|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
08-18-2021, 02:34 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Bob,
Any variant below -15 and above + 15 is abnormal. When a variant falls outside this range the accuracy of it comes into question. Lets say a variant is +20, well is it that or a +21 or +25? Especially on dirt off tracks, or high class turf races that are left on the turf after real heavy rain. What is the difference between heavy or slow turf line? View abnormal variants with suspicion. There are degrees of heavy, degrees of slow and even degrees of fast. Not all fast tracks are the same fastness. Any Factor in racing must be put in context or perspective, this includes variants. One should ask; What is the norm for the field or better yet what is the norm for my contenders? If your using the recommended settings the program should take care of these inequities; Using 50% of the variant as suggested by Sartin your actually using 7.5 not -15 or +15. That's plenty. In the DRF a 10 variant would equal 5 lengths, therefore you can see how easily you can adjust yourself right out of a race, or in other words make a horse a contender for win or downgrade from win. In RDSS its hard to put it into beaten lengths because the adjustments vary by distance of Fraction etc. so its not clear and concise but its there. I know some one will ask; What if 4 contenders are all -under 0 and one is +15? Well putting it in context I would say its abnormal which is why I review variants after all lines are chosen. This really doesn't happen too often but can happen. I.E. an East Coast horse where tracks tend to be slower ships to say a California track. Or vise verses. I would look for another line, and if none than trust the program. You won't see this often but is a possibility particularity on Breeders Cup Day. Hope that answers your question Bob. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-18-2021 at 02:40 PM. |
08-19-2021, 09:03 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
|
Thanks
Mitch
|
08-19-2021, 09:55 AM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
|
Bill, Your findings in post 6, that 84% of all winners have all four ratings ( VDC-CSR-PL & BPP ) are identical to mine and mine cover over 8,000 races in the past 7 years.
My latest group of 800+ races I used the settings of 100DTV and The programs setting of + or- 15.( I used these settings after talking to Mitch) and I found no change in the % of contenders that won. The reason I use 100% is because the CSR is more accurate being a compounded rating taken from the last 4 races. (In my testing I found that there was a 7% increase in the winners in the top 5 CSR using this setting.) I applaud you for your research, I know how much time it takes. Rmath |
08-19-2021, 11:06 AM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Now, I just need to find a way to be consistent and win.
Just wondering Richie, when you changed to 100 DTV did the stats on any of the other three factors change appreciably? Thanks, Bill |
08-19-2021, 12:07 PM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Richie is correct about the variant effecting the CSR. The amount of variant or size from a zero base will determine any effect. Obviously the larger the variant the more effect. What tracks you play also has an effect. A track like SA won't have much of an effect because it tends to be very consistent with little variations in weather and variants.
I use 50% adjustment of the variant because I don't use CSR within the program and that is Sartin's recommendation. My view of the CSR is similar to pace line selection in that there are bad lines or bad SR's within the last 3 or 4 races. Even through you can throw out a line, there are situations where 2 or 3 must be discounted and that can't be done within the program. Something on my wish list would be the ability to discount lines, much like Brohamer did for inappropriate information. Either by lining a line out or a check box to do away with the line, naturally also the ability to bring it back. Like a pace line it could be automatic or user adjusted. A wish but I'm not holding my breath and will keep doing my present approach or regular. It works. The present CSR does an admirable job for instant gratification but precision is rewarded along with attention to detail. Note variant settings will also effect V/DC and other pace factors. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-19-2021 at 12:12 PM. |
08-19-2021, 12:34 PM | #26 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Great example of what I was trying to say from below. Notice how the ASRs get lower when the horse runs farther. After a slow pace line 10 the ASR improves to 88, then retreats when two tries at 6.5 to 84 and 82, then back up to 85 at 6f, down to 82 for 7f, back up to 84 at 6f and further up to 89 (very close to line 9), back down to 82 at 6.5 and once again a little faster for 6f at 85. So for today's distance we have ASRs of 84-82-82 from the bottom up.
I am using line 2 for today's race. If this race was at 6f, I would use one of the higher 6f lines, if at 7f, I would use the lone 7f line and not give the horse the benefit of the doubt for running faster when not running as far. The TPR number is +10.2 which is right where it should be. Quote:
|
|
08-19-2021, 12:42 PM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
|
Bill, the only change was in the VDC rating.
PL & BPP are not affected by using the 100 setting. I got 7% more winners using the 100 setting in CSR. Like Doc said : If you can get 1 more winner in 20 races Go with the change. Richie |
08-19-2021, 12:42 PM | #28 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Quote:
Thanks Mitch. |
|
08-19-2021, 12:57 PM | #29 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Quote:
Thanks, |
|
08-19-2021, 01:51 PM | #30 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
|
Good thread, thanks to everyone sharing their insights
Jeff |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
A Saratoga Saturday | Latekick | Selections | 35 | 08-05-2016 02:12 PM |
Saratoga 2015 - PaceandCap Weekend ? | Ted Craven | General Discussion | 5 | 03-30-2015 08:07 AM |
Alabama Stakes 2014 Saratoga | Ted Craven | Races of Interest | 5 | 08-16-2014 02:19 PM |
** Update: Saratoga 2012 Plans | Ted Craven | 2012 | 48 | 08-17-2012 11:55 AM |
Pace and Cap / Sartin Methodology Weekend at Saratoga 2010 | Ted Craven | 2010 | 5 | 07-26-2010 11:48 AM |