Anyone to go through a card tomorrow?

[schlpsyc]

Ok, Richie, thanks. Wayne

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by schlpsyc

Hi, I am new to the methodolodgy. Can you tell me where to get more info on BL/BL. I read Marc Cramer's piece on this, and that piqued my interest. Thanks. Wayne

Hi Wayne,

I just spent a few minutes browsing through the Indexes of the Follow Ups in the Library and I think you can find articles on BL/BL starting from Issue 65 and forward. Have a look at least at the Indexes, then go into the articles where you find something listed.

Also, in the area where Marc Cramer's article is posted is also 2 follow up articles related to that study, by Doc, in subsequent Follow Ups. All fairly illuminating.

BL/BL = Bottom Line / Betting Line. The Bottom line part refers to the Line Score of Primary Factors, weighted for rank, and summed. If you can follow the screenshots, (or put your hands on RDSS yourself - just ask), you will see 7 Primary Factors (EPR, LPR, CPR, TT, HID, FW, FX). These compound factors are derived (ultimately) from adjusted sectional time and velocity, and the weighted aggregate Score. Weighting is such that the top 3 tend to be forced closer together on the premise that, depending on corollary factors, these top 3 stand roughly an equal chance of winning. By (judiciously) setting aside (hiding) top ranked, low odds horses from this set, you have 2 or 3 remaining horses to choose among to consider wagering on, depending on remaining BL rank and odds offered (2 horses). The other BL = Betting Line, and appears to the right of the Bottom Line Score. It offers a hypothetical oddsline based on the horse's Line Score. If offered odds exceed this betting line odds, you can consider it game for a wager. After hiding a too low odds, top-ranked horse, we consider betting 2 horses from the remaining top 3: the top ranked low odds horse and the higher ranked of the remainder of the top 3 - subject to the net minimum odds of your 2 horses meeting a minimum value, which depends on your edge, hit rate and average odds from your betting records.

This is a simplification of the concept and more reading (and some test practice) will give you some ideas how to apply the BL/BL rankings, hide non-value (for Win) horses, and seek 2 bets from the remaining top 3.

The Primary Factors are all ultimately derived from velocity, and Total Energy expresses the sum of sectional velocities. Thus, there is often a strong (but not perfect) co-relation between Total Energy and BL/BL. Often, a horse with superior deceleration relative to velocity (e.g. slowing down least in F3 relative to how fast it was going in F1 and F2) will show a good ranking in the V/DC column despite a lower Total Energy or BL/BL ranking and is also worthy of consideration. These 3 readouts: Total Energy, BL/BL and V/DC form the core of the Sartin readouts, and there are many many articles from Follow Up issues 65 and forward on these (with V/DC coming more into play starting with FU 77+).

Hope this helps some!

Ted