Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class

[mikesal57]

going with the 5 & 12

[Ted Craven]

I am in awe of the depth of Matchup analysis around here! Here are my RDSS final contenders. I will be seeking wagers among the top 3, and hoping that #2 is still offered at a good price.

Good luck everyone (and welcome, lone speed)

Ted

[Bill Lyster]

Big races for big horses

Who has grade 1 or 2 credentials (win or place) 1-5-6-8-11-12-13

Tandems eliminate 2-3-4-7-8-9 and 13 which knocks out the 8 and 13 from the graded list.

Graded list is now 1-5-6-11-12 with the 10 as the lone early frontrunner who should get pressed into oblivion unless he gets the uncontested and open length lead that he needs. I think not today.

I think the 5 and 11 press early and try to take over heading for home, but against this competition and specifically against the 11 the 5 has faded in the past. My only concern about the 11 is some not quite stellar dirt performances. His grass and poly races are consistently good. I will keep him in for now. Eliminating the 5.

So now I am left with the 1-6-11-12

I am going to match everything against line 3 from the 6:

6: 48.1-112.0-136.3-149.2 where it closed 7-5-3 (within 2.1 at mile call)


1: won its grade 1 at 12 furlongs and against slow pace (114 ish); not very accomplished at 9 furlongs; runs from way back except once at 9 and then faded, so I will take last race

1: 47.8-112.8-138.3 closing 10-10-9 by position and 12-10-4.4 by lengths
note that the 1 beat the six in this race by .6ths of a length passing him late in stretch

11: Probably the 3rd of 3 horses in the group behind the lone E. Only knock I can find is that dirt routes project to about 149.8 or slower. Off last race fractions he is best, but good enough for dirt is the question.

11: 47.2 - 111.4 - 135.9 - 148.7, closing 4-3-1, winning off by 4


12: Won 3 graded stakes in a row on dirt and barely lost last one. Not in love with track class of graded races, but one was a grade 2. Part of the pack behind leader and may have best potential against this pace.

Last race: 45.4 - 112.0 - 136.7 - 149.2, running 4-4-3 while being only 1.2-1.1 and 1.5 lengths back. The slower early fraction of this race should help the 12 the most if the Remington track and time is real.


I think the 12 will be close enough to make the best move and then I like the 6. Both have done well at 9 furlongs in graded races. Big ?'s about 11.

I would box 12-6-11 for exacta and include the 1 in trifectas. Win on 12 and 6.

Good luck to everyone.


Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Well, question answered on the 11. Finish was 11-5-6 all of them legitimate Grade 1 or 2 types.

[RichieP]

AWESOME work by Bill H, Pete C and Tim B nailing the sweeeet 9/2 winning #11 as their solo pick! Mr. Hat would be very proud of all of you so a tip of the old "Stetson" your way gents

Newcomer "Lone Speed" (welcome!) and Ted C have the winner in their mix and Bill L has him in exacta consideration

Thank you EVERYONE for taking the time to participate. I hope you all are having a terrific weekend

[For The Lead]

The first thing I feel compelled to do is agree with Ted's assessment. There are several good posts on this race. I enjoyed reading them.

Well, here is my weekly review of the “matcher’s” race and all the usual disclaimers apply.
This is not the best race I have ever seen because there are issues with a few of the horses that keep them from getting lines. As you all might remember, I keep fairly strict guidelines regarding line selection, so we’ll see how it turns out.

This is a Grade I race so looking for horses that have been successful in graded races seems to be the order of the day.
OK, first things first. Let’s get rid of the pretenders, 2, 4, 7, 10, 13. They all have a ML=>20/1.
The remaining horses all have a race in the last 90 days so they all remain in for further scrutiny.


