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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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06-11-2011, 07:25 PM | #21 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 24
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Here goes. First of all, I wouldn't have bet this race(12F). I wouldn't even have worked it had it not been such a famous race. I did the race though telling PL4(pace launcher 4) it was a 10f race. I had five contenders to put in the program. 3,6,8,9,12 = Ruler, Nehro, Prime, Animal, and Shackleford. I tossed out contenders that had no recent decent form at this level. In a race of this type, I think a horse needs to have good recent form. Then I put in 3 lines for #3, 2 lines for #6, 3 lines for #8, 3 lines for #9, and 3 lines for #12. Not going back farther than the past 3 lines. Now, I got this race pretty much with Ruler On Ice on top. I wouldn't normally have posted here if I hadn't done well here. To get pacelines down to one per horse, I just kicked out all of the horses with lower energy and kept the top energy horse for each entry.
Pacelines: #3 = First line, #6 = First line, #8 = Second Line, #9 = Second Line, #12 = Second line. Here is how Ruler on Ice did on the readouts: (adjusted) #4 Ttl Energy, #2 Second Call Tied, #2 EPR, #1 LPR, #1 CPR, #1 FW, #1 BL, Odds = Even. So there it is. $51.50 Couldn't believe it. |
06-11-2011, 08:29 PM | #22 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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Some nice hits
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Congratulations - some nice hits available for Sartin players today, including the big race. I'm guessing we would have seen a different winner in the Belmont without the slow fractions provided by a sloppy track, but that kind of improvising is exactly what racing is all about. Cheers, B Jennet |
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06-12-2011, 10:22 AM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Belmont
BJ,
You asked who knew the #2 Stay Thirsty would run. I posted my top 4 VDC on friday #4 first, #2 second and the #6 & #8 tied for third. When I saw Teds post with the #3 as one of the 4 e/l 2.0 horses i figured he may be a win horse as Ted also had him second on RDSS2. Unfortunately I passed the Belmont because I had already hit the 10th race win and perfecta, and I have a rule that after I win big I quit. Most of the time this works out for the best. rmath |
06-12-2011, 10:38 AM | #24 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Richard, indeed you did post Stay Thirsty on top!
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I have heard from one RDSS user who hit the late Pick4 (races 10 - 13) for a share of the $142,000 mutuel. All in all, a profitable day. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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06-12-2011, 07:45 PM | #25 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 482
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Great Work folks.....
WOW - I passed the day as I saw the track was sloppy. Incredible picking folks.
Congrats and Happy Punting, JDL |
06-12-2011, 08:03 PM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
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Ted,
Extremely nice handicapping. Well done! Jim |
06-13-2011, 06:24 AM | #27 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 798
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Quote:
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06-13-2011, 08:15 AM | #28 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Perhaps that's not completely consistent, but with improving 3YOs, I do like to be guided by more recent signs of improvement/decline and I guess I thought I'd let the software take care of projecting lines to today's distance (if not accurately, to 12f!, then at least equally inaccurately for everyone). Actually, I thought much better of Nehro and Shackleford's chances among the contenders. It reinforces my observation that most times I have no idea who will win, but I do have pretty good confidence in which horses have a good chance to win, so after that, it's a mutuels game and it pays to be having your bets down when your good price contenders are going to pay well. The race ended up being somewhat of a crap-shoot after Animal Kingdom's equipment mishap at the beginning - it would have been a different race with him in contention. Sh*t happens - all the time ... Ted
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