Hidden Fraction and how to utilize it

[sq764]

I am curious if someone could elaborate on the hidden fraction and when it should be acknowledged and utilized in contender selection..

Yesterday race 4 Delta Downs, the 10 horse was #2 Hidden Fraction, #2 Turn Time and 4th in late pace... I pay close attention to turn time, especially on price horses... He won and paid $77..

I was curious if the hidden fraction was a key..

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by sq764

I am curious if someone could elaborate on the hidden fraction and when it should be acknowledged and utilized in contender selection..

Yesterday race 4 Delta Downs, the 10 horse was #2 Hidden Fraction, #2 Turn Time and 4th in late pace... I pay close attention to turn time, especially on price horses... He won and paid $77..

I was curious if the hidden fraction was a key..

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There are a number of reasons why this horse woke up.
The horse was steadily improving in his last 3 races.
The jockey trainer combination is a successful one and they took off the blinkers. This horse had the best late pace figure in this field but his hidden energy and turn time ratings were far from from the best.

Honestly, I would have discounted this horse because the race shape favored an early type but being that this track is the consummate bull ring, there's no accounting as to how the race can go and normality goes out the window.

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by sq764

I am curious if someone could elaborate on the hidden fraction and when it should be acknowledged and utilized in contender selection..

Yesterday race 4 Delta Downs, the 10 horse was #2 Hidden Fraction, #2 Turn Time and 4th in late pace... I pay close attention to turn time, especially on price horses... He won and paid $77..

I was curious if the hidden fraction was a key..

hidden energy is a chaos math composite of a horse's ability in the 2nd and 3rd fractions.a A good ranking here indicates a horse that may have moved slower out of the gate but began pressing and/or overcoming the pace in final two splits.a high HE rank can also be earned by a horse who has either an inordinately fast TT or 3rd fraction only.check your FPS @ energy and determine from the numbers themselves...from follow-up 74.

Cheer's,

Sureshotlink
Beaumont,ca

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by sq764

I am curious if someone could elaborate on the hidden fraction and when it should be acknowledged and utilized in contender selection..

Yesterday race 4 Delta Downs, the 10 horse was #2 Hidden Fraction, #2 Turn Time and 4th in late pace... I pay close attention to turn time, especially on price horses... He won and paid $77..

I was curious if the hidden fraction was a key..

First, it should NOT be used in contender “selection”. Lines should not be given to a horse until AFTER the contender selection process is completed. This isn’t “my” advice, it is “Doc’s” advice. Doc said 90% of your handicapping should be done BEFORE you turn on your computer. He also said, when you turn your computer ON, don’t turn your brain OFF. This is in the library. Look it up!

Second, you should be keeping a model.

Third, apply it when “YOUR” model indicates it should be used, meaning your model indicates it has been a predictor of winners in the past based on “YOUR” contender selection and line selection.

Ten people could be working the same race and all ten could have a different “hidden energy” horse. That is because they all used different horses and lines. What YOU get is based on YOUR work!

Let me offer an illustration using the information you provided and then arbitrarily filling in other information. Remember, this is just for illustration.

Look at the race in the “parts or segments” that make up the race. You have;
First fraction
Second fraction
Second call
Third fraction
Finish

Let’s say you have an 8 horse field (the average size). Let’s further say that all 8 horses are real contenders and all 8 horses get a line. We’ll further say that the line selection was such as to properly indicate each horses running style. Now I’m only going to use two hypothetical horses, one that will have the lead and the other who will not have the lead. If you applied rankings to each horse, this is what our two horses might look like.

Horse……1st frac……2nd frac…..2nd call…..3rd frac….finish
A……………..1………….….4……………....1…………..…6…….…….5
B……………..8………….….2……………....5………..……4…….…….4

Horse “B” represents the horse you talked about, with a second fraction (turn time) ranking of “2”, a third fraction (late pace) ranking of 4th and I gave it a finish time ranking of 4th, since from the information you provided it doesn’t seem as though this horse finished in the top couple of total energy horses.

While horse “A” is out there setting the pace, horse “B” is last at the first call.
If Horse “B” has any aspirations of winning this race, he had better get his butt in gear now, so his second fraction better be among the top couple of horses for that fraction. Since those types of horses are starting to run at this point, they are generally moving faster than the pacesetter, so I have given horse “A” a ranking of 4th for the second fraction.
At the second call I still have horse “A” ranked 1st, but the horses behind him have started their runs. Horse “B” only ranks 5th at the second call, so he still has a lot of work to do.
Finally, horse “B” shows a third fraction ranking of 4th (late pace) which means it is not making much of an impact on the outcome at this point and since his total energy ranking is also 4th, it doesn’t seem he will get there today.
On this basis, horse “B” has a good turn time, but hidden energy appears to be questionable. Now you said your horse ranked 2nd for BOTH turn time and hidden energy. The hidden energy ranking would be based on the other horses in the race which I can’t see, but no matter.

If your horses rankings looked like this
8th…..2nd…..5th…..2nd….1st

Rather than this
8th…..2nd….5th….4th….4th
I would give it a good chance to win.

Obviously the horse you mentioned won regardless of any scenario I create, but my point was to simply illustrate the value (or not) of the turn time and hidden energy factors along with keeping records to help you with your determination.