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Old 05-04-2018, 10:17 PM   #1
The Pook
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Marathon method on the Derby (2018)

Main Contenders 6,11,14,16.

Mile Times with position
#14 (94.8) 1st
#16 (96.3) 1st
#11 (96.3) 1st
#6 (96.9) 1st

#14 MENDELSSOHN
#16 MAGNUM MOON
#11 BOLT D’ORO
#6 GOOD MAGIC

If we can believe the conversions of Dubai times to NA then #14 is the horse. And if MONOMOY can do it from post 14 I’m sure MENDELSSOHN can. After that #16 and #11 are tied.

14 WIN

Pook
(Actually I’m not sure MENDELSSOHN can do it. But he might be worth a bet at good odds)

Last edited by The Pook; 05-05-2018 at 08:11 AM.
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:06 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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Agreed that Mendelssohn is a question mark and he did press on turf. But even unadjusted six furlong and mile times put him near the front with a top two mile time and a 3 furlong closing time that is top four. Bolt is right behind him on both accounts and the rest have not shown better closing kicks. The only better closers appear to be Justify from a projected 10L back and My Boy Jack, a legit closer who could place at a nice price.

Its 16 and 11 for me.
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:22 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Here's what I got:

Win: 16 and 14

Exacta 16-7-14 / 16-7-14 6-11-18-5

Name:  Derby.2018.jpg
Views: 161
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Good luck all! Lots of good races on the undercard.

Ted
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:44 PM   #4
sureshotlink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Agreed that Mendelssohn is a question mark and he did press on turf. But even unadjusted six furlong and mile times put him near the front with a top two mile time and a 3 furlong closing time that is top four. Bolt is right behind him on both accounts and the rest have not shown better closing kicks. The only better closers appear to be Justify from a projected 10L back and My Boy Jack, a legit closer who could place at a nice price.

Its 16 and 11 for me.

Agree,

Bolt should reverse the Justify tandem. He was taking out of this preferred running style in the SA derby. I believe he will run the race he did in the San Felipe. Very versatile horse!
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Old 05-05-2018, 08:38 PM   #5
The Pook
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Nice one again Ted! Two big races in two days and two nice paying exactors.

The Marathon Method didn’t get this winner. When the track came up sloppy The Derby turned into too much of a gamble for me. I couldn’t get a feeling of confidence even on a fast track because of not being sure about Mendelsohhn. But good for you and anybody else that saw through the clutter.

Justify looks like an awesome horse. Looking forward to The Preakness!

Pook
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