Problem Race - CD 9th - 6/22/13

[Jeebs]

Conditions: 1M Turf n1x 3up F&M

SCR: 5, 13, 14, 15, 16

1 - SCHOOL MASCOT - + line 5/23 @ 1 1/8 Turf - Preferred Style: Closer/Unknown

2 - GLEANING - 2nd L/O. My issue is, was that last turf line a (+), having made up 3 1/2 lengths from 2nd to Str call? Or, would we consider it a ( ) line? - Preferred Style: Closer/Unknown

3 - PAVLA - 1st off 52-day L/O, (+) turf lines on 5/1 and 4/6. Won maiden 11/1/12 over track/distance. Preferred Style: Presser

4 - FEMME FATALE - 3rd L/O, + Pressing win 6/2 over track/distance while adding blinkers. Preferred Style: Presser

6 - DYNARAMA - ( ) lines last 2 (5/25 at CD, 4/25 in G3 at KEE). + finish 4/6 at 1 1/8 KEE Turf. (+) Mdn line tandem w/#3 11/1/12. Preferred: S/P

7 - FAERIE QUEENE - 2nd L/O, + closing effort over track/distance 6/8. + maiden win pressing 3/20 at GP. Preferred Style: Presser

8 - KITTEN'S QUEEN - 2nd L/O, + effort on 5/27 BEL Inner in G2, S/P + at KEE turf 4/7. + Sustained Maiden win 11/18/12 over surf/dist. Pref: S/P

9 - BELLE CHAUSSEE - 1st 6+ mth L/O. Lone win at 7F over KEE Poly. No Paceline Selection. Preferred Style: Closer

10 - OCEAN BERTIE - (+) sustained effort 5/25 over track at 1 1/16 and + Early effort at 1 1/8 on 5/1. Sust. mdn win on FG dirt. Pref: Closer

11 - SUMMER BREEZE - 1st time turf, stretchout. Sustained Mdn win 2/14 at OP. No paceline selection.

12 - I'M YOUR LUV - + effort going 1 3/8. (+) efforts 2nd/3rd back, prefer 5/1 tandem effort. Closer

Projected Pace - No "true" early runners. I had problems with projecting the pace here. Perhaps Pavla would gain the lead by default, or even Femme Fatale, who was on top of pedestrian fractions in that winning effort. Even Faerie Queene shows pressing efforts of interest. I projected (with little confidence) fractions of 48.2/1:12.2/1:37.0.

Pacelines:
1 - Line 1
2 - Either Line 1 (if you consider the race as (+) effort), or NL (N/C)
3 - Line 1, though there is a tandem (Line 3) with the 6.
4 - Line 1
6 - Either Line 8 (Respectable tandem line matching today's race) or NL (No recent form)
7 - Line 3
8 - Line 2
9 - NL (N/C)
10 - Line 1
11 - NL (N/C)
12 - Line 2

With no "true" Early here, the race was a likely set up for horses that could run late. I'll admit, when I ran this race last night, I threw out the #2, dismissing as a ( ) race, with no recent turf form to support a selection. As we now know, the horse made a sustained run to win at a fat $40.20 mutuel. When I plug the #2's recent line in, giving credit as (+) race, this zero becomes a hero. Take a peek at the BL/BL here. The 1-2-4 finishers in the race were ranked 2-4-3 on the BL/BL. I would understand if #2 is simply a horse that we toss without prejudice and if he jumps out and bites us, so be it. My question is, would it have been 1) a mistake for me to rate the line as a (+)? Or 2) would it have been a mistake for me to hastily rate the last line as ( )?

[Bill V.]

Hello Jeebs

No I would not have had the 2
This is a problem that I have to live with in my own day to day handicapping
The horse is 20/1 ML and that is what you got.
Its a non contender in my eyes because it ran so poorly in line 2
Then a long layoff ? Then in its comeback race it was either in a very tough race
or something else and it was 43/1
It did beat half the field and did not finish very far back but like most turf races
it looks like the horse was in a tight group sitting 8th then 7th then 5th
Its not a terrible race but its kind of a shady (+) at best
Was this horse ever really involved competitively ?

[Bill V.]

If you were to have visited Doc in his office as he was writing follow up
88, and you asked him about the race, Doc would have asked you many questions, He would then depending on your handicapping ability give you his instructions. In my case I was a new beginner It is a good bet that he would have said forget all about the match UP, and running styles and recency rules, and just enter the line that Validator
(RDSS) picked the best of the last three comparable adjusted speed ratings.

Had I been there and done that, This is what I would have come up with.



So at 19/1 sitting in the top 3 the 2 is a sure bet
These are some of the decisions that we have to make as users of the
Mthodology What ever road you choose, you must stay consistent to that
decision

[Jeebs]

Good examples, Bill. I do look upon turf performances differently than those on dirt for the most part because of the way the races play out. I saw the gain in ground while finishing front half of the field, but without seeing a replay of the previous race, I can't be so sure that this horse was truly competitive. If I base the analysis on just my personal experience with runners of this ilk, the horse is probably in a herd, never seriously making any challenge. Queuing up the replay, I see that the field that he faced was basically running in three groups: front, middle and rear pack, each strung out. Gleaming was in the middle pack, gapped out from the front half. On the pan shot, he did make a good move from the turn to the stretch, but looked like in the head-on, was moved toward the outside, found no room, and was maneuvered toward the rail. Nonetheless, the other rear horses never made any significant moves, and the horses in the front half held sway, so Gleaming's effort last out may very well be a (+). To the contrary, it could have been fool's gold.

Like you said, he really was never involved competitively and it's a shady (+).

[For The Lead]

I don’t think this is so much a “problem race” as it is a “problem horse”.

Here is a 4 year old with just 6 lifetime races. WHY?
The horse broke its’ maiden in just its’ third start, which was more than a year ago, then it was off for three and a half months. WHY? NW2L or NW1X races are easy to find, so again, WHY the time off?

After its’ next race, where it ran a distance third, it was off again, this time for two months. WHY?

Then it appears the first try on the turf was the horse’s undoing. After that race, which was brutally bad, the horse was off for almost eight months. WHY?

The answer to all the “why’s” is this. The horse had an injury and as I have written many times, in young horses the most common injury is “bucked shins”, which requires time off in order to heal. If the reader wants to learn more about this, just GOOGLE “bucked shins” and read about it.

So, we have a young horse that develops an injury that requires time off. Not always, but many times these horses come back to the races with an effort that is less than stellar because the connections do not want to push the horse to hard since that was the cause of the injury in the first place. So the question becomes, “is the horse ready for a good effort or not”? We can’t know. Speed ratings and the like do NOT provide the answer. It is the horses “physical condition” that matters. Many times we don’t get the answer, good or bad, until today’s race is over.