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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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02-28-2016, 04:07 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Blink of an eye
This is a work up of today's match up challenge race
It was a 7.5 turf race ( 2 turns ) I worked the race but I just could not get a read / feel The 8 was a true Early with far higher tpr than the field , however why did I go to line 4? I will post the pp's when I get a break later But I wanted to ask also why is horse 6's LPR colored with a very low 80 rating ? Looking at my screen my contenders were the 1 4 7 and 8, I liked the 3 and it should have won ! I feel bad for the guys in the contest who had the 3. My other problem was horse 7. It was off 320 days I should have tossed it , this would have moved the 3 up. In the end the 1 horse sat in perfect position, pressing the 6 and 8. The 8 packed it in with a clear lead in the stretch. Just like the pp,s said has happened in recent races. The 1 was 6/5 the race came down to the blink of an eye finish with the top 4 all with a few feet of each other . So passing this one was a safe call |
02-28-2016, 05:47 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Screens
This is my Phase 1 TPR screen
I have separated the Early, Pressers, and Sustained |
02-28-2016, 11:14 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Top
Sorry for the slow additions to my post
I am having one of those days were everything is going right . When I get to the point I see my top Tpr horse Is a Early .. that is # 8. 2 problems with #8 1 it's a need the lead Early and the 6 has a better EP rating , also the 1 is a EP so the 8 has to out break two horses to its inside. I went to line 4 . This is a mistake on my part. The reason I went to line 4 was line was it was the same distance . But line 1 and 2 show the 8 stopping on its own. That 102 LPR looks suspicious My reasoning was the 8 would get the lead again today but have to go about 88 EP which would probably bring it's LPR back under 100 I figured about a 178 or so TPR The 6 is to weak in LPR. I an not sure why that 80 lpr is shaded ? So looking at the Early horses the 8 Is my best early Next will be the pressers. Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 02-28-2016 at 11:22 PM. |
02-28-2016, 11:39 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pressers
Here are the Pressers
The 4 has the best TPR The 4 as also my fulcrum horse It has a big advantage over the 1 and 7 But Its still much lower than the 8. If I was going to bet I would have made the 4 my first win bet but I was not sold completely,Why? Because of it only having a 90 LPR Ifigured position wise it would be right there but it had better improve its LPR to win today. The 7 had a lot of back class . I went to line 5 because In today's race the 7 was coming off a 320 day layoff Line 5 was also after a long layoff When I saw that line 5 was so low on TPR I eliminated horse 7 But the back class made the 7 still a slight question in my mind. The 1 is solid but at 6/5 I wanted it to rate higher so i eliminated the winner. Next will be the Sustained Last edited by Bill V.; 02-28-2016 at 11:45 PM. |
02-28-2016, 11:51 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Sustained
Now I am left with the sustained
The 5 is my top TPR of this group but its earns it off a strong LPR only The 5 only has 1 turf paceline and this is the pace line i used it made a move but still finished 12 back, I eliminated all the sustained horses because i figured they all would be too far back because of their low EPR ratings |
02-29-2016, 12:00 AM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Results
I named this Blink of an Eye
Doc writes about how often races come down to the blink of an eye at the finish line. This happened here The top 4 were all right there The 1 beat the 3 by a nose. My analysis was the 8 and 4 But with all the questions I passed anyway I hope this helped get an idea of my thoughts |
02-29-2016, 07:54 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,548
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Thanks for the write up about this race Bill. Well done. As it turns out passing was the correct decision here and I wish I had done it. Mike made a small profit but I too felt sorry for the guys on the 3 because it was good work to be on him.
I was on the 7 and of course in retrospect should not have been. I then would have been on the 3 (to no avail). (The Hat) as far as I have read never considered layoffs. (For The Lead) tells me it is foolish to be on horses over 120 days off. So.......you try to make the best decision you can at the time. Anyways good pass decision. And thanks for the post mortem. Pook Last edited by The Pook; 02-29-2016 at 08:11 AM. |
02-29-2016, 10:26 AM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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I am so glad you bring up FTL . I will be posting up his guidelines and pace line selection examples often.
I saw you had the 7 l only got off because of the poor readouts following the last layoff , Anyway wishing you success in the next one. |
02-29-2016, 07:59 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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Bill,
Nice workup of the race Jeff |
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