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10-18-2018, 12:25 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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My Fort Erie win using Energy
Using RDSS, I sent my lines from my Fort Erie race from this post
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11897 Here are my lines and the Energy Generator The winner, horse 2 is lone or counter energy horse, The two has the best 3rd fraction. The FX readouts and total energy top 3 are very close, this shows me the winner is not a one move horse. Next, this is the screen that shows how the races is variegated. The Variegate says sustained. The Paragon A and B point to the winner horse 2 Next are the bar graphs, Since the race is variegated Sustained The most likely winner comes from Paragon B With the best 3rd fraction and a supporting total energy and FX The winner was an easy bet at 21/1 |
10-18-2018, 03:08 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill,
Wouldn't the 2,4,6, come up as the top 3 horses also using Sartin's best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface and best Preceptor? Mitch44 |
10-18-2018, 03:22 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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will check it out
Hello Mitch
Nice question, I will set my RDSS to defaults and post my results I think it may work out Be right back Hey, Mitch thanks for the good wishes I am still in bed these days but The beach is calling looking for me. I hope to get out soon |
10-18-2018, 03:42 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Default
HELLO Mitch,
Out of the box just pushing some buttons with RDSS set to default and -15 to+15 on DTV the race is a real mess wit distances and surfaces So, in this case, some human input is needed BLBL AND RX2 Last edited by Bill V.; 10-18-2018 at 03:45 PM. |
10-18-2018, 06:45 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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My human input Bill would be to toss the # 1 & 7 as their clear routers and todays surface is also suspect.
My lines would be: 2 L 2 , 3 L 3 ,4 L 5, 5 L 4, 6 L 3. We agree on a couple lines here but I use Sartin 's tool of the Preceptor from those 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Glad you are doing better Bill . That surf and sun just may do something that medicine can't. Do what you want Bill as you have earned it after a very long career on the road. Travel where destiny leads you, Mitch |
10-18-2018, 08:14 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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Hi Bill
Thanks for the workup of the race using Energy, nice hit. Feel better soon Jeff |
10-18-2018, 11:24 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
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10-18-2018, 11:29 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Mitch
Mitch here is the RX and BLBL screen using your "human Input"
The winner #2 ranks 3rd This is where water capping comes in, The top 3 horse are 4 6 and 2 The 2 went off at 21/1 so it should be bet. With Doc's later Instructions any horse in the top 3 should only be judged by the odd |
10-18-2018, 11:39 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Now lets see how energy does
Mitch's lines
First is the Energy Generator Nexxt are the Primary Factors, Paragons, and Variegate The race is variegated EARLY The 6 is rated best on Paragon A the 3 is best on the counter energy paragon B Last is the paragon A and B Bars The race is variegated Early and the winner is clearly rated 2nd on both paragon A and B So a Sartin methodology user looking for 65% winners from the top 2 would get win .exacta, and trifecta. GS Bill |
10-19-2018, 10:12 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Bill:
Yes Sartin was correct in that any horse in your top 3 going off at 8-1 and higher is at least a $2 bet. Also the EX. and Tri. is also there. Additionally he said there are many cases where more than I line will get a horse.Money management is such a key ingredient to this recipe. Separating your top 4 horses with other tool within the program and interpreting readouts are also keys. In this case the 2 & 4 both have good TT and HE readouts which mean they can run two good fractions and have tremendous closing ability. The # 6 is all early and the extra 1/2 F in this race doesn't support him to hold his speed and finish. Users need to look at more than just 1 screen to get winners. Thanks Bill, great example of race. Mitch44 |
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