Preakness Raw Times Marathon Data - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 05-18-2012, 11:07 AM

Here is the Marathon Match Up data for the Preakness, barring scratches. I did two sorts, the first was to determine the best "mile pace" of race. I ranked the horses by best time. then I added beaten lengths to produce the horse's best time - this is shown in "Chart". You can see positioning info and lengths back on the left side of page.

I sorted by best mile time and took top twelve. Then I took horses who had more than one of the best twelve times and put them in the second group. Note how many of the top four keep repeating better mile times than the rest of the group (all of them)

The next group of five was chosen either because they had strong finishing numbers (3F LP) or sustained E/L's, but note the light purple on right is raw total pace info. The top 7 or 8 TPR's belong to the top 4 horses. Even Went the Day Well looks to have to struggle to make top four tomorrow, unless it improves.

Good luck tomorrow.

PeteC · 05-18-2012, 06:33 PM

Thanks Bill, very cool that you took that time to lay that out and share with everyone.
Here is my Match-Up…
I am using Bode’s 2nd line as the projected pace today…46.2…Looking for horse who finish 1st/2nd against graded company versus 46.2 to 46.4, here is what I find…

Went (line 2 46.4 111.4 151.1 5-2 3-2 1-.5 1-3.5
Creative (line 3) 46.4 111.1 141.4 5-2.5 4-1.5 2-.75 1-.75
Bode (line 2) 46.2 111.1 148.3 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-9
(line 3) 46.4 111.1 141.4 2-.5 1-hd 1-.5 2-.75
Daddy (line 2) 46.1 110.4 148.2 6-5.75 5-.75 2-2.5 1-.75
I’ll (line 3) 46.3 110.2 140.4 2-1.5 2-hd 1-2 1-2.75

The pace looks much less intense today than it did in the Derby. I see this race coming down to Bode and I’ll. Shouldn’t get much of a price on either, but should be fun to watch…

Bill Lyster · 05-18-2012, 11:41 PM

That is pretty much how I saw it too. Bode wont have to run so fast early and I'll has always run his race. I have to put Creative Cause in there, because any little hiccup plus four of the best mile times and his running style and he is there close. I am hoping for bigger odds on CC and then its anyones beyond the top three, based on this info and this method.

We will know late tomorrow pm EST.

Bill

05-18-2012, 11:07 AM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Preakness Raw Times Marathon Data Here is the Marathon Match Up data for the Preakness, barring scratches. I did two sorts, the first was to determine the best "mile pace" of race. I ranked the horses by best time. then I added beaten lengths to produce the horse's best time - this is shown in "Chart". You can see positioning info and lengths back on the left side of page. I sorted by best mile time and took top twelve. Then I took horses who had more than one of the best twelve times and put them in the second group. Note how many of the top four keep repeating better mile times than the rest of the group (all of them) The next group of five was chosen either because they had strong finishing numbers (3F LP) or sustained E/L's, but note the light purple on right is raw total pace info. The top 7 or 8 TPR's belong to the top 4 horses. Even Went the Day Well looks to have to struggle to make top four tomorrow, unless it improves. Good luck tomorrow. Attached Images

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05-18-2012, 06:33 PM	#2
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Thanks Bill, very cool that you took that time to lay that out and share with everyone. Here is my Match-Up… I am using Bode’s 2nd line as the projected pace today…46.2…Looking for horse who finish 1st/2nd against graded company versus 46.2 to 46.4, here is what I find… Went (line 2 46.4 111.4 151.1 5-2 3-2 1-.5 1-3.5 Creative (line 3) 46.4 111.1 141.4 5-2.5 4-1.5 2-.75 1-.75 Bode (line 2) 46.2 111.1 148.3 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-9 (line 3) 46.4 111.1 141.4 2-.5 1-hd 1-.5 2-.75 Daddy (line 2) 46.1 110.4 148.2 6-5.75 5-.75 2-2.5 1-.75 I’ll (line 3) 46.3 110.2 140.4 2-1.5 2-hd 1-2 1-2.75 The pace looks much less intense today than it did in the Derby. I see this race coming down to Bode and I’ll. Shouldn’t get much of a price on either, but should be fun to watch…

05-18-2012, 11:41 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	That is pretty much how I saw it too. Bode wont have to run so fast early and I'll has always run his race. I have to put Creative Cause in there, because any little hiccup plus four of the best mile times and his running style and he is there close. I am hoping for bigger odds on CC and then its anyones beyond the top three, based on this info and this method. We will know late tomorrow pm EST. Bill