Who Gets the Lead

[fasthorses]

Is there a sound logic that can predict the 8 horse (Abbie Kates Way) to get the lead in the 1st at FL on Dec. 2nd? The horse wired the field and while I believe it to be an early horse and perhaps a need to lead type I just can't see how to predict it would take the lead.

[Bill V.]

Hi Fasthorses

Here is the horse you are asking about.

[Bill V.]

Without much other early pressure It used its ability to break well

I only see 1 other horse in the race who has ever stated 1st or 2nd in a sprint
That is the 9 horse

The 8 really seems to be the most likely to break fastest based on position and running style

[fasthorses]

Thanks, Bill. I guess I haven't been giving enough credit to the start position when I analyze early horses.

[Blackrose]

I will take a stab at this. Almost worse then betting lol
First thing is I need to know the POR so I hit the auto last line button
no clear leader but the 9 ran 2nd at 22.5 an 47
The 7 ran at this distance 2nd 1.13.6
so POR is 22.5 47 an 1.13.6 now I will try an pick lines conforming to this pace

1. out line 1 an 2 not fst not plus lines SR 34 against 70 horses
Tandem with the 2 finishes 1.15.3 17 back
2. line 1 fst plus line runs 22.5 47
3. out no plus lines 22.5 47
4. out no plus lines 22.5 47
5. out last line plus but doesn't conform to pace 23 47.6 1.14
6. out router only sprint is a 0 line sprint lines in routes don't conform to pace an noncompetitive
7. line 1 plus good pace 22.7 46.7 1.13.6
8. line 2 plus line runs 22.8 47.2 close first line plus line doesn't conform to pace but line 5 does 22.5 46.4 1.13.2 but a mud line using fst dirt lines since no other horses have mud lines
9. line 1 22.5 47 close plus line

Only four horses next go to Velocity POH screen
have 3 EP horses an one P horse
Will eliminate the EP horses

8 58.0 3 54.9 1 50.7 2
9 59.1 1 53.4 4 50.4 3
7 56.7 4 54.9 2 50.3 4

the 9 looks like it could get the lead on the 8 but will lose ground in the 2nd an 3rd fractions
the 7 can't gain ground on either the 9 or 8 really so out they go
That leaves just the 8 an 2 left run to the windows

Now in order to determine whether the 8 can wire the field I call witnesses
First the Velocity POH screen
8 ranks 2nd in F1 1st in SC an 1st in TS usually I like to see first in F1 an SC but 1st in TS is a big bonus
Next the energy screen 8 ranks first in E/ep
TPR E/L screen 8 ranks first in EPR an 1 on the E/L graph
BL/BL screen 8 ranks first in EPR TT an Hid
Plus the 2 is designated as a P an probably won't like to get the lead
Given all this the question is how does the 2 beat the 8. I can see the 8 just off the 2 around the turn on the outside an then opening up around the turn straightening out an running for daylight. An the jockey on the 2 beating the hell out of the 2 trying to catch the 8 in vain. Maybe the horse should throw the jockey an beat him or the 8 could get bumped out of the gate or stumble in which case the 2 wins.

The things that struck me with this race was while I did know the outcome before hand I didn't know the actual POR
I projected it at 22.5 47 1.13.3 it ran 22.4 47 1.14.1 not too far off given the mud. Second was the mud lines of the 8 an how they conformed to the POR they almost screamed out at me. It was like that can't be right only 1 horse has run in the mud an he runs to the POR in fact better than the POR not once but twice. Oh, an the favorite 5 finishing in the money I didn't think he would, but it's nice to be able to toss a less than even money favorite when they can't run to the POR.
Well thanks for letting me share
Jim