2/25- 8f Route at Sunland / mix of horses

[pktruckdriver]

4 AND 7 top speed in this race

4 seems to have best late pace

3 horse seems to have best early pace

best odds will determine bets

3, 4, 7 ex box



1 has class of the field, sorta

5 longshot contender

patrick

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by PeteC

I’m looking for this race to run OTE. I see #7 as the pace setter. It won a route against a 24.1 48.5, but should get pushed faster early today by the 3 and the 4. I looked for OTE runners against a mid-47 half mile and narrowed it down to the 1,2 and 5…

#1 ran against the fastest route pace last time, holding position 1c-2c, so I went back to another line. I used line 7…
23.9 47.6 112.4 138.6 4-3-2-2

#2 comes off of a good race. I used line 9 as the power line.
23.8 47.6 112.2 138.4 3-3-1-2

#5 has also run well against today’s pace. I focused on line 7..
23.3 47.5 112.5 143.8 6-6-1-1

#1 and #2 run closer to the pace and are my picks to win.

Matchin Pete

[RichieP]

The result chart is here and Pete C has the nice 7/2 winner nailed in his final 2 picks and 70 buck exacta in his final 3 horse "mix".

He used the entire pps going deep for his Power Lines when he narrowed to his last true win contenders, then used positioning and Hat's "who is closest to the leader" concept to "pick" his final win contenders. Beautifully done young man!!

Thank you everyone for taking the time to participate

[PeteC]

Thanks Charlie and Richie, that was a fun race to look at. Adding sprinters (especially when at least one is early) to a route is very interesting to me and spiced up this match-up.

A belated happy birthday as well Richie...

[ThomasCSS]

Originally Posted by PeteC

I’m looking for this race to run OTE. I see #7 as the pace setter. It won a route against a 24.1 48.5, but should get pushed faster early today by the 3 and the 4. I looked for OTE runners against a mid-47 half mile and narrowed it down to the 1,2 and 5…

#1 ran against the fastest route pace last time, holding position 1c-2c, so I went back to another line. I used line 7…
23.9 47.6 112.4 138.6 4-3-2-2

#2 comes off of a good race. I used line 9 as the power line.
23.8 47.6 112.2 138.4 3-3-1-2

#5 has also run well against today’s pace. I focused on line 7..
23.3 47.5 112.5 143.8 6-6-1-1

#1 and #2 run closer to the pace and are my picks to win.

PeteC or anyone, can you help me understand how and why PeteC went back to line 9 as the power line in that it was (1) a sprint line in a route race, (2) there were at least two subsequent route lines that seem more 'reasonable' to use, and (3) the horse was way back, as in lengths behind (I thought we are to prefer to use lines where the horse is 7.5 or 8 lengths back or less.

Do not misunderstand, I love that you went back that far. But when reviewing this thread I found myself just staring at the #2 horse lines and your choice and realized I did not have the foggiest....

Thank you kindly for any reply.

[I'm re-entering the race game after a 21+ year absence as Sartin student of the 80s and probably am certainly short on memory...I suspect this has something to do with "power line", but really don't have a clue]

[PeteC]

Hi Thomas,

Thanks for your question and welcome back to the game after many years!

I projected the pace of this race to have a "mid-47" half mile so I focused on running lines against that pace. #2 was a contender with a couple of lines (3 and 9) against a 47 half. It comes off of a recent good finish so I felt comfortable going back. Line 3 is more recent and was against a little faster pace (47.1 111.6) than line 9, but in choosing power lines I focus on lines where the horse finished VERY close to the winner, which for me is about a length or less, if a line like that is availble. In this case it was and I went back to line 9.

In your message I think you may have thought I was looking at line 8, the poor sprint finish at SRP, but correct me if I'm wrong.

Hope that helps, if not, let me know!

Best,

Pete

[ThomasCSS]

Hi PeteC. Thank you kindly for your welcome and your reply.

Yes, I was looking at 8th line, not the 9th. I realize that when looking at the RDSS paste of the horse, the 8th line was highlighted and so I somehow fixed my attention upon that line rather than the 9th line (which you had clearly identified as your line (9th)).

