re-education - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 08-02-2016, 06:30 PM

I have spent the last 5 years re-tooling my approach to this game, evaluating my processing and authenticating what is relevant and what is not. Streamlining the decision making has lent better, crispier outcomes.

This tour began with the simplest of levels and that is HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS.

The thought processes involved are usually mired in psychologically erroneous inhibitions and too much dead weight (the classic process of self confusion brought on by OVER EVALUATION of what is more than likely a much simpler process, "paralysis by analysis"). Great works like BLINK by Malcolm Gladwell, Thinking Fast Thinking Slow, by Noble Prize winner Khanaman, Smart Choices by Keeney Hammond and Raiffa, etc. discuss the many influences that are at work sub rosa, each and every time we confront the many controls that work together in rendering a decision.

I found that we all carry dogmatic beliefs (which are NEVER put to the statistical test) that are constantly adhered to in spite of their overall relevance to the ultimate decision. So many of these influences work at a subliminal level unless one sets out initially to expose them as such. Weight, workouts, trainers, jockeys, superficial and erroneous man made class levels (does the HORSE even know if he/she ran against at 10K or allowance horse?) etc...MOST of these ideas are about HUMANS and not the ultimate aspect of the race: THE HORSE....the ONLY one doing the running!

MORE than anything else, this decision process as COMPLETELY SEPARATED the handicapping and wagering steps to ONLY consider them in that order: Handicapping to WAGER and never back the other way.

You are looking for the best $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ opportunity NOT particularly the best handicapping situation. When they jive all the better.

Learn to look at this game as an INVESTOR, and NEVER a handicapper (they are frankly a dime a dozen so take the more difficult step). Be a complete player just like a commodities trader, real estate broker or stock market analyst.

MikeB · 08-02-2016, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Streamlining the decision making has lent better, crispier outcomes.

This tour began with the simplest of levels and that is HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS.

The thought processes involved are usually mired in psychologically erroneous inhibitions and too much dead weight (the classic process of self confusion brought on by OVER EVALUATION of what is more than likely a much simpler process, "paralysis by analysis"). Great works like BLINK by Malcolm Gladwell, Thinking Fast Thinking Slow, by Noble Prize winner Khanaman, Smart Choices by Keeney Hammond and Raiffa, etc. discuss the many influences that are at work sub rosa, each and every time we confront the many controls that work together in rendering a decision.

Good post Tim.

I have been looking at the same things. I have Khaneman's book, but haven't started it yet. I am currently reading "Risk Intelligence" by Dylan Evans. He says that risk intelligence is the ability to judge the accuracy of information that you are using to make a decision. It is having neither too much nor too little confidence in the decisions that you are making.

There is a brief interview with Evans here:
http://www.slate.com/articles/health...bilities_.html

And a 15 minute video of the presentation he made at TED called "What Can We Learn from Expert Gamblers?" here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jyokhjUCyk

Also the first chapter is on the Amazon page for the book, with some good stuff about an old study of horse players (harness track) who displayed risk intelligence.
https://www.amazon.com/Risk-Intellig...ds=dylan+evans

Tim Y · 08-02-2016, 11:46 PM

I saw that video on TED and took the Risk Intelligence test. GOOD info.

Others to read are about our tendency to put cause and effect on many phenomena that are simply random in nature: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets and The Black Swan (both by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ) and the wonderful The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow

It is of UTMOST importance to realize that MOST outcomes were multifactorial in causation and the majority have NO inner "structure."

sureshotlink · 08-03-2016, 12:41 AM

We all should have the courage to perform self regression every now and then!

Educational post Tim,

Paul link
Los Angeles, CA

Mitch44 · 08-03-2016, 08:13 AM

The hardest thing for man to do is look into a mirror and give an honest account of what they observe. While easy for others not so for individuals. Their stubborn resistance to change and accept new ideas leaves most in a quagmire they can't climb out of. Desire doesn't cut it. Testing and change bring about progress and by doing the work yourself the results are never forgotten and have a more reinforcing appreciation than that which comes easily.

Mitch44

MikeB · 08-03-2016, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44

The hardest thing for man to do is look into a mirror and give an honest account of what they observe. While easy for others not so for individuals.

There's nothing wrong with my handicapping. I lost that last race because the jockey is a bum and the trainer wasn't trying.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Mitch44 · 08-03-2016, 11:46 AM

MikeB,

I'm

MAO,thanks for the enlightenment as it made my day. We've all met those guys at one time or another.

