Kentucky Derby Day

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by atkinsrr

Thx for that print out Bill...how did Goldencents come up on TPR??

here you go atkinsrr

once again these are just rough looks. 1 or 2 points of variant can make a very big difference so once I have them I will recalculate

Golden is very high at 179 I'm sure he will adjust into the 180's
the reason I dismissed him was the plus 5 on the Early/ Late
I also have to take back my call on Verrazano I reran his line and
he does show a very strong 179 with a -17 E/L
so his visual R/S is E/P his energy is OTE

[atkinsrr]

Thx Bill...I entered all into my old hand entry Synthesis program...and the Wood came up 1, 2, 3. Used 9 furlong pace lines on all that had them...I'm leery of the SR-VAR from GP on Orb and It'sMy. Orb showing an 83-13...if he runs the same race @ Aqu he comes up on top...3 year best time @ GP is 6 ticks faster than AQU...when I equalize that it improves ORB to #1 ..also using his 2nd line back at 8.5F does the same...My top 7 BLBL Normandy Verrazano Vyjack Orb Revolutionary Java Its'My...still lots of work to do have to wait for our TRKMST downloads wed to get a more accurate picture...I'm sure that we'll have to use some non-numerical factors to figure this thing out...one thing I'm sure about...this Governor Charlie will not win this race...I'm kinda like Jim "the Hat"..being involved with high school track and I don't believe this horse has enough conditioning to go 10 furlongs against this kind of competition . Also Goldencents will have a better trip when Titletown Five doesn't make the Derby field...I think that he gets beat tomorrow...should be Ruble or Forty Tales ....good luck everyone

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here is my rough look
Based on using only grade 1 or 2 plus races, and only using the last line
for those races,
Here are my Phase 1 readouts. I will warn that I had to guess on track variants
as I did not see them in the PP's from post 15

I threw out Verrazano for the win because of running style
also out for win because of low TRP's are Orb, Over, Palace, and Its my

Attachment 34139

With all due respect to FTL's research on 800,000 races, this is where "the road divides into two, I (will) take the one less traveled by...Robert Frost?

This is a Grade 1 race and trainers aim specifically for certain marquee races.

Da Hoss in his Breeder's Cup Mile Turf-Part 2
Drosselymeyer in Breeder's Cup Classic
Valponi in Breeder's Cup Classic

Regarding Derby past winners and their winning lines before the Derby.

The last paceline before the Derby is not always the best line..

I believe Dick Smidth said that Smarty Jones's best paceline was the ungraded line -the 2nd paceline back. Doc Sartin even commented, that Ferdinand's best line was the San Rafeal mile -3rd paceline back. Sartin also said that Ferdinand was the only Derby winner where the strongest sustain line was from a mile distance. I believe Sea Hero belongs in the same sentence.

Go for Gin was the 4th paceline back in the ungraded Preview Stakes at a mile and 1/16th.

Animal Kingdom, Thunder Gulch and Mine That Bird were tough to zero in on. Heck, Giacomo's best line was the 2nd paceline back where he was SIX lengths behind the winner. Most Derby winners in the last twenty years were from the last paceline before the Derby.

2nd paceline back:

Grindstone
Smarty Jones
Street Sense
I'll Have Another (daily variant was underated due to Derby winner in RB Lewis Stakes)

Here are some pps of past Kentucky Derby Winners

derby-winners-pacelines.pdf

[lone speed]

Here is an old link to Richie P.'s post on how "past Kentucky winners" look in Sartin programs:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3824


Here are the Kentucky Derby contenders guidelines:

[lone speed]

Here is a link by Tompkins or Tim Y. (Hmm, I do not understand those, using two screen names to post messages, we seem to have a couple on this board ) on the importance of having the right %percent median and to have total energy going up as the distance gets longer.

Link:http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...p?t=959&page=5

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by lone speed

With all due respect to FTL's research on 800,000 races, this is where "the road divides into two, I (will) take the one less traveled by...Robert Frost?

This is a Grade 1 race and trainers aim specifically for certain marquee races.

Da Hoss in his Breeder's Cup Mile Turf-Part 2
Drosselymeyer in Breeder's Cup Classic
Valponi in Breeder's Cup Classic

Regarding Derby past winners and their winning lines before the Derby.

The last paceline before the Derby is not always the best line..

I believe Dick Smidth said that Smarty Jones's best paceline was the ungraded line -the 2nd paceline back. Doc Sartin even commented, that Ferdinand's best line was the San Rafeal mile -3rd paceline back. Sartin also said that Ferdinand was the only Derby winner where the strongest sustain line was from a mile distance. I believe Sea Hero belongs in the same sentence.

