Paceline Help - SAR R3 08/24/15 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 08-24-2015, 08:02 PM

I thought that this was a neat little race to dive into. I don't have screenshots, but will be as descriptive as possible.

1: TWO TAPS - I went with Line 2, as Line 1 was a one mile one turn Belmont route with a "stumbled start". Line 2 indicates that the horse is a fighter, ahead by a head at all calls and then drawing off at the finish. If this horse gets a good start, she should be on the lead.

2: CALLISTA - Came within a length of winning last out in Line 1, and Line 2's maiden win from the clouds verifies this. Based on beaten lengths at the finish, this Line 1 is a + race for me, and is the line to use.

3: TITANIUM - Line 1 was a no-excuse 0 race. Line 2 is in $25K starter company at CD, which is a bottom class level compared to today. Line 2 did nothing to validate Line 1, so the #3 was tossed out.

4: FULL OF SUGAR - Shows several up close efforts in one and two-turn routes downstate, however was a non-factor in a 6.5f sprint back in November after being near the pace. No usable line, and is a toss out.

5: REGENT'S HOUSE - Line 1 is the line, as it is a + effort through the stretch call (finished 5th in what appears to be a blanket finish). Has enough early power to possibly challenge/fight the #1.

6: PARIS BIKINI - No line. I can't use Line 4 (maiden debut win last year), and the other lines indicate nothing useful suggesting contention. Out it goes.

On the read outs, CALLISTA comes out as top LS horse.

On the track, CALLISTA ran as advertised, barely beating BIKINI. TWO TAPS never fired from the gate, and was done at that moment in time (never has won OTE), REGENT HOUSE seemed to show herd tendencies, dropping back late after being uncontested for the 1st call. FULL OF SUGAR ran close, but ran evenly not passing horses.

I feel my line selection was sound here. TWO TAPS was my bet as the price was better than the late charging CALLISTA. I feel that I made the right call even though I wagered wrong.

Thoughts?

Mark · 08-25-2015, 01:28 AM

If you honestly feel that you employed your methodology correctly, the same way that you approach every race then you just have to say "Next"! You are not going to win them all. You want to show a profit after 20 race cycles, that is the goal. So why worry?

From a Matcher's perspective you would project the pace from the Callista tandem with Regent 22.5 - 45.9 1:10.4 at the distance at today's track. The highlight these numbers on the Original screen and you know what kind of early pace a horse has had to run successfully against to be competitive today.
#1 horse wired at field at SA 4 months ago against a faster pace -In
#2 horse finished well against today's projected pace - In
#3 horse pressed a faster pace 2 back and won at CD but ran backwards 9 days ago in a SAR 7f race against a much slower pace - out
#4 horse has been routing against slower paces even though they are 1 turn BEL routes. No chance she will get close to the lead today - Out
#5 horse finished 2nd to Callista in her first race in a year on the pace. From the Trackmaster speed figures it was a 7 point jump which may lead to a bounce given her racing history. As it is she was already beaten by the #2 horse. - Out
#6 horse is the most interesting. She held position against a 21.3 - 43.9 and given today's pace she should be on or near the pace. This is her 3rd start off a 256 day layoff usually the best for returning layoff horses. -in
Your left with the#1, #2 and #6. The #1 has not run for 80 days and that race was against a slow one turn mile. She will have to compete against the #5 and #6 for the lead and unlikely to get it. If you are a two horse better, bet the #2 and #6 both of whom have shown exceptional quality in recent starts.

Bill V. · 08-25-2015, 09:22 AM

I looked this race over .

My thoughts

Horse 1, Line 2 86 Speed Rating
Horse 2, Line 1 and 2 tie 87 and 86 Speed Rating
Horse 3, Line 2 Speed Rating 85
Horse 4, Router No line - sprints are too slow
Horse 5, Line 1 Speed Rating 86
Horse 6 No Line Speed ratings too slow

after hiding line 2 for horse 2 because line1 rates better on the primary line score, I am left with the top 3 VDC as .

