Going for the Jackpot?

[Appy]

$1M Jackpot Stakes is Race 7 @ Delta tomorrow. Pts race for Derby hopefuls.
11 race card with a slew of Stakes.
Entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry...13USA-EQB.html

[Appy]

Entries/race shape

[Appy]

I'm growing suspicious of shipper pace lines regardless of rankings.

[Appy]

How or IF I play this will be determined by live tote odds. As I said, while the 9 looks to be a nice overlay I'm suspicious.
After manually applying prevailing track bias and race shape probabilities I am leaning toward the 10 to win unless his odds fall below 5/2. In that case I will examine the exotic possibilities. If there doesn't appear to be a high probabalility of a high odds horse @ 2 or 3 I will pass the entirely.

[Bill Lyster]

An alternate view:

On the day of the 10's last race there were a couple of early horses that blistered the first fraction and were never heard from again in their races. So the good news is that the 10 is an EP or a P and probably will not try to get the lead today.

I don't know much about DED other than its a bull ring, so lets try to handicap from another race. Rise Up's previous race at CD was run in 23.3-46.6-111.6-145.7 where it pressed and faded. In the DED race the fractions for Rise up are about 23.1-45.5-111.1 so it ran 1.1 faster at the half and only .5 seconds faster at 6f making an extra turn. The works before the last race indicate a horse that could improve, but 13 points from a loss and 10 from a win looks suspect to me.

Now the others, Coastline, Mighty and Big B will also be pressing, some earlier than others. If we allow coastlines one turn mile to be adjusted by 8 ticks it adjusts to 138.4 while winning handily. Its previous race at 7f showed a nice win off 111.6 6 furlong split, probably not good enough to be in front of this field but enough to mess up this field. With their best races almost all horses are first or second and 2nd call and stretch. If there are 4 horses across the track during this race an OTE horse should win. The Maiden winning Rankhasprivileges and Mighty Brown would be inheritors of so much speed, at good odds too.

Another reason not to like Rise Up is its E/Ls of +12, +18, and +6.0 - not what you would normally like in a two turn race, let alone a 3 turn race.

At 12 and 15 to 1 the 4 and 7 will interest me later today.

Good luck

[Appy]

Once again you put great stuff there Mr BL!

"I don't know much about DED other than its a bull ring"
Me either. Looking at the track stats it looks like Charlestown of the south! Almost nothing but E.

[PassRace]

My picks are: 10-9
ALF

[Bill Lyster]

In race 3 at DED today the early horses held up but the E/L's were under +5, not nearly what the contenders in the big race have been running. so beware of too much early,

Regards,

[Appy]

10 wins pays 6.20. Congrats to you and me PassRace! I just missed the nice little .10 super that pd 274.05.

But much better for me was the 5th. My 4-1 combo was lucrative to the tune of the 4 paying 23.60 (played $4) and the 4-1 ex pd 80.60.
At least now my fun is on the house.