12/26/12 SA Malibu Stakes

[lone speed]

Well, we kick off the 2012-2013 Santa Anita season……this is a 71 days meet where the major races are the 3-4 year old stakes series starting off with the Grade 1 Malibu, the Santa Anita Derby, the Santa Anita Big Cap, and the closing day San Juan Capistrano starting from the hillside turf starting gate and ending after a mile and 3/4.

The Malibu is at 7 furlongs, some trainers have used this race as a stepping stone towards the Strubs stakes at a mile and an eighth later on in the season. We, as handicappers can see the sprint abilities of sprinters trying to stretch their 6 furlongs prowess one furlong further….what we can’t see so clearly are the routers with class to compare their internal splits to compare with the sprinters in this race…..

This is actually the kind of race, we should pass on a regular basis as there are no consistent comparable pacelines to evaluate…I only looked at this race because it is opening day and the morning line favorite looks vulnerable as he peaked in the Breeder’s Cup Sprint. This is the type of horse that I would hide in my analysis,,,,not because his odds are too low or is the favorite… I think that in this situation, it is best to hide as a strong contender…

I highlighted my pacelines that I had evaluated in the attached pps….

Malibu-bris.pdf

Thoromation came up EXDC with Politically Correct and Private Zone

Sp was Drill….I adjusted his San Vincente paceline for age adjustment….sorry …but it is what it is…

Thoromation came up Drill, Private Zone and Polically Correct…

This is not a good race to play on a regular basis due to incomparable pacelines…
But going by concepts….this 7 furlongs is best for milers or the class ability horse…

Fed Biz fits the profile….Baffert has 4 entries with Castaway as part of the early speed brigade with the two ONeil entries…but I don’t think the pace will be as fast as 43 and change….

Good skills….and away they go……as Trevor Denman would always say….

[Bill V.]

Hi Lone Speed
I am not red boarding, I did not bet the race.
Wouldn't class pay a very big part in a grade 1 race?
Many people think pace line selection is all about the best speed rating
of the last three. I hear this said many times but there is another
piece of the puzzle - Comparable Class
This race is a Grade 1 just as is the Kentucy Derby
Doc's guidelines for the grade 1 derby are to only use win and place finishes
from only grade 1 and 2 races

Lets see what we come up with if we use only Graded Stakes pacelines
were the horse ran a plus race and the race was recent =less than 90 days
old and was at the same distance stucture ?

Here are the PP's and my notes


Grade 1 $300000

Horse 1 No Graded stakes Plus races

Horse 2 excuse line 1 Line 2 Plus race

H3, No recent Plus Graded stakes plus races

H4 Line 1 Plus Place in Grade 1 1500000 BC sprint

H5 1 grades stakes plus line 172 days ago at Tdn in a route no line

H6 1 grades stakes plus line 403 days ago at Bull ring DED in a route no line

H7 1 graded stakes plus line 310 days ago at 1 mile at SA oaktree no line

H8 Line 1 Plus grade 3 place

H9 No graded stakes plus races

H10 2 graded stakes races line 1 and 2 but down the hill at SA

Non comparable

contenders 2, 4 and 8

Top 2 BLBL 4-2

Top 2 Thoromation 8-2

[Bill V.]

4 5 6 7

[Bill V.]

Horses

[Bill V.]

Chart

[lone speed]

Thanks Bill or Binder....

Why did they called you that??

Your workup of the race and comments are most welcomed...

I guess there are many ways to skin a cat...(race )...

I guess I had a bad taste lingering in my analysis on Jimmy Creed after that impressive last fraction of 23.3 at Del Mar.....I wonder if he was a hanger....

Great points about the Grade I analysis.....valid points....I guess I had more of an open mind in my own analysis....I was impressed with Private Zone's early pace fractions and I knew that he came out of the best tandem race....

Looking forward towards a great meet and a great new year...

Happy Holidays....

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Thanks Bill or Binder....

Why did they called you that??

..

I am very proud to say "binder" pronounced bin-der came from Jim Bradshaw

Comes from Richie P talking to "the hat" about races won or missed by him and his pal Bill the binder, as Richie called me. When I met Richie P I used to meet him at The Meadowlands everyday after I got out of work at a book bindery.
Richie was the talk of the clubhouse.
I had the personality of door stop so Richie always tried to make me smile and feel like part of the group
If one of my horses would do welll he would yell out
Its the Bin - der horse !
Many times Jim Bradshaw would ask Richie how is Bin-der doing


Bill