#1 – LINE 2, last race was 20 days ago at 10f and I do not use 10f races, line 2 was 67 days ago at 9f, this horse certainly has graded race experience and success at the top level of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#3 – LINE 2, last race was 21 days ago in the mud, I’ll excuse that race and go back one line from 62 days ago, I would rather have a line from a dirt track but there is not one available in the last 90 days, thius horses has had graded race experience and success although not at the same level as the 31 horse, there is no reason to go back further
#5 – LINE 2, last line was 27 days ago on the artificial surface and I will use that as an excuse to go back one line from 83 days ago on dirt, last race is the only race showing on the artificial surface and the horse may not have like it, many people would not use line 2 since the horse showed early speed and faded, however, ENERGY does NOT pick horses based on final time or speed ratings, line 2 shows this horse as a pace player, this horse has had graded race experience and success at the top levels of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#6 – LINE 3, interesting horse in that it shows two races across CD and neither was very good, my initial thought would be to eliminate this horse on that basis, but I will put it in and see what happens, last race was 20 days ago and the second race back was 55 days ago but at 10f and I do not use 10f races therefore line 3 becomes the line from 83 days ago at 9f on the dirt, this is another horse with experience and success at top level graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#8 – NO LINE, this is one of the horses with issues, the horse has two races in the last 90 days, both races are at 10f, since I don’t use 10f races so this horse will not be used, this horse has experience and success at top level graded races but I will stick with my guidelines, its’ last line isn’t good anyway
#9 – LINE 3, this appeared easy at first just use line 1, but the time was so slow perhaps because of the muddy track condition that using that line “dooms” the horse to failure in the software program, line 2 is at 10f and I do not use 10f races so line 3 becomes the line even though it was on the artificial surface, so line 1 was 21 days ago, line 2 was 48 days ago and line 3 83 days ago so the horse has 3 recent races, this is another horse with graded race experience although at lower levels of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#10 – NO LINE, although I dismissed this horse from the outset, this would not get a line no matter what, it’s last 4 races going back 96 days were all sprints, this horse appears to be a pace player and is very short on class having only had a 3rd place finish in a grade 3 race
#11 – LINE 1, this one is easy the last race is a win just 27 days ago, the only negative is that it was on the artificial surface, this horse has won a couple of grade II races and fits well with this group, there is no reason to go back further
#12 – NO LINE, I really don’t think this horse has a shot, the horse has had some graded race experience and success but al lower levels of competition, its’ last four race being at PrM, MNR, LaD and RP pretty much tells the story, if this horse is to be a factor it must run up on or near the lead and will have a hard time doing that with the #10 horse in the race as well as the #5 horse.

Below are my ENERGY screen shots. You should note two things.
1 – on screen4 ENERGY recommends “EARLY” and under the column heading “EP” you will see the number 1 and 2 ranked horses in that column are the #11 and #5 horses.
2 – on screen5 you will see that the #11 horse owns the first two fractions of the race (designated with “o.oo” at the first two calls)
You may remember a couple of weeks ago there was another horse that had this same attribute.
Another thing to notice is the #5 horse whose line may have been questionable turned out to be a pace player in ENERGY and the second choice based on the EARLY variegate.
The idea is to get horses in the software based on how they should run so the program can "see" the race and make its' best determination as to how the race will run and on that basis make an appropriate suggestion as to which horses may make the best wagers. If you take notice to the total energy figures, the #11 and #5 horses rank 3rd and 4th in total energy.

Anyway, I am just providing this for your information and hope you find it interesting.

[mikesal57]

Great Job again FTL....

Excellent reasons on selecting lines and all should pay attention
This , I believe, is the 4th time you've done this with exceptional results

[lone speed]

I agree with Mike's assessment of FTL's analysi for this race. One should take heed to his reasoning for choosing the lines that he did, especially on FTL reasons for choosing Mission's paceline..even though visually, the paceline may not appear to be the best line to choose. Old Thoromation would like the fastest pace line or the best sustained fraction even though a horse may have faded by several lengths facing the fastest pace of race or some fast sustained last fractions. Great analysis by FTL as I can always learn from examples. Nice to see that old thoromation is alive and well after so many years... I think Doc evolved from that program after some bitter partings with some fellow contributors..

Looking at your energy match up screen, I can see clearly that #11 Wise Dan dominates the 1st call match up handily and that he will be one tough foe at the wire even though he is not the #1 total energy horse.

[Boe777]

I am going a little of the subject here, how do you post screens from Rdss?
I could not figure out even how to print from Rdss.


Alex

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Boe777

I am going a little of the subject here, how do you post screens from Rdss?
I could not figure out even how to print from Rdss.

Alex

Alex,

I am answering your question here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=75952, to not interrupt the flow of this particular discussion. Any questions, ask in that thread. Hope to see your screenshot back here.

Good luck!

Ted