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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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02-23-2016, 01:50 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Review of TP race 1 2/21/16
"Bill The winner had an 11 point advantage on TPR It won !"
This email was about Race 1 from Turfway on Sunday 2/21/16 The is a race i was interested in. I didn't bet, I was traveling home to San Diego. But I wanted to see ho i would have worked it. I just worked the race Here is what I made out. The first thing I did was look at the conditions and he race rating it was an 85 I had RDSS2 auto select the last line so I could check the fulcrum I decided the 8 would be the fulcrum 90.5 Next I selected my running styles Horse 1 EP Horse 2 EP Horse 3 P Horse 4 EP Horse 5 E7 Horse 6 Ugly Horse 7 EP Horse 8 P Lots of early pace. The 8 2 and 7 is a tandem Next I will post the PP's |
02-23-2016, 02:31 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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My lines and readouts and thinking
Horse 1 2 3 4 5
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02-23-2016, 02:35 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horse 6 7 8
last 3
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02-23-2016, 02:40 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Match and TPR screen
here is my Phase 1 TPR screen readouts
Look it over i will post the results in a little while Thanks Bill V. |
02-23-2016, 04:52 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Phase 1
The 7 off line 2 earns a very strong TPR
My other "could win" fulcrum horse # 8 places Looks like a couple of horses scratched but this to is an advantage for me when I use Phase 1. When a horse or horses scratch , it does not change the readouts of the horses still in the race. so the 7 and 8 and 5 are still the top 3 TPR The result chart |
02-23-2016, 05:31 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Bill V…
Nice work up of this claiming race. Looks like they ran to the Phase 1 rankings… It seems that you looked at the match-up but mainly, through the Phase 1 energy distribution numbers exclusively. Looking at #5 Aziperform; even though this horse is ranked #2 on Total Energy, one can see clearly that it does not hold any “early” pace advantage as there are several in the race with a 92.5 EPR rating on Phase 1. If it were to win the early matchup in this race; it is quite “deficient” in LPR compared to #7 Miss Omeara or #8 Queen of Spring. Thanks for the work up of this race.. |
02-23-2016, 08:35 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,
Nice call on that race and like your presentation as well |
02-23-2016, 08:41 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,
Wasn't something said in one of the FU'S by putting in 5.5 furlong lines in a longer race that they will come up with better late numbers |
02-24-2016, 06:37 PM | #9 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Ls
Quote:
Thanks, I kind of look at it a blending of 4 concepts 1. My interpretation of the Hat Check 5 steps 2. Form factors, more importantly looking for form defects that will effect the match up. Especially early pace horses, 3. The pace line selection outline from the Pace Line Manual 4. The Phase 1 methodology, a. Running the last line on every horse in the race b. Finding the fulcrum horse c. eliminating non competitive horses by matching their EP, LP,and TPR energy expenditures relative to the other horses in the race, and also against it's total pp shown history. d. looking for horses with advantages on EP,LP, and TPR GS Bill |
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02-25-2016, 12:25 AM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Post from Tipton A Gilbert
Bill,
Thanks for sharing your "modus oparandi" Now if I can somehow optimize the best procedures from your method and those of Tipton A Gilbert. Quote:
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