Randomness / Chaos / Order / Wagering Strategy

[Ted Craven]

The following is an email received from a long-time and very knowlegable Sartin Methodology student/teacher - Tim Y. He has a very interesting take on the potential practical uses of order within Chaos, as described by Dr Sartin and by other great minds who have written on the subject, particularly as relates to wagering strategy - a crucial aspect of this game which perhaps does not receive as much intelligent discussion as it ought to.

Discussion welcomed!

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When great instructors come along, they, of course, leave many things to different people. I found the Sartin Methodology the freshest, newest and most innovative way of approaching a horse race I ever found.

One of those innovative, PHILOSOPHIC aspects that many do not get was his idea of the either/or, the yin/yang, or the blending of opposites. Many times in the Follow Up he suggested good reading material to bolster this idea from Eastern philosophy (Chaos, Complexity, and my favorite of the group, The Tao of Physics by physicist Fritjof Capra. In this text (surprisingly) he compared the duality of life (at the molecular level) to the inherently similar philosophies of the great religions of the world. He, like Dr. Sartin, proposed that NOTHING is an absolute, that within each extreme of any concept, a little of the polar opposite remains. The very representation of the famous yin/yang symbol demonstrates that. IN other words, the combination or fusion of the two cosmic forces; freq. attrib., esp. as yin-yang symbol, a circle divided by an S-shaped line into a dark and a light segment, representing respectively yin and yang, each containing a 'seed' of the other.

I have been an avid photographer most of my adult life and prefer working in black and white film. In the darkroom each and every print one makes demonstrates this idea as there are rarely any complete whites or blacks in a print, but rather a 256 step gradation between these polar opposites. In the real world we must understand this same cosmic truth: most of our world is made of shades of gray not either/or. He is saying, I believe, that there are no pure early horses and no pure late ones but that EACH has some of the opposite (potentialities) within it.

While this aspect of the idea might be hard to relate to handicapping (knowing how to balance the best earlies with the best lates), I have found, through his teaching, a completely workable application of the either/or and the yin/yang. It is on the other side of the coin, in wager creation.

We work (in the methodology) with facts: segmental velocities, % medians, and the compounded ratings made from those observed and measured truths. We calculate, based upon the match up, which, if any, of the racing styles or total energy, etc, will be better suited to the projected pace of today’s race. This is all well and good. But even with all this very powerful data on our side, we often miss out on the other side of the coin: proper wager creation. How many exotic bets had that one horse that did not fit the facts we so closely adhere to?

Over the past four years I have been hard at work investigating that transition to the other side of the equation. I was fortunate enough to have many of the statistical anomalies answered by quite a few marvelous texts on the study of RANDOMNESS. First, two by Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness and his second book The Black Swan show how our cognitive abilities have glaring holes in them even within the dome of factual statistical truth. This has also been substantiated by Nobel prized winning economist Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow. A final contribution comes from the very good book, The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow. These authors discuss GOOD statistical evaluations and their limitations. There is much in the statistical field that is made inaccurate by confirmation bias and the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: predicting horse performance based upon pedigree, for example, is chock full of holes.

Now think about it: we have at one extreme an ordered factual evaluation of the elements we know are salient to understanding a horse race’s genesis. On the other side of the duality, there lies randomness and unpredictability. This is the same duality, the yin/yang that Dr. Sartin promoted all those years ago. To embrace both his, and the Eastern philosophers’ idea of opposites, we have to do the same thing: realize that a little bit of both exists within the polar opposite of the other. Each betting experience must then work with the idea that we only have LIMITED abilities to predict the future based upon the logic and statistical realities of PAST performances, and must then “fill in the blanks” with that polar opposite that randomness brings to that future reality.

Just about all this applies to exotic betting rather than the two horse straight win bet dutch that has so long been the backbone of wagering.

Example: we all know of the 55% solution and the place horse often being a contra-energy animal. Many times that place animal is one of the many random aspects of the day and often produces big profits. You only have to look at the past few Kentucky Derbies to see that. IN the trifecta, I have found an ongoing pattern of my best two top WIN picks running 1st and 3rd (the famous, though uncashable SPLTIZACTA that I hit so often) and applying the randomness philosophy of including many choices in that open spot, some big numbers at the payout window have suddenly appeared.

Think of what I call it: Order within Chaos, the either/or, the yin/yang applied to wager creation. It will help you get over those wagers when the logical horses run 1 2 4 in a trifecta.

Tim

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[Terry Riggs]

All I can say is WOW! You have my full attention.

Thank You


Terry

[lone speed]

Ted....

So this is a letter by Tim Yakteen?.?.

Great post.....thought provoking and refreshing!!!

In a futile attempt to simplify in a couple of sentences in "layman's terms"....the dominant winning horse exerts the most energy overcoming/ or sets the pace of the early match up while the default horse who lags far behind the early duel of the early pace fractions to pick up the pieces to get the second slot of a race match up.

Energy versus deceleration...most energy expended counter against the least deceleration in the final fraction of a race matchup....