I'm so glad I was mistaken in that I was otherwise completely confounded as I'm sure you can imagine. Silly mistake on my part, and I suppose it is my floundering insecurity as a long absent Sartin returnee that left me presuming upon my own assumption (...that the 8th line was indeed the worked line).

Sorry for the bother. I've done this a couple times now on this forum...geez, I need to buck up already. Ha.

While I have your attention Pete, any chance you might share with me a bit of your own methodology/use of Sartin/RDSS etc.? I could use any help I can get. I am asking this of you in particular in that I like how you easily go back beyond three races and, separately, I want to use a bit more of the match up process in my own set up of RDSS.

[Back-in-the-day I rather enjoyed doing same, even being acknowledged for a couple of my choices (winners w/ way-back lines) by either the Doc or Michael Pizzola--can't remember which.]

Having said to you that I am sorry for the bother, here I am asking you to bother even more so. Hmm, guilty.

Thanks, Thomas

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by ThomasCSS

Hi PeteC. Thank you kindly for your welcome and your reply.

Yes, I was looking at 8th line, not the 9th. I realize that when looking at the RDSS paste of the horse, the 8th line was highlighted and so I somehow fixed my attention upon that line rather than the 9th line (which you had clearly identified as your line (9th)).

I'm so glad I was mistaken in that I was otherwise completely confounded as I'm sure you can imagine. Silly mistake on my part, and I suppose it is my floundering insecurity as a long absent Sartin returnee that left me presuming upon my own assumption (...that the 8th line was indeed the worked line).

Sorry for the bother. I've done this a couple times now on this forum...geez, I need to buck up already. Ha.

While I have your attention Pete, any chance you might share with me a bit of your own methodology/use of Sartin/RDSS etc.? I could use any help I can get. I am asking this of you in particular in that I like how you easily go back beyond three races and, separately, I want to use a bit more of the match up process in my own set up of RDSS.

[Back-in-the-day I rather enjoyed doing same, even being acknowledged for a couple of my choices (winners w/ way-back lines) by either the Doc or Michael Pizzola--can't remember which.]

Having said to you that I am sorry for the bother, here I am asking you to bother even more so. Hmm, guilty.

Thanks, Thomas

No problem Thomas...In matching races I do not use software. There are a number of people here who do and they would be good to emulate. I recommend finding a race in the matchers forum where someone used software and follow up with them about their process.

Everything I have learned about the match-up has been from reading the posts in the Hat-Check forum. I had previously read Jim Bradshaw's Match-Up and Match-Up 2 but it was not until I followed Richie's layouts here that it started to make sense. If you have not gone through the hat-check material I recommend starting there. The minds-eye series was really helpful to me. You will find material there that shows when and why you can go back to earlier lines when matching horses.

In general, when matching I start with running styles (early or ote) and then project a pace. I go back through the field and find lines against a similar or faster pace. The lines can be far back if I feel it is reasonable to do so. Then I get a sense of whether the winner will be in the early group or the ote group. I then match the horses from the preferred group.

Another good thing to do is post your analysis on upcoming races and ask questions. That type of feedback can be really helpful in shaping how you match races in the future.

Hope that helps,

Pete

[ThomasCSS]

Excellent. Most helpful and I thank you.

I am going to do exactly what you suggested. Analyze race using RDSS 2 but starting with the plugging in of a pace line per my learning from Richie's video tutorial, "Hollywood 5/7 Matching" http://www.sartinmethodology.com/med...09matching.wmv

...and post same.

I will also, as you suggested, go to the Hat Check Forum, Match Up I & II. A few days ago a found this quote on the forum, "Horse racing is an easy game. One horse gets the lead and if no other horse can pass it, it wins". LOL...I just love that quote. It cleared my mind from all manner of self-created complex algorithmic assumptions and 'weighted' quandaries.

...thus my fresh look at the Match Up.

I certainly appreciate your bother and care in responding Pete. Very kind of you.

Thank you again.

Thomas