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05-08-2011, 07:20 PM | #1 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 92
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RDSS 2.0 Pacelines
Hi, could someone please tell us, how many paceline selection methods we will have to choose from, and maybe a little about each of them.
Thanks Wayne |
05-09-2011, 08:35 AM | #2 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Quote:
I'll tell you what I've done so far, and what I see immediately forthcoming. The pre-beta version a few folks are looking at has a Last Line mode (picks the last line for every horse) - nothing to write home about, but it gives a quick look at Fastest Pace Last Race (FPLR). It also helps if you tend to pick your lines from within the past 3 lines, as likely half the lines will be line 1 anyway - just review the horses' PPs and choose alternates where appropriate. I wrote a version of best of last 3 comparable surface/distance (BLT/C) to see what the moving parts in such a paceline selection tool were. It works pretty well for me, but I'll have to rewrite it so that some of the decisions I hard-coded can be modified by the user: use SR or Total Energy or Perceptor as the base, go back a variable number of lines (not just 3), deal with wet surfaces, decide how to compare Turf with Poly, or Dirt with Poly, etc, etc. I will likely deliver a user modifiable template to create several saveable versions of line selections, which you can display on the spot, or have the Data Centre create for you during its Task run. One feature I like is being to show multiple different Analysis sets (collections of pacelines) simultaneously, so you can swiftly compare Last Line to your version of BLT/C to any manual studies to may want to do (e.g. multi-lines per horse). I have lots of other ideas for paceline selection ideas, but those will likely have to wait until after the initial release of RDSS2, and users' feedback. HTH! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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05-12-2012, 11:55 PM | #3 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Fayetteville, AR
Posts: 16
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Population Sample 2nd Call
Dear All,
This thread is about a year old, but I couldn't find a follow-up and am hoping I can get an answer without bothering Ted with a PM (not that he would mind!) One of the automatic strategies in RDSS 2.0 Beta 2.5 is called "Population Sample 2nd Call". Does anyone know how this is defined, calculated and/or how effective it is? I've experimented with it a bit and it seems to throw very different pace lines from the more common variations such as "Best Preceptor", Best B/L-B/L Last Three, or Best VDC, Last Three. My very short and limited scan of it shows that it doesn’t pick winners as often, but selects live place and show horses very well. I might be dreaming about this, but before I run a longer test, I'd like to have some input from the Board. Many thanks for your help! If it has been discussed elsewhere and I missed it I apologize in advance. |
05-13-2012, 08:47 AM | #4 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
The last time I looked the "Population Sample 2nd Call" is defined in the release notes and it is calculated based on the 2nd call POH ADJUSTED velocity. The program scans the entire PP's of a horse and extracts the line with the best 2nd call POH. You have the option of doing it by an individual horse or all the horses. I tried a few races and then adjusted the results based on my best paceline selections. The few races I did had one or more of the horses ITM as WPS. So I am seeing similiar results on limited data. In order to determine the profitability potential is to conduct your own study over as many races as you can eat....in the hundreds at the minimum. So you have to do the grunt work set up your spreadsheets and dig in. Ernie |
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05-13-2012, 03:08 PM | #5 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Fayetteville, AR
Posts: 16
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Population Sample 2nd Call
Thanks so much, Ernie, for your quick and comprehensive reply.
I now see exactly how the program calculates the pace line to be selected with this setting and thanks to you can get going on running it through my results. I've got a 400+ race data base on RDSS selections and I'll rerun them with this setting and see how it comes out. Will let you know as soon as I get some results. Thanks again for your kind reply. It was just what I needed. best wishes--chuck Last edited by Lasix1; 05-13-2012 at 03:13 PM. Reason: Added words |
05-17-2012, 05:06 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Ernie, Chuck,
Here is a separate thread which elaborates a little bit on how the 2nd Call Population Sample PSS works: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8311 Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
05-18-2012, 08:56 PM | #7 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Fayetteville, AR
Posts: 16
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Population Sample 2nd Call
Thanks, Ted!
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10-20-2012, 01:53 PM | #8 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2010
Location: norwood, ma
Posts: 29
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I have been using the best SR in the past performance, and that did not work out well. I am attempting to use the best of last three pace line (dirt, turf, sprint, or route). Any further suggestions would be welcomed. I am finding the best in TE, Preceptor, BL/Bl, or SR are all the same horses.
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10-21-2012, 11:58 AM | #9 |
delmarscott2004
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Orange County California
Posts: 132
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Alice0607.............using RDSS2 . I too use the best of the last 3 lines , excluding off track lines , dirt to dirt to poly is o/k with me , turf to turf . But if the last line is the best ever ,never showing another line like it in the total PP, I use the 2nd best line in the last 3 comparable. Bits of knowledge gained from Doc ,The Hat and other Pirco teachers ,Ted , Bill , RichieP and other fine handicappers on this board. late blooming 2yr olds turning 3 can bring some of this into question...................Scott
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12-27-2012, 08:07 PM | #10 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2010
Location: norwood, ma
Posts: 29
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rdss2.0 paceline selections
I have been testing paceline selections, with approximately 90 races analysed. What I found is shocking. the races handicap was from the New York circuit, Woodbine, South California circuit, north California circuit, and gulf stream park, churchill downs, Kneeland, and fair grounds
The Highest win percentage for dirt sprint using best preceptor selections of paceline was picking preceptor rank. For dirt routes, the best vdc selections of paceline with picking bl rank, for turf route races using best Bl for the last 3 races with picking bl ranking. |
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