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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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09-18-2007, 09:03 AM | #21 |
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Step 3
Step 3 - Who is FAST in TODAY'S matchup
Now after projecting a pace with POSITIONAL early runners wasn't step 2 a total breeze? See what I mean by the projecting pace early on really does everything for you? so now we have our contenders/lines picked. here are 3 screenshots as we look for the CONFIRMING answer to our ORIGINAL stated 2 questions: 1) Who is FAST? 2) Who is fast based on TODAY'S matchup/projected pace? 1) Total Energy 2) Tpr (Cpr) 3) Total pace Potential (Tpp) 4) Who might be advantaged by TODAY'S matchup Who do YOU like man?
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09-18-2007, 09:06 AM | #22 |
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The Result
The result
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09-18-2007, 09:17 AM | #23 |
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Reality Check
ok so this race worked out great. Was it a fluke? Absolutely NOT.
Following this same EXACT procedure you have the 20/1 winner of last night's 1st race at Presque Isle Downs. FASTEST horse in the race after projecting pace. PERIOD. Now does this quirky way of working 5.5f races work always? NO and I lost a race last night at Mnr I believe sticking to focusing on the 5.5f lines ok? This SIMPLE way of looking at a race and making sure your BET actually has performed well before against TODAY'S matchup/projected pace will save you some bets on slow ass horses and also reward you with some solid value horses after applying the outline CONSISTENTLY. I have NO problem passing races/admitting i do NOT know what the heck is going on in todays race man. None whatsoever. I am a specialist not a general practitioner. I am in this for the MONEY and could care less if i have to pass 7-8 races on a card to get to the 1 or 2 that make sense and "line up" so to speak. I'll multi track to get my 10-20 plays a day. "Hat Helper" - FOCUS on races where you can project a pace (1c and 2c) from POSITIONAL running EARLY horses. All the best and good matching! Richie
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09-18-2007, 10:42 AM | #24 |
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Great job Rich in your presentation. As always there will be questions. I could be mistaken but when you first started this post it was about using the MU methodology via the adjusted velocity ratings. If I am seeing things clearly you have used adjusted times with really no mention of the velocity ratings. In addition, as to even the adjusted times you are using only exact distances but could I suppose use distances that are within 1/16F. I could be wrong and am interested in your opinion (or The Hat’s) but when using the adjusted times/velocity ratings we need to stay very close to the distance of the race because the adjustments for distances greater then 1/16F in so far as the MU methodology is concerned can be misleading.
Thanks, RR |
09-18-2007, 11:06 AM | #25 | |
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Quote:
THIS race i used all exact distances because of the quirky 5.5f distance. Hat taught me a year ago to really focus on 5.5f lines in 5.5f races ok? It has served me well fwiw Other races can be treated "normally". Regarding using the adjusted fractional times I realized after seeing the FPS reads we could probably get an EASIER "picture" of a proj pace and also contender/line selection using that instead of the FPS stuff. Does that make sense? I really do NOT want to get sooooo precise that a couple of feet per second is going to stop me from including a horse as a contender Robert. This is after all a horse race subject to a lot of random happenings. I DO want to have an idea that a horse or horses I am considering for a wager has been able to face and COMPETE against a pace VERY CLOSE to today's matchup. I also want to be able to see that my charge is FAST when facing this anticipated pace. The last piece in all this is: Am I being compensated for the risk in wagering? Am I getting a PRICE on my FAST horse(s)? That is the area where personal preferences come into play. Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 09-18-2007 at 11:11 AM. |
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09-18-2007, 12:43 PM | #26 | ||
True Disciple of Voodoo
Join Date: May 2006
Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby)
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Thanks Richie. Working with The Hat has improved your confidence. N-I-C-E win. Working with Mr. Bradshaw has also improved your teaching, which already is exceptional, to say the least. Please stick with The Hat like a siamese twin. We greatly benefit. You are getting results like this and technically, you are just past beginner into intermediary.....make's one wonder how dangerous you will be if he keep's on you and drilling you ...how much more MatchUp wonder and voodoo he has to show you . VoodooFan
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09-18-2007, 08:59 PM | #27 |
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Thanks Richie you have had the confidence all along.Jeff
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09-20-2007, 03:54 PM | #28 |
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Posts: 7,014
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Deja voux all over again - Yogi
I will lay out one more example using EXACT procedure.
This one the winner is a bit more chalky ok? Sorry but we have to report the low payers too Only pays $30.00 for the win and is IMPOSSIBLE to miss as the FASTEST horse against TODAY'S pace. IMPOSSIBLE. 1) We have a race where we CAN project pace based on early POSITIONAL running horse. KEY in my opinion to absolute EASE in working races using this method. KEY. 2) Only 3 horses qualify as TRUE contenders based on our previously stated criteria. 3 horses out of a field of 10 man. YES we throw slow ass horses OUT. 3) Once again our group of CONFIRMING readouts as to who is FAST completely LOCK IN on this Bomb. a- Total Energy b- Total Speed c- Total Pace Potential d- Tpr I will post FULL pp's for each horse so you will CLEARLY see we are NOT making the winner fit or deviating from our BASIC plan ok? Remember BASICS of Jim Bradshaw's matchup puts food on the table. This projecting of pace comes right from his 5 step approach. He helped me by giving me ideas to look at relating to software use and it is amazing when applied CONSISTENTLY. I also want to drop something else on you that will benefit multi track players. Goes against some of the things we read in older followups but IS a reality I am seeing and I work and bet races EVERY day of the week. Consider it and see if it helps you. "Rich remember slow ass horses in a software are going to screw up the readouts and land you on losers." - Jim Bradshaw
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09-20-2007, 05:25 PM | #29 |
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It would be very helpful if everyone saves their comments until Richie is finished with the race.I think this way it's easier to comprehend.Shoeless
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09-21-2007, 09:03 AM | #30 |
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Example race #2
I will show the original ( to see positional style/finish) and adjusted screens for each horse.
Distance of today's race = 6f dirt horse's 1 and 1a
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