Ying and Yang....two different analyses to arrive at the most optimal prediction of the top two finishers of a race match up...

Thanks for posting a great insightful writing...

Lone speed

[Ted Craven]

Yes, by Tim Yatcak.

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Yes, by Tim Yatcak.

Tim yakteen is a trainer on the SoCal circuit.

[sureshotlink]

" It takes chaos to give birth to a dancing star"

I am all ears!!

[wilbur porter]

Very Deep. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I always enjoyed reading Tim's post. He has a great mind and with his scientific (and photographic) background he has a valuable and unique viewpoint of horse racing.
Discovering and relating Eastern Philosophic concepts and ideas to our Western way of living is not a new endeavor and has manifested in many aspects of Western thought and living for hundreds, if not thousands of years, whether in the fields of science (alchemy = chemistry = the transmutation of the human soul), quantum physics and the Dancing Shiva (Nataraj), the dialogues of David Bohm and Krishnamurti ( For example, what is order, and can the human mind which is of itself of the nature of chaos and disorder perceive order), or the psychology (Carl Jung, Richard Wilhelm and particularly The I Ching Book of Changes).
There have been many who have followed "discovering" while walking along this path. One of the most frequent and pronounced manifestations of along this path is the Western propensity to "walk on the other side of the road". What I mean by this is that we westerners digest and process such concepts as "Yin and Yang" and the Tao, not as the Orientals themselves who experience these ideas as of a living religious nature, within and without, but as we might discern and study a phenomena or object in a labaratory or in a distant galaxy.
Such was the fate of many ancient alchemists (scientists, scholars, and religious figures) who, in their laboratories constantly sought the process to transmute lead into gold via a chemical processes. It was a decades-long, lifetime pursuit ( alchemy was the precursor to modern chemistry). They were certain that there was an unknown process.
Dr David Bohm and J. Krishnamurti held many dialogues on the subject of "Order and Chaos" over the years. Mr. Krishnamurti often pointed out to Dr. Bohm that it seems that the human mind, which is itself of the nature of chaos, is unable to understand or perceive "Order" if order really exists, and that perhaps it is only when one really "sees" this, that one finds order. Can one find order by using the tool of Chaos? Will we miss the sign by walking on the wrong side of the road?
My point is that I have great respect for Tim's ideas and efforts and the contribution that he has made to this forum. I have the highest respect for Dr. Sartin, the Hat and others who have formulated this methodology. But it's not just about handicapping!!! It's a process.
I would like to point out that in many ways we are all like those alchemists. Many of us will spend much of our lives in trying to turn lead ( Racing Forms, speed figures, cheating trainers, models, pars, statistics, softwares, etc) into Gold ( aka as winning mutuels, High R.O.I.'s). "There must be a way to turn lead into Gold!" "There must be a way to turn handicapping into money!" I definitely have this pattern in my own life.
For me, from my vantage point, the genius of Dr. Sartin and the others is that the methodology transcended the boundaries of horse racing handicapping. It was a process that utilized many currents from a multitude of disciplines to not only teach handicapping techniques, but to initiate an ongoing process of inner growth as well. Apparently many were transformed. The Alchemists themselves were unaware of the process for the most
part. Only a few would come to understand. When perusing through the forum, it is not too difficult to see those who are the most successful at the art of handicapping and living. They go hand in hand. Are not many of us not like the alchemists?
I understand that my response has apparently little to do with "the technique" of handicapping". But I feel certain that there is more to successful handicapping than crunching numbers. Perhaps the best wagering strategy would be to perceive the play of opposites within and without. The results of our handicapping are also dependent on our inner attitude and thoughts. One might attain some understanding of the "Yin" and "Yang" principles and the alchemical process through a long use of the Princeton University Baynes translation of the Wilhelm version of the I Ching.

[Ryan.p.coli]

This was a great post.

I strongly suggest reading all 3 of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's books to anyone here that has not already done so. Since Tim does not mention the last book in his note, I will do so here.

Taleb's 3rd book, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, touches on how various things benefit from shocks. Whenever I hear the word "Anti-fragile," I think about it from a finance (and a fantasy football) perspective. The easiest way for me to explain the concept is through an investment that will benefit from market shocks. The less order, the stronger the investment gets. A good example would be a Volatility option investment. If VIX (Market Volatility, also knows as the "Fear Index") spikes, then an investor gets a big payout. I don't recommending allocating a remotely significant portion of your portfolio in these investments (Taleb recommends 80% of a portfolio to completely risk-less assets and a small portion to antifragile investments), but it can be a hedge to a portfolio that is heavily weighted in equity markets.

The easiest way to relate this to horse racing is through the matchup. In other words, if we're examining a race where we expect disorder, we'll want to bet the horse that benefits most from the disorder. IE: If you expect a blistering pace, bet the best sustained horse (But you already knew that... didn't you).

[Mr.Pagine]

Tim,

As usual, another incredible thought provoking post. Your years of following this great game, has done you well.

Hope to see you in the next couple of weeks up at the Rexdale Oval to continue the "Betting" discussion.

Happy Punting, and may all of your tickets cash.

JDL