horses going up in class

[Bill Lyster]

Does anyone have statistics on the success rates of various classes of horses going up in clas?

Things like 4 and up horses going up in claiming price in sprints and then routes.

I want to be able to quantify chances after I choose my contenders

Anyone know circumstances that favor class risers?

Thanks

[atkinsrr]

Bill I've been using BRIS RACE RATINGS for over 20 years and the reason for that is the class structure in racing has changed so much over the years in the form..example: I'll see a C50,000 with lower class horses in it than a C25,000 or C30,000. Optional Claimers sometimes the same. BRIS RR clear this up for me sometimes...but with that being said...most of the races that I bet are stakes races and OC's. on the turf . Just recently have started going down into the claiming ranks....but you will get horses in the same race that are tied in RR maybe 4 or 5 of them and have to use pace ratings to separate them. I guess the best definition of class is in follow up #56 page 46 where "DOC" said Setting or Overcoming the pace that it ran against. He was quoting out of a Ray Taulbot book...but as we know the high class horse doesn't always win the race. Also follow up 36 page 65 has a couple of paragraphs about class. I know..I'm not much help here but that's the best I can do....Good luck Randy A.

[Mitch44]

The "Doc" always said that pace is the class of the race. (Total Pace) So if a horse is in your top 5 its possible. Younger horses are more likely than 5 & up along with horses on the improve. Because of the higher risk (fewer good horses then poor ones) many won't make the transition therefore one should demand higher odds such as 7-1 & up to compensate for the greater risk.

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks guys for you inputs. I have noticed a few circumstances wherein horses from lower classifications can and do prevail at higher class levels, but what I was really looking for was statistical information bases solely on the conditions of the race.

Since I play mostly claiming races and/or allowances races the kind of info I was hoping to find was something in the order of "low level claimers win on the class rise __% of the time in sprints and __% of the time in routes."

If an apparent class riser has a pace advantage, whether large or small, I want to know the historical Win % number because it may influence whether or not I bet two horses to win or place a saver bet on the next best horse who IS NOT rising in class.

It really is an issue after handicapping, more on the bet or no bet side of the equation.

Thanks,

[Mitch44]

I know of no statistical data on this . One would have to collect their own data on this, one monumental job. Race classifications have changed over the years and their not as cut and dried as they previously were.
Its much like form when it comes to betting with the public being wrong 66% of the time. Every race either contributes to form or declines form. I believe the Doc is right in that Total Pace is class. Decide on a TP number that your comfortable with such as within 5 lg. from the top.May also be used to collect data to come up with a better number than 5 lg.'s Time and pace is the one thing that applies to all horses.
I also use Bris Race Rating which measures the class of the field for every race. Even same race classifications can have strong and weak fields. Bris RR and Total Pace does it for me. I'm unfamiliar with the class rating in RDSS but it definitely should be checked out if your using RDSS. Right now I'm not but I go back to the early 90's with Sartin stuff.
Good luck.