Matchup Challenge May 2/3(Derby Week) by Capcondo

[Capcondo]

Derby:

One of my great problems in matching is underestimating the ability of fighters. They won both of the challenge races last weekend and they won both the SA and Tampa challenges this weekend. Prices varied from $5.00 to $32.60.

In the Derby, the 8 (who can fight) projects around 46.1. His main competition are the 2 and the 10. The 2 fought in a much slower pace at Keeneland. The 10 after going at it with the 8 twice (he had the lead in the stretch once) decided to take a vacation and go to Sunland. I think the 10 can sit off the pace if it goes too fast. My record in the Derby is not very good. I'm going to take one horse.

The 10 is my choice to win the Derby.

Good luck (you need luck in this race).

Tim

[The Pook]

Booooooyyyyyaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!!!!!
Thanks Tim. Heres the chart.

Pook

[The Pook]

Heres the Tampa Bay chart.

[The Pook]

It looks like pretty much the whole Matchup community is on the same 2 horses for the Derby. Hopefully that is a good sign. Good luck to us all.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

My Contest picks: #8 Dortmund and #15 Frosted.

Dortmund for all the above reasons, but #15 Frosted because he has the BEST Late energy rankings, and if anyone will pick up the pieces after a speed duel (for 10f ??) it will be a good Late horse. Waay too much Early positional pressure here: someone among the wonder-horses is going to be out of their positional comfort zone. And, last wire-to-wire winner here was War Emblem, I think (2001?)

My paceline selection method for the Derby (as always - got this from Doc ) is - rank horses off G1 or G2 races ONLY, 1st or 2nd finishes, even if those were poorer SR or other net rankings. Last 3 lines only (which means almost always - 2015 Spring races). Sift down to the top 5 or 6, watch out for balance of Early vs Late pace pressure. Hold my nose!

Not sure what to make of #6 Mubtaahij , but a nice Group 2 finish last race in Dubai. Will check the RDSS tote (now that it's working for the Derby!)

My bets: 8-15 to Win. 8-15-2 over 8-15-2-18 Exacta. Not sure if I'll go deeper.

Good luck all!

Ted

[mowens33]

Race lived up to the hype!

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by KBROD

Santa anita race 5. # 3 bench warrent...gets a fast pace here as expected as cigar sees it as ,21....44.....fits perfect for him...likes the down hill..top late pace last race.........#3 win........sharp work for the cut back

KB, looks like you were looking at SA#5. The challenge was SA#1. So I won't count your entry.

Pook

[cigar]

Originally Posted by The Pook

May 2/15 Santa Anita Race 1

Congrats, nice hit. I have always have problem evaluate horses that are switching from Turf to Dirt. I am curious how you evaluate turf horses. Do you make any adjustment to pace line, running time?

[The Pook]

Derby Chart

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by cigar

Congrats, nice hit. I have always have problem evaluate horses that are switching from Turf to Dirt. I am curious how you evaluate turf horses. Do you make any adjustment to pace line, running time?

Cigar, I personally adjust nothing. The Hat said you can use raw or adjusted info but stick with one or the other and don't mix them up for obvious reasons. I seem to find that raw pays better.

I didn't consider the turf lines. I used line 4 and 7 as a basis for comparison while noting that the horse was still fast enough in his last.

Pook