GO LIVE! Feb24Aqu4

[Mitch44]

This race is fraught with unknown factors and not a serious betting race, additionally I would demand a price even for a token bet. Many horses in here are dropping and most for the reason of probably being unsound however at least one of them probably will be OK, this makes hitting the exacta very iffy and I will pass it and or demand @ least a $40 payoff. I looked at work outs and races to determine soundness as best as possible.

Top 5 are 1-4-5-6-8. I tossed the #2 because he’ll have to really step up in class in this one although he is coming back into form, must prove it. Tossed the #3 with declining form who is a turf horse spending the winter up north, perhaps in the spring with the return of turf racing. Also tossed the # 7 who is an unknown factor, ability unknown because of poor trainers , new trainer is 5% overall and 3% in routes, previous trainer was only 3% overall, steps up against these.

#1 L 4 claim back & new cycle
#4 L 3 sharp workout and needed last, should improve if sound, best can get this and nice M/L odds, rounding into form.
#5 L 1 I see no edge here for this one, last was best in last 9 races and doesn’t run two good races back to back.
#6 L 4 Drops today, appears better on turf and & to 8 F
#8 L 3 Two trainers in last two starts and a 3rd today, workout day after last race so probably sound but declining in class. M/L favorite who will probably be bet down. This declining class is like trying to catch a falling knife. Not for me especially at low odds, if he wins he just beats me.

Order 4-1-8 Top two 4-1
Best of luck in an ugly race.
Mitch44

[mowens33]

Race 1: 3 should get the lead, with the 2 and 1 in a stocking position:
Odds should be very low on the 2 and 3, the only horse that may be worth a bet is the 1, 2nd back after a long layoff (looks like he may like it longer), decent first race back should improve.

[raceman5]

I will go with the tandem race of Feb 10 Race 3

8-5


Bob

[mowens33]

Race 2:
Looks like this could be competitive race, I think you could make a case for most horse in the field.

The 5 (needs lead) and the 3 (fighter), 8 year old with Beyer’s moving in the wrong direction, should be up front. Therefore, with that being said I am looking late. The 1 should be the favored and has good numbers off the break. Horses in his last race came back with Beyer’s 91-81-80. The 2 is 2nd back after a rest and will have to close in this race (looks to be better on turf), may be worth a small bet at 10 to 1 or better. The 4 has been good in his last two starts but has a poor record on the inner, will need to run back to the line selection in RDSS to contended. The 1a (10 year back on the track) does have a lot of back class so it looks like the plan is to send him early to soften up the front-runners.

Picks 1 and 2

[mowens33]

Race 3

The 1 and (2-Beyer’s moving in the right direction) should be tough here (each has a win over the inner), I am looking maybe to get a price on the 3 (no match last out 2) or the 4 good last (2nd place finisher 60 Beyer’s next out), bullet 3F workout. I will toss the 5.

Picks: 2 (no bet) and 4 (looking for better than 7/2). Small bet on 3 if the odds are 10 to 1 or better

[mowens33]

Race 5

Pace setters should be the 5 and 9 (I don’t see either one winning this race) with the 7 up close. 1_ I will excuse the last race (mistake?), and take line 10 in RDSS, should contend. 2_good last at Laurel could be a good long short. 3_no form last two races (out). 4_should be in the money, but would have a hard time butting her in the win column. 6_should be the favorite and the one to beat. 7_looks like a good pace scenario (far back for pace line in RDSS) and should contended in this field. 8_N/F (out). 10_maybe close up (no routs), but will be compromised (energy expended) coming out of the outside gate.

The 6 may be too short of price to bet. The 1 looks like a suckers play, but if I got 7 to 1 or better could be worth a play.

Picks: 6-7

[The Pook]

Race 4

6 scratched

[The Pook]

Race 4

Mitch is right that this is kind of an ugly race from a class standpoint. After a discussion with FTL about true lone early horses and horses who may be hung out going into turns I thought the 8 would be the key to the race.

Comparing performances only on AQU Inner routes she won Dec 8 at this same distance of 8.5 from post 2 with no other real speed along side. She has the best SC of any other competitor. Her two best overall SC's in the 56's have never been matched by any other. Running style says she is the only true early but can also win from 2nd.

On the inner her worst F3 is in line with the best of the others while her other two F3's are superior. I'm thinking with the longer distance to the turn of 8.5 she won't be wide on the turn and will have enough in reserve.

The two best other F3's belong to 1 and 5. 1 is 10/45. 5 is 4/43.

I'm not concerned about odds here. I may or may not have real money into this. I intended this exercise just to pick winners.
8 and 1

Good Skill
Pook

[The Pook]

Good luck on your Pick 4 Mike. Doesn't look like it will pay a whole lot but who knows?

Pook

[mowens33]

Thanks!

My picks in the 4th are 5 and 4