Horse 2 2.20/1
Horse 5 2.15/1
Horse 1 3.10/1

No value - pass

Bill

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08-24-2015, 08:02 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Paceline Help - SAR R3 08/24/15 I thought that this was a neat little race to dive into. I don't have screenshots, but will be as descriptive as possible. 1: TWO TAPS - I went with Line 2, as Line 1 was a one mile one turn Belmont route with a "stumbled start". Line 2 indicates that the horse is a fighter, ahead by a head at all calls and then drawing off at the finish. If this horse gets a good start, she should be on the lead. 2: CALLISTA - Came within a length of winning last out in Line 1, and Line 2's maiden win from the clouds verifies this. Based on beaten lengths at the finish, this Line 1 is a + race for me, and is the line to use. 3: TITANIUM - Line 1 was a no-excuse 0 race. Line 2 is in $25K starter company at CD, which is a bottom class level compared to today. Line 2 did nothing to validate Line 1, so the #3 was tossed out. 4: FULL OF SUGAR - Shows several up close efforts in one and two-turn routes downstate, however was a non-factor in a 6.5f sprint back in November after being near the pace. No usable line, and is a toss out. 5: REGENT'S HOUSE - Line 1 is the line, as it is a + effort through the stretch call (finished 5th in what appears to be a blanket finish). Has enough early power to possibly challenge/fight the #1. 6: PARIS BIKINI - No line. I can't use Line 4 (maiden debut win last year), and the other lines indicate nothing useful suggesting contention. Out it goes. On the read outs, CALLISTA comes out as top LS horse. On the track, CALLISTA ran as advertised, barely beating BIKINI. TWO TAPS never fired from the gate, and was done at that moment in time (never has won OTE), REGENT HOUSE seemed to show herd tendencies, dropping back late after being uncontested for the 1st call. FULL OF SUGAR ran close, but ran evenly not passing horses. I feel my line selection was sound here. TWO TAPS was my bet as the price was better than the late charging CALLISTA. I feel that I made the right call even though I wagered wrong. Thoughts?

08-25-2015, 01:28 AM	#2
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	If you honestly feel that you employed your methodology correctly, the same way that you approach every race then you just have to say "Next"! You are not going to win them all. You want to show a profit after 20 race cycles, that is the goal. So why worry? From a Matcher's perspective you would project the pace from the Callista tandem with Regent 22.5 - 45.9 1:10.4 at the distance at today's track. The highlight these numbers on the Original screen and you know what kind of early pace a horse has had to run successfully against to be competitive today. #1 horse wired at field at SA 4 months ago against a faster pace -In #2 horse finished well against today's projected pace - In #3 horse pressed a faster pace 2 back and won at CD but ran backwards 9 days ago in a SAR 7f race against a much slower pace - out #4 horse has been routing against slower paces even though they are 1 turn BEL routes. No chance she will get close to the lead today - Out #5 horse finished 2nd to Callista in her first race in a year on the pace. From the Trackmaster speed figures it was a 7 point jump which may lead to a bounce given her racing history. As it is she was already beaten by the #2 horse. - Out #6 horse is the most interesting. She held position against a 21.3 - 43.9 and given today's pace she should be on or near the pace. This is her 3rd start off a 256 day layoff usually the best for returning layoff horses. -in Your left with the#1, #2 and #6. The #1 has not run for 80 days and that race was against a slow one turn mile. She will have to compete against the #5 and #6 for the lead and unlikely to get it. If you are a two horse better, bet the #2 and #6 both of whom have shown exceptional quality in recent starts.

08-25-2015, 09:22 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Not Much Here I looked this race over . My thoughts Horse 1, Line 2 86 Speed Rating Horse 2, Line 1 and 2 tie 87 and 86 Speed Rating Horse 3, Line 2 Speed Rating 85 Horse 4, Router No line - sprints are too slow Horse 5, Line 1 Speed Rating 86 Horse 6 No Line Speed ratings too slow after hiding line 2 for horse 2 because line1 rates better on the primary line score, I am left with the top 3 VDC as . Horse 2 2.20/1 Horse 5 2.15/1 Horse 1 3.10/1 No value - pass Bill