Santa Anita 3-09-2013 Sat. Race 3

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by lone speed

As We can see, great variety of analyses ....great to have everyone jump in here...

I can always learn with an open mind with each person's different point of view...

I hope others that are new will take heed and see the reasons behind the views....win or lose...

Thanks everyone...

Come on !!! Richie...honeymoon is over....

Here here.... You were right on Lone Speed about the 2 taking the race away from the 1. Nice job to those who called OTE and had the 6 in the mix.

[Bill V.]

Hi guys I'm sorry I got in late .. Thanks for the race !

Here is my phase 1 work up
I was not happy with the 4 because it was short and I had a question about the added distance

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by patecatl

Wow, what happened to the 4. Did anyone catch it?

Just saw the replay. Don't think he broke real sharp but he had good position early behind the leaders. Ran on the inside down the backstretch, lost ground, and he was eased by Gomez.

Donato had no real excuse. Game race by the improving Spit Ball.

[patecatl]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

Just saw the replay. Don't think he broke real sharp but he had good position early behind the leaders. Ran on the inside down the backstretch, lost ground, and he was eased by Gomez.

Donato had no real excuse. Game race by the improving Spit Ball.

Yeah it seemed to me he had to have let off. I thought 1 and 4 would end up 1,2 infact I was going to do 1,4 exa but decided to pass.

[For The Lead]

I'm pretty much on the same page as Bill V.

I have always found that it is easier to pick the winner if you first eliminate the losers. So, following that procedure, here we go.

Here are the horse that do NOT get a line.

#2 - has one race since June of 2012. It was a sprint race and the horse did not run well. OUT.

#5 - in its' last race it finished 5th in an 8 horse field, so, it did not finish in the money. It did NOT make a good middle move (between the first and second calls) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. Now, we could go back to line two, but what is the "valid" excuse? There isn't any. Line two is a good race against $10,000 claimers. Line one is a bad race against $16,000 claimers and today it is running against $20,000 claimers. OUT.

#7 - I don't think anybody has any problem throwing this horse out. It just doesn't fit at this track and this class level.

Ok, every other horse gets a line...their LAST LINE, because every other horse has a good last line. There is no reason to change it. They are on the VERY SAME surface and at either the VERY SAME or similar distance. Here they are.



As you can see, the #1 and #6 are the counter energy horses.



Herre we see that counter energy. The #1 has the best first and second fractions, while the #6 has the best third fraction+ total energy



On the BL/BL the #1 and #6 ranked 1,2.



And, of course, the results (chart) of the race.

[lone speed]

I want to thank everyone who participated......

BOTTOM LINE :WE CAN ALL LEARN.....

I want to especially thank Bill V. and FTL...

Using FTL's CLEAR and CONCISE pacelines selection got this claiming race.....

Many thanks..

Capcondo...

Congrats on getting the winner in the mix!!