Mitch44

Tim Y · 08-03-2016, 11:59 AM

Both Taleb and Khanaman describe human's tendency to start believing the "story" we paint over what we really do not know as the Narrative Fallacy: our belief that we assign a PROBABLE reason for an event mutually exclusive from the actual facts.

Best example I know was in a movie with Reagan as he portrayed a old time pitcher with alcohol problems. Young boy and his dad are up in the stands and the pitcher (Reagan) and the catcher keep conferring with one another on the mound. Right so, the boy asks "What are they talking about?" the father returns:"Well they are trying to figure out how to pitch to this guy."

Camera goes down to the scene on the mound:

Reagan: "Still have that shot gun for sale that you mentioned before the game?"
Catcher:"Yes, but why are you asking me now?"
Reagan: "I just wanted to make sure it was still available that's all!"

Even the most mundane ASSUMPTIONS are often fraught with the wrong conclusions.

MJS6916 · 08-03-2016, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

We all should have the courage to perform self regression every now and then!

Educational post Tim,

Paul link
Los Angeles, CA

So true!

Life on earth would be much easier if just half of us did that.

08-02-2016, 06:30 PM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	re-education I have spent the last 5 years re-tooling my approach to this game, evaluating my processing and authenticating what is relevant and what is not. Streamlining the decision making has lent better, crispier outcomes. This tour began with the simplest of levels and that is HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS. The thought processes involved are usually mired in psychologically erroneous inhibitions and too much dead weight (the classic process of self confusion brought on by OVER EVALUATION of what is more than likely a much simpler process, "paralysis by analysis"). Great works like BLINK by Malcolm Gladwell, Thinking Fast Thinking Slow, by Noble Prize winner Khanaman, Smart Choices by Keeney Hammond and Raiffa, etc. discuss the many influences that are at work sub rosa, each and every time we confront the many controls that work together in rendering a decision. I found that we all carry dogmatic beliefs (which are NEVER put to the statistical test) that are constantly adhered to in spite of their overall relevance to the ultimate decision. So many of these influences work at a subliminal level unless one sets out initially to expose them as such. Weight, workouts, trainers, jockeys, superficial and erroneous man made class levels (does the HORSE even know if he/she ran against at 10K or allowance horse?) etc...MOST of these ideas are about HUMANS and not the ultimate aspect of the race: THE HORSE....the ONLY one doing the running! MORE than anything else, this decision process as COMPLETELY SEPARATED the handicapping and wagering steps to ONLY consider them in that order: Handicapping to WAGER and never back the other way. You are looking for the best $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ opportunity NOT particularly the best handicapping situation. When they jive all the better. Learn to look at this game as an INVESTOR, and NEVER a handicapper (they are frankly a dime a dozen so take the more difficult step). Be a complete player just like a commodities trader, real estate broker or stock market analyst. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 08-02-2016 at 06:34 PM.

08-02-2016, 11:46 PM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	I saw that video on TED and took the Risk Intelligence test. GOOD info. Others to read are about our tendency to put cause and effect on many phenomena that are simply random in nature: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets and The Black Swan (both by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ) and the wonderful The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow It is of UTMOST importance to realize that MOST outcomes were multifactorial in causation and the majority have NO inner "structure." __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

08-03-2016, 08:13 AM	#5
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	The hardest thing for man to do is look into a mirror and give an honest account of what they observe. While easy for others not so for individuals. Their stubborn resistance to change and accept new ideas leaves most in a quagmire they can't climb out of. Desire doesn't cut it. Testing and change bring about progress and by doing the work yourself the results are never forgotten and have a more reinforcing appreciation than that which comes easily. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-03-2016 at 08:16 AM.

08-03-2016, 11:59 AM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Both Taleb and Khanaman describe human's tendency to start believing the "story" we paint over what we really do not know as the Narrative Fallacy: our belief that we assign a PROBABLE reason for an event mutually exclusive from the actual facts. Best example I know was in a movie with Reagan as he portrayed a old time pitcher with alcohol problems. Young boy and his dad are up in the stands and the pitcher (Reagan) and the catcher keep conferring with one another on the mound. Right so, the boy asks "What are they talking about?" the father returns:"Well they are trying to figure out how to pitch to this guy." Camera goes down to the scene on the mound: Reagan: "Still have that shot gun for sale that you mentioned before the game?" Catcher:"Yes, but why are you asking me now?" Reagan: "I just wanted to make sure it was still available that's all!" Even the most mundane ASSUMPTIONS are often fraught with the wrong conclusions. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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