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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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02-04-2009, 09:18 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The best way to use RDSS
What is the best way to use RDSS ?
If I was asked that question This is what I would say I know 3 users of RDSS who use it in a way that I would tell you is most likely the best way for you The three users of RDSS that I am referring to all do very well. Honestly when one or more of them post races on Pace and Cap I make full bets on my 4njbets wagering account off the final readouts i see on the screen I don't look at pace line choices or most of the various readouts they post. I just look at the Bottom line betting line I'm totally sure that the lines and selection method they use is valid What i suggest to you is to do what they do Use the Speculator 160 mode Keep the default recommended settings Trackmaster ITV (inter track variants ) and use 50% track variant I would tell you to work any race as long as there were pace lines, at least 3 and if you do a race with first time starters or horses with no north American lines That you pass if there are more than two horses in the race with non usable pace lines When you pick lines take the best line of the last 3 - most recent races Set the top panel to the original pace line data tap Set the second panel to the Primary tap and take the horse rated best on the preceptor ranking This ranking uses a low number is best method I would suggest that you use the lowest preceptor total score of the last 3 or 4 races, Use 4 or 5 lines if there are lines in the top 3 that clearly are not comparable surface distance and to some extent class level you can also look at the tandems and workout and comments tabs when you have picked your lines press the Analysis tap Now from the Primary Tab take out the non contenders I would leave 4 or 5 horse You should look at theses screens for sure Very Important The Early Late graph and the Energy Generator the good users of RDSS I refer to also look at the segments screen On the BLBL screen look for value horses in your top 3 I would suggest to try to always look at the same amount of horses every race Bet the best two of the top 3 or 4 rated horses That's a pretty fast answer If I'm not clear and you have further questions just ask I will be very happy to help you . This is not how I use RDSS but as I said I know 3 people who do use RDSS in close similar manner and they do well. I fell this way is probably the best way to use RDSS for you too GS Bill |
02-05-2009, 06:02 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Adding 3 simple things to Bill's great post:
Record keeping aids: 1) Do exactly what Bill says and reduce fields to the SAME number of final contenders each time. Then track the WINNERS "balance" readout ("Bal" on the Bl/bl screen). You WILL find amazing commonality amongst WINNING HORSES number here. 2) Track the E/L graph "sticks" for WINNING horses. Break it down by track/surface/distance. Put the win price next to each record to see patterns of both low payers and the high payers. Bill was shown this by Doc Sartin when he spent time with Howard at his Pirco offices. 3) The "Power of Tier 3". Pay close attention to what tier YOUR longshots are usually in. Doc Sartin has written MANY times about the THIRD ranked horse on the Bl/Bl being a magnet (paraphrasing here please) which attracts the longer priced horses. The following 2 screen shots show this tier 3 phenomena of long shots WINNING from that spot. Race ran 2 days ago at Turf Paradise and a $37.60 mutual was most pleasing result. THIRD tier ranked. All the best
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 02-05-2009 at 06:11 AM. |
02-05-2009, 09:52 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Newton, N.J.
Posts: 121
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Bill, and Richie,
Thanks for your great analysis. I have always picked up extra tips from both of you guys, and I really appreciate it. Ira |
02-05-2009, 10:16 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
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I presume you are talking about keeping records by track of what tier "long shots" are winning from. Why would one particular tier contain an inordinate amount of long shots? I am not saying it does not occur, but why?
Say for the sake of argument say long shots seem to win over the last couple of weeks from Tier 3 at PHA and Tier 4 from GP. Does that mean when a long shot appears from that tier it should automatically be bet? What confidence level would a person need to make such a leap? Is there any reason to think it should continue? I would think you would want to see long shots listed in the top 2 or 3 horses on BL/BL outrun their odds with some consistency to feel good about how you are using the software and selecting pace lines. For example if I am betting 2 horses to win and race comes up Tier 1 6/1 Tier 1 12/1 Tier 3 15/1 I would have to have a real solid reason to skip one of the horses in Tier 1 to bet the horse in Tier 3 just because a few long shots have won in Tier 3 over the last month. Jim |
02-05-2009, 11:40 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,678
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Richie - nice post.
