working races

[Bill V.]

Dogkatcher I left out is, as part of "Doc's" guidelines, the line used should be within 1 furlong of today's distance (if possible). In this case the last two lines are 7f and 5.5f. With both races being recent and both races being "+" races and today's distance being 5.5f, it seems to me that following "Doc's" guidelines I should use line 2,.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Appy

I'm certainly not on Bill's experience level, but line 2 would have been my choice in this instance because it is what I call "conditionally perfect". That means there will be fewer adjustments necessary. IMO the fewer adjustments made the more accurate the line.

Hi Appy

Yes you are also correct and it is tied into using a pace line at a comparable distance and surface - same track - and no more than 1 furlong the less adjustments needed the better.

Bill

[dogkatcher]

Thanks Bill, great explanation.
Thanks also for the kudos, but I pale
in your shadow of knowledge and skill.

All the Best,

John

[CaptDon100]

[Segwin]

Hopefully you were all over the

Great payday!

[CaptDon100]

This is my 1st time with the snipping tool, so I posted the info 1st.

After reading this post a couple times a day, I learned another thing to look out for. I picked the 2nd line for horse #8 and went back and
pick the 1st line to check what I saw. I didn't like using the route, but I had no choice. The TPR was 167.5 over 164.4, (That was from this post)
This was a MS 19 race and the race looked as if there would be some type of speed duel. But my opinion of the race felt right
What I wanted to know is, Is this what this post was teaching, or did I just get lucky.

[Bill V.]

No sir, you have not grasped the points of this thread or any race in the teaching area.

Congratulations on being at the right place at the right time.
but this race is not indicative of what you will get on a consistent basis.


Rather than go into a long post, I will just say I would not have had this horse




Thanks
Bill

[Appy]

CaptDon, I'm confused by you saying you "had no choice" but to use the route lines when I see lines 4 and 5 are both much nearer today's conditions. Seems to me you could have chose one of those lines and then used one of your route lines as a second in order to get a more complete picture of the Vicious probabilities.
I'm with you on valuing recency in line selection, but how the horse has performed in the past at today's condition is an equally valuable piece of info. I would be curious to see what it says if you do that (I don't have that card or I would do it myself). If I saw a segments screen showing results like that on a 20-1 horse I would be questioning my line selection, but if I got the same result using other lines, then it's a dash to the window!

In any event, if that horse won and you bought a ticket for it I'm really happy to see you get a big W.

[Bill V.]

Hi Appy and Captdon

I made this video when I first saw CapDons post this morning.
I decided not to post it at that time, because I felt it was not necessary to jump on a person who did give an effort to learn, I'm very appreciative of that effort .

The video does show each horses PP's but I don't show a final readout
because I only have a pace line for one horse and its not # 8 LOL
I apologize if the video seems like I'm not showing respect,

No Comment.mp4

Thanks
Bill

[CaptDon100]

Thanks Bill V, I value your input, Thanks for taking the time.

When I went through the race and picked the lines,The BL screen picked
the #8 on top.
The reason I picked line 2 is because, it had TE of 165 within 45 days
and a 0.0 percept total. You are right there is nothing in his PP to show
that he is a winner. BUT he was the best of a race of crappy horses.
He was also a plus 2 in CPR. I checked to see if he had a chance since he was 20-1, That is why I put in the 1st line. Yes he had a bad line, but he was the best in that race.
I also thought that the 6 and the 4 would duel it out and that would let the 8 with the best turn time to make a move.
I'm not trying to make something out of nothing, I picked the best Pace line for each horse that I thought were the best choice for that race.
Had the 8 horse been the Fav with no odds, I would have passed. RDSS is not a Black Box, it did help me make up my mind that it was going to win.
The best of a crappy race. Ok its not the methodology in this post, I understand that with Bill's video, (Thanks for taking the time).