Go for Gin was the 4th paceline back in the ungraded Preview Stakes at a mile and 1/16th.

Animal Kingdom, Thunder Gulch and Mine That Bird were tough to zero in on. Heck, Giacomo's best line was the 2nd paceline back where he was SIX lengths behind the winner. Most Derby winners in the last twenty years were from the last paceline before the Derby.

2nd paceline back:

Grindstone
Smarty Jones
Street Sense
I'll Have Another (daily variant was underated due to Derby winner in RB Lewis Stakes)

Here are some pps of past Kentucky Derby Winners

Attachment 34146

Thanks Lone Speed

The thing I see is that in almost 100 percent of the horses you highlighted
ALL had + pacellines in the race just before the derby, The last line plus line is a VERY important contender tool. Its there in
all races from 4000 claimers to the triple crown !

Thanks I was hoping to find the PP's for some past Derby winners

Bill

[atkinsrr]

Thx Lone Speed...in past derbys I've used pace lines..in a horses past that are 8.5F but I seem to remember Doc telling us in one of the follow ups that the P/L we select should be within an 1/8 mile of todays distance and I try to follow that guideline...I know things change over the years...does anyone still follow that guideline ...like I said last post, having a problem using Florida Derby line on ORB...this horse made a Monster move in the 2nd fraction but when I use that P/L he's not in the top 6, but using the Fountain of Youth P/L he does...but do you want to use a P/L where the interior fractions were 45.2
108.4 ??? that won't happen in the derby...intersing to see what RDSS/TRACKMASTER is going to have for us...any comments from you guys are more than welcome Good skills to all !!!!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks Lone Speed

The thing I see is that in almost 100 percent of the horses you highlighted
ALL had + pacellines in the race just before the derby, The last line plus line is a VERY important contender tool. Its there in
all races from 4000 claimers to the triple crown !

Thanks I was hoping to find the PP's for some past Derby winners

Bill

Hello Bill...

I hope your year is going well!

It might be best to rephrase the meaning of "Best Line."

Best line in terms of Sartin's measurement of Best Sustained Fraction

We want the paceline that contains the best sustained line.

Sustained does not mean late: for those who are new...

Sustained fraction will be best explained by searching for the exact terminology: but basically it is the last fraction in conjunction with the pace. Maybe others will define it better.

Thanks Bill...

[atkinsrr]

I got a Ky. Derby story for you guys...may not mean anything but might be something to watch for...2 of my past Derby winners were Funny Cide and Go For Gin. When FCide won he was #1 BLBL and Empire Maker was coming off a foot or leg injury and was not 100% so I bet FCide on line on Friday...RIGHT BEFORE THE DERBY I was watching the win pool on the tote board and 2 min to post FCide dropped from 15-1 to 12-1 in one hit, with all the money in the pool that had to be an enormus bet(not mine).. I was at CD when Go for Gin won. Holy Bull was not a good fav and was 5/2...EVERY HORSE in the race thru out the day stayed within one point of their ML odds...except Gin...Gin was between 15 and 20/1 dropped to 9-1 during the day....just a couple thoughts about the tote board....any comments???......one more comment about fri 4/26 @ KEE...I have a friend Michael Bruder who owns thorobreds...and him and my handicapping friend Paul were discussing the success of Michael Makers horses at KEE..Ramseys, Maker, Rosario winning owner, trainer, jockey of the meet. The Ramseys are spending a lot of money putting their horses in those oxygen chambers..for a couple of hours at a time...it cleans them out internally and puts pure air into their lungs...apparently it makes them run run better...Dark Cove their 50,000 claimer won the G2 closing feature yesterday @ 8/1 and beat some good graded horses... ok on to Churchill...lousy card tonight all my good horses are running next week end...Good skills to all

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Hello Bill...

I hope your year is going well!

It might be best to rephrase the meaning of "Best Line."

Best line in terms of Sartin's measurement of Best Sustained Fraction

We want the paceline that contains the best sustained line.

Sustained does not mean late: for those who are new...

Sustained fraction will be best explained by searching for the exact terminology: but basically it is the last fraction in conjunction with the pace. Maybe others will define it better.

Thanks Bill...



Attachment 34162

Thanks Lone Speed

yes 2013 has been very good
I hate to be a pest but were exactly did you get the idea of best third fraction being the line to use. The third fraction is a tricky readout.
It is a vital readout but...
So much of how a horse runs its third fraction is a product of the pace of race it ran against.
I just don' recall Doc ever saying pick a line for horse with the best
third fraction but I could have missed it.

What I do recall Doc saying is that very often the winner of the derby
is one of the top sp horses
But a big finish and strong 3rd fraction as a 2 year old might not
be the appropriate line for the first Saturday in May
Bill