BEL 7th- Wednesday, June 24 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 06-24-2009, 02:50 PM

These are my projected Sheet numbers. This is experimental. What I'm doing is using the standard Sartin "best of last three comparable races." I'm then getting an overall pace number similar to a Syn number. Then I'm adjusting for:

Weight carried today compared to the paceline weight
How wide the horse will probably have to run today, based on post position, running style and speed points
Previous ground loss and weight carried

The lower the number the better. One full point is equal to one full length.

This is the very first race I'm doing before the fact. Let's see what happens:

Belmont 7th:
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ssa_152741.pdf

Belmont Park Changes
Wednesday June 24, 2009

The Main Track condition is now: Fast

The Turf Track condition is now: Yielding

The weather at the Track is now: Partly Sunny, 75

Race: 7
No Superfecta Wagering
1 Charming Mandate Has been scratched

#4 17.01
#7 17.62
#5 17.95

Basically, a three horse tie for win. #4 will probably be bet down like crazy. There might be some value betting #7 or #5. Have to see.

#8 20.45
#6 21.40
#3 22.64

#2 27.33

alydar_ David · 06-24-2009, 04:55 PM

#4 went off at 2-1
#7 and #5 both went off at 5/2

No value on the win end.

I passed, but the four horse trifecta box was probably an overlay paying $141.50

Race: 7 Win Place Show
1st 5 Crazy Thing 7.20 4.00 2.90
2nd 8 Pu Dew 7.40 3.80
3rd 4 Smokin Sarah 2.60
4th 7 Stephen's Rhythm's
$2 Exacta 5-8 44.00
$2 Trifecta 5-8-4 141.50

06-24-2009, 02:50 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	BEL 7th- Wednesday, June 24 These are my projected Sheet numbers. This is experimental. What I'm doing is using the standard Sartin "best of last three comparable races." I'm then getting an overall pace number similar to a Syn number. Then I'm adjusting for: Weight carried today compared to the paceline weight How wide the horse will probably have to run today, based on post position, running style and speed points Previous ground loss and weight carried The lower the number the better. One full point is equal to one full length. This is the very first race I'm doing before the fact. Let's see what happens: Belmont 7th: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ssa_152741.pdf Belmont Park Changes Wednesday June 24, 2009 The Main Track condition is now: Fast The Turf Track condition is now: Yielding The weather at the Track is now: Partly Sunny, 75 Race: 7 No Superfecta Wagering 1 Charming Mandate Has been scratched #4 17.01 #7 17.62 #5 17.95 Basically, a three horse tie for win. #4 will probably be bet down like crazy. There might be some value betting #7 or #5. Have to see. #8 20.45 #6 21.40 #3 22.64 #2 27.33

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06-24-2009, 04:55 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	#4 went off at 2-1 #7 and #5 both went off at 5/2 No value on the win end. I passed, but the four horse trifecta box was probably an overlay paying $141.50 Race: 7 Win Place Show 1st 5 Crazy Thing 7.20 4.00 2.90 2nd 8 Pu Dew 7.40 3.80 3rd 4 Smokin Sarah 2.60 4th 7 Stephen's Rhythm's $2 Exacta 5-8 44.00 $2 Trifecta 5-8-4 141.50