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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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04-26-2016, 10:44 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The Late Pace Rating
There are 3 fractions, not two, Tim LT1 said it best in his dead on observation It takes two fractions. No single part of the race is "THE" rating
How can a Sustained horse win ?. It can win if it can be close enough to the fastest EPR rated horses. It need to be in position at the second call to over take the Early, Early Pressers and Pressers, It takes at least fractions 2 and often all 3 This is a nice winner today at Parx race 6 Here is my work up. First here are the conditions. |
04-26-2016, 10:46 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
I added my thoughts in notes in the lower right corner of each horses PP's
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04-26-2016, 10:48 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
5 6 7
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04-26-2016, 10:53 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Phase 1 TPR lessons
My readouts and thoughts
I showed in a couple of my horses the EPR ratings they ran against they were over 92 Now look at today who has the best EPR ? Its horse 5 with a 90.5 The 2 is 2 points or lengths behind The 4 is 4 lengths behind The 3 is 7 lengths back is 7 too much ? It has the good LPR 94 The 1 ! It will be 11 lengths back. It ran its pace line race against a 79 epr (it was on the lead) There is no way the 1 will see a early pace of 79 today. The top 3 TPR horse are 5 3 and 4. The top 3 VDC are 1 3 4 My bets 3 and 4 A Sustained and a Sustained presser Why? because they will be close enough to a moderate 90 EPR pace . With strong over 92 LPR ratings can over take the EP and Pressers I'm sorry it is only $15 You won't look like the smartest guy in the room. but I will take this every day Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 04-26-2016 at 11:47 PM. |
04-27-2016, 12:39 AM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quote:
Great example and great analysis...! I am commenting on your analysis of this race as it pertains to analyzing the Kentucky Derby or any other race. It behooves one to focus on the energy distribution in context of the early pace and NOT exclusively on one fraction exclusively like the LPR or the final fraction. So many discussions or message posts list the closing fractions of Derby contenders from their Derby prep races that they lose sight of analyzing the early pace that they ran against. Sometimes the best closer is the horse closest to the early pace. The early pace consists of two fractions and the energy expended to reach the 2nd fraction or the 6 furlong marker in conjunction with the last fraction is more important than focusing on the final fraction. Example: Horse A: 49.0 for 4F and 112.2(fifths) for 6F and 29.3 for the final fraction 29.3 for final fraction seems impressive but horse A did not exert much energy for his early pace expenditure. Horse B: 47.0 for 4F and 1:10.3 for 6F and 31.3 for the final fraction. Now even though this horse ran his final fraction 2 seconds slower than horse A. This horse exerted much faster early pace fractions that are two seconds faster than horse A. This horse should win this matchup; should they run against each other. Thanks again for your work-up of this race. |
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04-27-2016, 08:18 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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Great workup Bill. I would have used L 4 on the # 7 however it would have made no difference. I get the POR the same as you if using only TPR but normally I get it from the original screen when looking at lines to select. Regardless getting it is the main point as few pay attention to it at all. I doubt many here caught what you did or how you got it.
As I said in a previous post its a hidden class drop that the public is unaware of, but then again that's good for us. The better horses do run 2 good fractions in a row. That is they carry their speed further and also decelerate the least to include E types. In TPR this is a little harder to detect but a better EPR helps for S types etc. , that is not being way out of it that might indicate a one run closer. In RDSS I use HE to determine this. But it can be done in TPR. The # 4 also was the best TPR. Another separator that I've found to be good is horses that are very close in TPR that have the better LPR have momentum vs. deceleration and are the better horses for separation in the majority of races. In this ex. look at the 1 & 2 ,one length difference in TPR but the 1 is accelerating and the 2 is decelerating. Choice the 1. Ditto with the 3 & 5 ,one length diff. in TPR but the 3 is accelerating and the 5 is decelerating. Choice the 3 over the 5. With that you come up with 4,3,1. I don't normally use this for the whole race but I do use it as a separator for CLOSE HORSES AND TIES IN TPR. A down and dirty look at deceleration or Entropy? V/DC. Great work up Bill. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-27-2016 at 08:21 AM. |
04-27-2016, 08:45 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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Bill,
Nice workup and hit |
04-27-2016, 08:49 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Lone speed
I took your figures and converted the times to phase 1 EPR and LPR ratings
These number are raw, so lets say they both ran on the same track and distance and the dtv was 17 or 0. I made the distance 8.5. Lets say horse A is a sustained Horse B went wire to wire Horse A Sustained 112.2 = 83 EPR 29.3 = 99 LPR = 182 TPR Horse B Early 110.3 = 92 EPR 31.3 = 89 LPR = 181 TPR Yes in a match race I would take horse B Because horse A would run positionaly, In a match race. Horse A would not run a 29.3 LPR because It would use more energy early trying to keep up. In a race with other horses mixed in If nobody can keep up with horse B early, It will still conserve energy, and horse A now has to pass horses . So Its so important that the LPR is earned against today's pace of race. Very nice post Lone Speed Just looking at a LPR alone would trick many people |
04-27-2016, 08:53 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks
Thanks Mitch
I asked Ted to include the VDC readout on the TPR screen cause I use it as a secondary factor, once I see the phase 1 readouts GS Bill |
04-28-2016, 09:08 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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It'll be a great addition to TPR screen and help those who can't see it otherwise. Myself I love the old Entropy readout as it makes better sense to me and is more easily understood by me. With it I can see separation better than V/DC.
I use V/DC however don't rely on the rankings as there are too many ties. And the 0.5 vs O.8 stuff drives me crazy, obviously the 0.5 is better but I can't visualize the difference or how much difference is there. I wish it were the same but in a different format. Anyway that's on my wish list. I'm big on gaps but don't find any or very few in V/DC. Somewhat like FPS( feet per second) use to drive me insane trying to determine the differences in lengths. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-28-2016 at 09:13 AM. |
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