Make Money With Early

[For The Lead]

Here are the rest of the screen shots and the chart.

Once you understand that the #4, in spite of its' faster times, will not be the leader, it is easy to see that the #2 is the lone early horse.

[Bill V.]

Hello FTL

I see you used line 2 for horse 1A and 5
did you excuse the poor effort for each of these last line
for the reason it was their first effort against winners ?
In the case of the 1A looking at its MS win line it ran OTE
on the E-Late graph when in all its other races it ran on
the Early side

Looking at Horse 5 Line 2 is a MC25000
so since this horse has only beaten MC25000 and did so poorly against
OC40000 horses why help the 5 horse ?


Thanks for this and all the lessons
Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hello FTL

I see you used line 2 for horse 1A and 5
did you excuse the poor effort for each of these last line
for the reason it was their first effort against winners ?
In the case of the 1A looking at its MS win line it ran OTE
on the E-Late graph when in all its other races it ran on
the Early side
Attachment 33289
Looking at Horse 5 Line 2 is a MC25000
so since this horse has only beaten MC25000 and did so poorly against
OC40000 horses why help the 5 horse ?


Thanks for this and all the lessons
Bill

Bill,

The answer to your first question is “YES”. I excused both horse’s first effort after the maiden win. The dull effort first time meeting other winners doesn’t mean the horse suddenly went OFF FORM, so in order to get a better look at the horse's current capabilities, using the maiden win will provide us with a more informed look.

About the #1A…
The FIRST THING I do is eliminate the race from CT. CT is a “bull ring” and it is just not practical to try and compare how horses run at a bull ring vs a normal one mile track.

Once those races are eliminated, it is still true that there are two races on the early side vs. one race on the late side, but the early side is VERY minimal. In effect, the three remaining races are all very close to “the center”.

In addition, both lines2 and 3 show a visually comparable running style. Naturally, the last line is different since it was the first time against winners and that line gets excused, so we shouldn’t draw any conclusions about running style from that line. Obviously, the horse did not run “visually” early. It was more of an “even” race.


About horse #5…
I’m not trying to “help” this horse, but rather, just trying to learn “IF” it fits in this race’s match up. It is getting the same benefit of being excused for its’ first effort against winners. If the horse matches up miserably, we can always eliminate it.

Keep in mind, these horses were just 2 year olds the previous day, so we can't say they have established a solid class level yet.

[For The Lead]

Bill V. started this thread and nothing has been posted here for some time now, so I thought I would put up the captioned race. Before I do, let me go over the guidelines for picking contenders and pacelines.

1 - no horse with a ML=>20/1 will be considered a contender or get assigned a line.
2 - no horse that hasn't raced in the last 90 days will be considered a contender or be assigned a line.
3 - no horse will be assigned a line that is more than 90 days old.
4 - the last line will always be the line unless there is a valid reason to go back a line.
5 - all lines assigned will be either "+" or "(+)" lines.

These are the guidelines used in every post I make. They never change. Consistency is one of the "keys" to handicapping.

Ok, first the horses. Horses not considered contenders are marked for the reason they were not considered contenders.

#1

#1a


#2 - the last line is the line used.



#3 - the last line is the line used.


#4

[For The Lead]

Here are the rest of the horses.

#5 - the last line is the line used



#6 - the last line is the line used



#7 - SCRATCHED

[For The Lead]

Ok, the idea behind this thread is to show early horses with an early advantage that will allow it to wire the field. So let's take a look at the usual screen shots.

Here are the lines for the contenders. As you can see, there are two early horses and two sustained horses. You can also see that the #2 horse has "8" Quirin speed points as compared to "5" for the #3 horse. All that has to be determined is which of these two horses has the fastest first fraction. If one of them can establish a clear lead the other will fade.



On the TPR screen we can see that the #2 horse is considerably faster at the second call than the #3 horse. This does not bode well for the #3 horse and makes the #2 horse a real threat.



The segments screen now tells us all we need to know. The #2 is the far superior horse at the first fraction. This will allow the #2 to set a comfortable pace.



Here is the BL/BL screen. Where there is an early horse that is dominant, it is not necessary for that horse to be "on top" on the BL/BL screen.



Here is the chart of the race. The winner, #2, paid a very nice $15.80.

[vderdak]

I bet the #2 horse for the same reason last night and won as well, I knew he would control the pace. I followed your guidelines and came up with the exact horses as well in the program, thanks again FTL.

[vderdak]

I'll be glad to post my ticket result if anyone doubts my word too.

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL

Nice work vderdak and to all the fellow students, the win price is nice
If you had $2 $5 $50 ticket or whatever,
The real treasure is the gift of a caring teacher to help you down the road
to your dreams

Bill

[Bill V.]

Thanks for another helpful lesson
I have a comment about Horse 5 In one of the seminar audios
The pirco group is taking about how once you have your true contenders,
what are some tip offs that a horse might not be ready to match
or improve on the selected pace line.

Horse 5 looks like one of the examples

The horse just won its first try at MNR why would the trainer
sit the horse in the barn for 4 weeks ? I know racing has changed
and the pirco group was probably dealing with the So Cal circuit
but still you would think that after such a nice win they would at least
keep the horse active with a workout ?
as we see the five finished last .

Bill