Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You? > Matchup Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-03-2014, 08:01 PM   #21
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Match Up

I know class was not a factor to Jim Bradshaw or Richie and I respect
what the matchers can do here. This still is somewhat of an open thread and there will be RDSS and other software users users who look in,
Tim commented that this time he got the winner Bold Distinction,
but on Saturday he, nor most of the matchers got # 8 Whisky
Tim commented that the distance and track were the same. However
the class of these two races was very different.

Saturday was a State Bred $5000 claimer. This in its self says a low class
race but there is also a restriction that no horse in the race can run if they have won just 1 race in the last 6 months. So we have what could be looked at as 3 negatives, 1. state breds 2. only a 5000 claimer. 3. horse who have not won in 1/2 a year.

On Sunday the race was a $25000 claimer it was also restricted to state breds but there was no time restriction. Any state bred horse could enter no matter how many times its won This is a big difference

Looking at the winner yesterday Bold Distinction I see a horse that consistently breaks well against OPEN $25000 and claimers. Looking at Whisky I see a horse who has been running against Open 5000 with the non 1-6 month restriction, Saturday Whiskey dropped into state bred competition.

My point is if you match up the class of who both Whisky and Bold have been running against its really a very big difference.

So yes it was on the same track and distance but these two races are very different.

Name:  Bold ruler.PNG
Views: 337
Size:  113.6 KB


Name:  Wiskyagogo.PNG
Views: 321
Size:  110.7 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2014, 07:43 AM   #22
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
Although not part of the methodology Whiskey was getting a jockey change to Daniel Centeno who was the last jock to win him see line 10. This a very potent angle which I look for.
Lt1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2014, 08:07 AM   #23
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
Moderator,
If I am hijacking this thread, please move it for me. I want to talk about the horse Whiskey Tap.
From the bottom up on the past performance line:
In the horses first 15 races (not shown) the horse has 5 wins from 13 starts in sprints while being 0-2 in routes. Lifetime the horse is 2 for 12 at routes (16% wins) and 5 for 13 (38% wins) in sprints.
So where did they enter the horse in the first race showing?, a route. It wins this route. Where does he show up next? a sprint on the turf where the horse shows good early pace and tires slightly at the end to end up 3rd beaten 1 1/4 lengths. What happened in the race or after is not known but this obviously in form horse disappears from the racing scene for over a year and at a different track, Suffolk Downs (which I think is a deeper/slower pace type track.)
What do they do with this horse, enter him in 4 routes and only 1 sprint. Trying to get in the mind of the trainer here and failing badly. Or have there been different trainers? It doesn't show the horse getting claimed.
Another 2 months off and the horse shows up at Tampa to compete in 5n1-6m which I believe is the bottom claiming price at Tampa. At Suffolk it also competed at the bottom in 4n1-6m. They again run the horse in 2 more route races and the only sprint was at 7 furlongs from the 10 post. Not a good place for a horse who's only wins shown are on the lead.
Finally it is back in a sprint and gets a jockey change. To whom? Yes the only jockey in the last 10 races to get a win with this horse, 10 races back and one of its only 2 winning races in its 12 starts at routes.
It seems to me that this 8 yr old gelding lost about 2 years of its racing life, off to injury or by poor spotting of races by its trainer/trainers.

Bold Distinction otoh, is a 20% winner at S/D, staying at a sprint race but coming from GP to Tampa. Even though the racing conditions read 25K claiming, I think there is a difference in the class of 25k at GP compared to 25k at Tampa. To me this is a slight drop in class. I see the same thing with 7.5k horses, racing at PID, coming to FL to run in their 7.5k races. The PID horse has an edge.

There are major training difference's with how each of these horses got to their last starts. I think most players that follow the teaching on this site would not even have Whiskey Tap as a contender off the past performance lines showing. Where Bold Distinction was easy to have as one.
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2014, 11:34 AM   #24
Appy
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
DontSayDont, you have my compliments on what I consider a very good post.

While I weight conditional recency heavily in line selection, I share with you the practice of reading each horse's PP from bottom up to see how we got to where we are.

Well done.
__________________
Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com
Appy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2014, 09:58 AM   #25
mikesal57
Grade 1
 
mikesal57's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
It doesn't show the horse getting claimed.
It was a private purchase shown here.
and as you can see , this trainer is very competent in acquiring horses
I don't believe RDSS has this info available from my reclamation.
Attached Images
 
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

Last edited by mikesal57; 03-10-2014 at 10:00 AM.
mikesal57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2014, 01:53 PM   #26
DocSartinLearner
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 207
'Tampa Race #6 for 03-01-2014

Appy, I agree with you almost 99% what DontSayDont have to say ref Count #23; previously trained by McKanas Leon J. It was a private purchase and, RDSS does not display in #8 Whiskey Tap past performances. I like Bill V. comments Match Up Count #21 to learn more.

Thanks.
DSL
DocSartinLearner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2014, 03:10 PM   #27
DocSartinLearner
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 207
'Tampa Race #6 for 03-01-2014'

mikesal57 good afternoon. How do you display this marking in 'red' showing with #8 Whiskey Tap about the private purchae and, RDSS don't show in its past performances.

I appreciate.
DSL
DocSartinLearner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2014, 04:54 PM   #28
Segwin
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocSartinLearner View Post
mikesal57 good afternoon. How do you display this marking in 'red' showing with #8 Whiskey Tap about the private purchae and, RDSS don't show in its past performances.

I appreciate.
DSL
DSL, you can make the red circles in a windows program called Paint.

The actual PP is from Brisnet, not RDSS. You can here to order them.
__________________
Terry
Segwin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2014, 09:03 AM   #29
mikesal57
Grade 1
 
mikesal57's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
Quote:
Originally Posted by Segwin View Post
DSL, you can make the red circles in a windows program called Paint.

The actual PP is from Brisnet, not RDSS. You can here to order them.
+1 ...that's how I dd it

1) capture picture in Snag It or the Windows Snipping Tool
2) Open it up in Windows Paint
3) choose colors , thickness of lines, and the shape you want
4) click and drag shape over your spot
5) save
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

Last edited by mikesal57; 03-11-2014 at 09:07 AM.
mikesal57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2014, 11:36 AM   #30
DocSartinLearner
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 207
Tampa #6 03-01-2014

Terry, thank you for your information. Have a nice day.

GS
DSL
DocSartinLearner is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
20 Race Cycles - For Beginners and Old Alike Because I Can Jim Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 1 04-13-2017 03:56 PM
Adjustments Question Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 3 06-29-2014 03:22 PM
Another paceless race - IMHO Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 12 01-31-2014 11:55 AM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup RichieP Hat Check - How Can We Help You? 1 05-25-2009 09:52 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:14 PM.