Kentucky Derby Day - Page 5 - Pace and Cap

lone speed · 04-27-2013, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks Lone Speed

yes 2013 has been very good
I hate to be a pest but were exactly did you get the idea of best third fraction being the line to use. The third fraction is a tricky readout.
It is a vital readout but...
So much of how a horse runs its third fraction is a product of the pace of race it ran against.
I just don' recall Doc ever saying pick a line for horse with the best
third fraction but I could have missed it.

What I do recall Doc saying is that very often the winner of the derby
is one of the top sp horses
But a big finish and strong 3rd fraction as a 2 year old might not
be the appropriate line for the first Saturday in May
Bill

Bill...

I stand corrected....please disregard my post...
terminology on sartin factors has not been my strong suit...

atkinsrr · 04-27-2013, 01:27 PM

Ky Derby tip: Follow Up #87 page 6...Eliminate all early horses EXCEPT the one with
the BEST CPR AND FX

lone speed · 04-27-2013, 05:25 PM

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...eaderboard.pdf

Here you go,Bill...

Bill V. · 04-27-2013, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...eaderboard.pdf

Here you go,Bill...

Way to go LS !!!

Thanks I will get to work !!

Bill

Bill Lyster · 04-27-2013, 07:23 PM

Not sure where my last post went but look at these:

lone speed · 04-28-2013, 02:24 PM

I want to correct my incorrect definition of sustained pace:

I went back to Tom Brohamer's book,"Modern Pace Handicapping" and looked up Sustained Pace. Sustained Pace was the average of Early Pace (second call) and the third (final) fraction. My apology for any confusions.

I also want to apologize for misspelling Dick Schmidt's name incorrectly:

Mr. Schmidt, if you are following along; My humble apology...

lone speed · 04-28-2013, 02:54 PM

Well, it looks like we won't have to worry about the fast track in New Mexico with the possible scratches of Code West and Governor Charlie.

Drf story:http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...y-have-starter

lone speed · 04-28-2013, 04:29 PM

These are past pacelines of past Derby winners:

All the highlighted pacelines have sub 31.0 last fractions and the energy distribution of the pacelines were all sustained.

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lone speed · 04-28-2013, 04:42 PM

Thunder Gulch and Giacomo are similiar:

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The Silver Charm paceline: Very high energy exertion due to fast early pace(very few horses can exert this type of energy due to the fast early pace fractions) Game on Dude is an older handicap horse but he exerts the the same type of energy distribution.

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atkinsrr · 04-28-2013, 10:22 PM

Baffert is a pretty smart trainer...he knows when he can't win..but I wish he would let them run...somebody would bet on them

04-28-2013, 02:24 PM	#46
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Clarification of Sustained Pace I want to correct my incorrect definition of sustained pace: I went back to Tom Brohamer's book,"Modern Pace Handicapping" and looked up Sustained Pace. Sustained Pace was the average of Early Pace (second call) and the third (final) fraction. My apology for any confusions. I also want to apologize for misspelling Dick Schmidt's name incorrectly: Mr. Schmidt, if you are following along; My humble apology...

04-28-2013, 02:54 PM	#47
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Baffert's horses: Possible scratches Well, it looks like we won't have to worry about the fast track in New Mexico with the possible scratches of Code West and Governor Charlie. Drf story:http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...y-have-starter

04-28-2013, 04:29 PM	#48
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Pacelines models for Derby winners These are past pacelines of past Derby winners: All the highlighted pacelines have sub 31.0 last fractions and the energy distribution of the pacelines were all sustained.

04-28-2013, 04:42 PM	#49
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	The Thunder Gulch lines Thunder Gulch and Giacomo are similiar: The Silver Charm paceline: Very high energy exertion due to fast early pace(very few horses can exert this type of energy due to the fast early pace fractions) Game on Dude is an older handicap horse but he exerts the the same type of energy distribution.

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04-27-2013, 01:27 PM	#42
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Ky Derby tip: Follow Up #87 page 6...Eliminate all early horses EXCEPT the one with the BEST CPR AND FX

04-27-2013, 05:25 PM	#43
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...eaderboard.pdf Here you go,Bill...

04-28-2013, 10:22 PM	#50
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Baffert is a pretty smart trainer...he knows when he can't win..but I wish he would let them run...somebody would bet on them