Beginners / Refresher Teaching Thread - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Capcondo · 10-21-2014, 12:02 PM

Pete,

Thanks for putting up this race. I haven't done the 5 step approach in a while. I'm going to try and follow the instructions exactly.

1. ESP

1 S needs to run against a 23.0 (all times in fifths of a second)
1A S Can handle a 22.1
2 E/P 22.1
3 E 22.3 from last race not fighting as of late
4 E 22.1 Only one off the lead effort and it was early
5 This horse is going south. Can't handle fractions from 4 or 5 races back.
6 E Last two way too fast early. Can handle 22.1 and fight.
7 S 22.4
8 No way
9 Can't get past last three.

Pace:

I am going to use the 6's race three back 22.1 45.1 57.3 1:04.2

Analysis:

The 4 and 6 are the only early horses with a chance. The 3 is too slow. There are a couple of tandems here (Astral/Nasty Cat and Astral/Blond on Blond) which involve non-contenders and are slow. The 4 may be able to stay with the 6 through the first call but the 6 will then pull away. The 6 is my choice.

GL

Tim

The Pook · 10-21-2014, 12:10 PM

My winning group
2(P), 6(EP)

Todays projected pace
22, 45
from 6, 3 back. He is coming back to his level and showed form at first call last race.

Early Scenario
3,4,6 for the lead with 6 prevailing.

Tandems
6 to win but if too compromised by early pace bet 2
2 has beaten 1a,5,9 in tandem races. Disregarded 1a and 5 as contenders as a result. 9 didn't figure anyway.

Conclusion
Bet 2 and 6 if sufficient odds.

Pook

raceman5 · 10-21-2014, 12:59 PM

job Mr. Mowens.

ray lopez · 10-21-2014, 12:59 PM

Pook,

Hope you bet the 2.Congrats,bro.

Ray

The Pook · 10-21-2014, 01:04 PM

To all that called the 2.
Congrats.

Didn't play out exactly as foreseen but a win is a win and I was all over it.

Pook

ray lopez · 10-21-2014, 01:04 PM

Congrats,Mike(mowens).Good odds too.

mowens33 · 10-21-2014, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raceman5

job Mr. Mowens.

Thanks!

Could be beginners luck? Hope not!!

Ryan.p.coli · 10-21-2014, 01:44 PM

Yes nice work Tim. You had the edge to the 2. This one was easier to get down to 2, but picking from there was pretty tough.

ray lopez · 10-21-2014, 02:08 PM

Doing the Match-Up just by the pdf past performances is tough,but that's how The Hat wants us to learn.But I'm going to cheat and looked at it through his Energy program...

Easygoer · 10-21-2014, 04:05 PM

My bottom line rankings of the winners at Parx today are 3 ,2 , nc ,5 ,3 ,2 ,5, 5 bet 175 lost 175 Anyonae having success at parx--if so HOW?

10-21-2014, 12:59 PM	#13
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,298	Exceelent job Mr. Mowens.

10-21-2014, 01:44 PM	#18
Ryan.p.coli Grade 1 Join Date: May 2014 Location: Chicago Posts: 121	Yes nice work Tim. You had the edge to the 2. This one was easier to get down to 2, but picking from there was pretty tough. __________________ Follow the Sartin Methodology on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SartinMethod

10-21-2014, 02:08 PM	#19
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 859	Doing the Match-Up just by the pdf past performances is tough,but that's how The Hat wants us to learn.But I'm going to cheat and looked at it through his Energy program... Attached Images

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10-21-2014, 12:02 PM	#11
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Pete, Thanks for putting up this race. I haven't done the 5 step approach in a while. I'm going to try and follow the instructions exactly. 1. ESP 1 S needs to run against a 23.0 (all times in fifths of a second) 1A S Can handle a 22.1 2 E/P 22.1 3 E 22.3 from last race not fighting as of late 4 E 22.1 Only one off the lead effort and it was early 5 This horse is going south. Can't handle fractions from 4 or 5 races back. 6 E Last two way too fast early. Can handle 22.1 and fight. 7 S 22.4 8 No way 9 Can't get past last three. Pace: I am going to use the 6's race three back 22.1 45.1 57.3 1:04.2 Analysis: The 4 and 6 are the only early horses with a chance. The 3 is too slow. There are a couple of tandems here (Astral/Nasty Cat and Astral/Blond on Blond) which involve non-contenders and are slow. The 4 may be able to stay with the 6 through the first call but the 6 will then pull away. The 6 is my choice. GL Tim

10-21-2014, 12:10 PM	#12
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,549	My winning group 2(P), 6(EP) Todays projected pace 22, 45 from 6, 3 back. He is coming back to his level and showed form at first call last race. Early Scenario 3,4,6 for the lead with 6 prevailing. Tandems 6 to win but if too compromised by early pace bet 2 2 has beaten 1a,5,9 in tandem races. Disregarded 1a and 5 as contenders as a result. 9 didn't figure anyway. Conclusion Bet 2 and 6 if sufficient odds. Pook

10-21-2014, 01:04 PM	#15
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,549	To all that called the 2. Congrats. Didn't play out exactly as foreseen but a win is a win and I was all over it. Pook

10-21-2014, 04:05 PM	#20
Easygoer Maiden Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1	My bottom line rankings of the winners at Parx today are 3 ,2 , nc ,5 ,3 ,2 ,5, 5 bet 175 lost 175 Anyonae having success at parx--if so HOW?