But from my experience, what's most important in a group such as that is how closely the BL ranks fall. The second horse is eight-tenths away from the top, and the third ranked is just 3 or so points below that. Let's for the sake of argument, imagine that as lengths. The top horse is just 3/4 ahead of the second horse who in turn, is only three lengths ahead of the third contender. On the other hand, I've found that if the top ranked horse is about 25% higher on a point scale than the second horse, that one should be considered stronger than one who is only 5% ahead. Right now, after some disastrous post-holiday results on the Inner Dirt Track at AQU, I'm tracking the individual rankings that make up the primary line score, plus the BL score. At first I was using full fields because I was finding out that by reducing it down to five horses (six in races of 10 or more), I had too many horses that didn't make the cut. I was eliminating by lowest Total Energy scores on the Energy screen. What I discovered when compiling the full field data was that a bunch of the winners at 6 furlongs who didn't make it on Total Energy DID qualify on Hidden Energy. So I went back and used the same selection criteria, but whittled the fields down by Hidden Energy instead, and was at least getting the winners in the finals, even if not on top. Again, this was purely 6 furlongs, so I don't advocate this for all distances on the Inner Dirt Track. I'm still massaging the data, looking for more patterns. But I'll throw out a few highlights: With 26 races tracked, not one horse that was ranked second in EP has won a race! Top ranked took six of the heats, while third-ranked EP won seven. Thus, that's 13 of 26 races. But LP also had 13 of 26 in the top 3, but here the split was a more evenly distributed 5-5-3 for first-second and third. The strongest category is the FW one, where 16 of the 26 winners were in the top 3, fairly evenly split at 5-6-5 for first-second and third. Mile races seem the hardest to rate, the data is all over the place and until I get a better handle on them, I'll be passing all mile races on the IDT. Only 7 of 17 races at 1m70 were in the top two BL ranks, but 10 of 17 made the top two in FX. 12 of 17 were in the top 3 LPR while only 9 of 17 made the top 3 EPR. 6 of the 17 were ranked 5 or 6 in EP at 1m70, which is an aberration from the old IDT and what prompted this project of mine in the first place. I'm just using these as a guide to further narrow down contenders, it doesn't mean an automatic wager. |
02-05-2009, 06:40 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Jim
Doc' explaination why tier 3 is a good source for overlays
is when most clients pick pace lines using his guidelines of the best of the last 3 comparable the horses ranked first and second most likely have very good pace lines - that is they may have peaked in the pace line race. A horse ranked 3rd or 4th may have done well in its paceline race against the pace of the race it ran but it might not be so eveident to the public and now this race is the race it will peak Doc also wrote that by using the plus zero and plus within a zero race notations that whaen overlays win very often the race before is a plus within a zero race Thanks Bill |
02-05-2009, 06:52 PM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
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Quote:
Jim |
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02-06-2009, 03:10 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 148
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Thanks for the good work Richie, Bill, clore and all the others. Bill, I use the same method as you. I had really good winners at Turfway Park. My contenders are nearly always in the top four or top five.
At the moment (since two weeks), I can not find enough winners. Nearly all the winners are fourth or fifth at the moment. There are no positive collaries with them. Most of the time I bet my two horses in the top three tiers. The short price winners are nearly always in the top three, but I think there is no value to bet 6/4 etc. What can I do ? I have tried now a little bit with the modes like Validator etc. of RDDS. How many races should I bet on a card ? Most of the time I exclude Maidens and races with not much form. Is the Early/Late graph better before hides or after the hides ? Thanks and Greetings Tim |
02-06-2009, 07:20 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Validator
Hi Tim
A few things To get on the same page I don't use RDSS the way I explained in the first post. I see three people who use RDSS the way I laid out and its probably the better way. If you find that your getting many winners in tier 4 or 5 It could be that your entering a horse thats not a true contender Only you can answer iif you are or not another thing to be careful of some times the gap between the 4th and the 5th is very small Lokkat the line score numbers and see if there are not ties in the higher rankings The early late graph can be used before hides or after The numbers don't change if you add or take out horses Its a measure readout, Its not effected by the match up Thanks Bill |
02-07-2009, 11:55 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 148
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Hi Bill,
thanks you for your support. I think sometimes I include too much horses in my analysis, because I search too much for value in a race, where is proably no value. Thanks... Greetings Tim |
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