you would not want this week's version, but a proper round 1 Beta version should be available in May.

I will be in California for a few weeks beginning April 11, and programming is going to slow a bit during that period. I'll still be doing emails, postings and support (and some betting...)

cheers,

Ted

[cdax]

Terrific addition to the new release.

I got Dave's videos last week and have been trying to speed up my New Pace handicapping. As of right now I'm entering info into Dave's Excel sheets (with a few modifications) and after a 10 race card I get alittle bug-eyed.

Love the New Pace screenshots. I see it notes the swing horse and am wondering what the little superscripted number next to the accumulating totals in the % E/L column.

Thanks for all your hard work and can't wait for this release.

Chris

[SilentRun]

Ted,

What is the significance of the blue and red colors in the E/L column ?

Ernie

[cdax]

They signify the 2 early horses and 2 late horses, using Dave Schwatz' system.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by cdax

I see it notes the swing horse and am wondering what the little superscripted number next to the accumulating totals in the % E/L column.

That is the percentage of the top 2 Early horses (VISUALLY) owned by the Top Early horse. Or, how dominant is the Top Early horse. 62%+ is considered dominant and we must respect this horse even if it has lower final time speed ratings. This would be somewhat analogous to a horse on the Segments screen having the 0.0's (RED) for the first 2 calls.

The lower the %, the more early pressure it faces from other Early horses. The more Early horses there are, each having a minor percentage of the early pressure (e.g. 18-25%), the more pressured the Earlies are, and we might do a further analysis of the Lates (OTE's). As I understand it...

Ted

[SilentRun]

Ted,

These are excellent results for an automated process the profit potential is exciting. The correlation between current RDSS and RDSS 2.0 using NP is very
high... I would estimate about 80-85%. I ran 6 races through RDSS and compared the E/L designations to 2.0. Given the differences that were mentioned..i.e TM vs DRF/HDW plus conceptual gaps..the E/L is very positive.
Race 1 below is an example.

RDSS 2.0 (NP) shows Early: 2 and 7...Late: 8 and 9
RDSS current (below) shows Early: 2, 7, 9....Late: 8

There is obviously a big E/L difference in the 9 horse between the 2 versions of RDSS. I just ordered NP Videos from D. Schwartz so I can understand the concepts. In the interim can you say the difference in this case is due to the points mentioned above ?


Ernie

[raceman5]

i also use new pace myself and the results have been excellent, but it is very tedious, takes 10 to 15 min to do a race, but i can see ted is incorporating it into rdss and i will definitly be back on the band wagon, excellent job ted as this is a real time saver.

Bob