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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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07-11-2009, 12:26 PM | #21 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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Here you are Mike, right there for the taking!
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07-11-2009, 12:52 PM | #22 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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OUCH.....hit me again
thxs B
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
07-11-2009, 01:00 PM | #23 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Certainly Taulbot's angles (e.g. his A and B angles) point to valid observations, and you could consider them as the detailed explanation in some cases for why you should not limit yourself to the last line. Consider the best of the last 3 lines, similar distance, surface (sounds familiar... ), not just the last line. Anything can happen in a given race. Although sometimes it can mean a horse is deteriorating in form (e.g. this bad last race), sometimes it doesn't. If you're cautious, or dubious, demand a price for stepping out on a limb (I call this: insurance) - in this race, given generously.
You can look at it as an "angle" ("longshot pattern", Taulbot "A" angle, etc) and gain extra confidence that this happens from time to time, or you can just say to yourself: "who cares about that last race, there was another one just a week or so earlier, and its a cheap maiden race, and it's running again within a month, so not a cripple..." and note that all the energy measurements line up (even before hiding that favourite). Those are the races to try to be around for; sometimes you have to bet against (and lose) or PASS several favourites (who may win, or may lose and you miss juicy longshots), but I notice Mum has 1 or 2 (sometimes more) of these kinds of hits per 20 races, and so do I (and others who have shared their wagering decision collections). It goes a long way to offset having to settle for 2-1 (net, on mutliple horses) winners, and can make hitting only 50% of your wagers still a profitable proposition. FTL, did you have a bet on this horse (I hope ) Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
07-11-2009, 01:54 PM | #24 |
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Posts: 878
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Mike,
Regarding Ray's angles (A & B) they are Performance angles, and have nothing to do as long shots standing alone angles. Granted, occasionally they will produce a winner here and there, but you must go fishing to get high % of winners. MNR angle A for 5K open claimers and under. 5.5F = 30.7 % winners 6F = 20.88 % winners 8F = 22.68 % winners Ciao Pino Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-11-2009 at 02:00 PM. Reason: easy does it... |
07-11-2009, 01:59 PM | #25 | |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Quote:
mike p.s- You blocked my email address
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 07-11-2009 at 02:05 PM. Reason: same as above... |
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07-11-2009, 02:06 PM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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arl 3rd..#4
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
07-12-2009, 03:45 AM | #27 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Hello Ted, yes I did. A 'small' bet. It is difficult for me to wager on an 0-35 maiden with a 1 for 87 jockey with much confidence, even though (with the horses and lines I used) he was my #1 TPR and #1 third fraction horse. I'll take it any way I can get it though!
I'm happy to report I had a 'nicer' bet on the horse at PEN. That horse (based on the horses and lines I used) was my #2 TPR and #2 third fraction horse. By the way, both of those posts came directly from the Las Vegas Hilton Race Book, where I was watching and wagering on those races.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
07-12-2009, 03:50 AM | #28 | |
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Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
I'm glad to see that Barb was able to put up a screen shot for you from RDSS.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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