The "Mysterious" case of Guyana Princess - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 06-27-2013, 04:48 PM

Mark:

The Hat's marathon method works because you don't project past the mile call. My point was that Orb with one of the top mile times was a top contender. Hat's view was that most of the energy had been expended in the first 8 furlongs and only those on or near the lead could win. No projection needed.

there are some interesting stats on winning horses in marathon races in the Match Up thread that directly relate to what The Hat said. It worked for all three triple crown races this year and several in the past.

Regards,

Mark · 06-27-2013, 06:00 PM

Bill,
My feeling is and was that ORB is a Presser. Most of his PPs show that he kicks it in the butt in his second fraction. But if he doesn’t reach the lead with that move he fades at these long distances. Or at best he passes exhausted horses. Maybe he is a miler but he is not suited to run these marathons as you call them. He has to lay too far off the pace to conserve energy.
You are exactly right, it is about position at that point. Those that are left standing at the head of the stretch are decelerating at similar rates. Oxbow chased decent fractions and held the lead at the mile in 136.4. In the next ½ mile Orb made very little headway and finished 1 ¾ lengths behind him. At the 1 ¼ mile point ORB was 3 ½ off the lead and yet he finished 5 back. He is not like Oxbow or Palace Malice who are basically Sustained horses that run on or near the lead. Bradshaw once told me and a group of others that there are three types of sustained horses: 1) Those that run on the lead 2) those that run from far back and 3) slow horses.
This is what makes these races so difficult. These are young horses that have never done these things before. And we are trying to use races at shorter distances to make an evaluation.
Jim Bradshaw was the most brilliant handicapper of our time, very possibly ever. He had intuition and learned instinct that few if any can duplicate. But I think he had difficulty verbalizing or writing about his process because it was basically seamless. He just knew…
All we can do is attempt to apply his concepts and principles over and over and over and over… and hope to gain some of his insight.

Bill V. · 06-27-2013, 07:17 PM

I still feel Orb got a bad rap and did run a very good Belmont

Here is the video of the 2013 Belmont

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd-5c4l-iKs

I also stopped and captured Orb's position at the
1/2, 3/4, 1 mile and finish

He made a big move on the turn and put himself into contention
at the 1 mile call would he have caught Oxbox and maybe Palace
with just a little better position early ?

Such is the life of a sustained runner
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Mark · 06-27-2013, 08:30 PM

Bill,
I am not here to offend you or diminish the racing efforts of one of the best early 3yos in the country. He has proven his grit and courage against that the best the breeding industry world over has to offer. He danced every dance. Took home the Roses!! He ran gamely at a distance in the Belmont he most likely will never have to run again. He may yet emerge as the best of his generation.
However, my opinion, that of one horse player is that he is a very nice horse but not the very top of his class. I am willing to take that stand based upon my knowledge and experience in this game.
So in the end all we have is a difference of opinion, nothing more and that’s what makes horse racing!

06-27-2013, 07:17 PM	#13
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Past tired horses or made move too late ? I still feel Orb got a bad rap and did run a very good Belmont Here is the video of the 2013 Belmont http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd-5c4l-iKs I also stopped and captured Orb's position at the 1/2, 3/4, 1 mile and finish He made a big move on the turn and put himself into contention at the 1 mile call would he have caught Oxbox and maybe Palace with just a little better position early ? Such is the life of a sustained runner

06-27-2013, 04:48 PM	#11
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Mark: The Hat's marathon method works because you don't project past the mile call. My point was that Orb with one of the top mile times was a top contender. Hat's view was that most of the energy had been expended in the first 8 furlongs and only those on or near the lead could win. No projection needed. there are some interesting stats on winning horses in marathon races in the Match Up thread that directly relate to what The Hat said. It worked for all three triple crown races this year and several in the past. Regards,

06-27-2013, 06:00 PM	#12
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Bill, My feeling is and was that ORB is a Presser. Most of his PPs show that he kicks it in the butt in his second fraction. But if he doesn’t reach the lead with that move he fades at these long distances. Or at best he passes exhausted horses. Maybe he is a miler but he is not suited to run these marathons as you call them. He has to lay too far off the pace to conserve energy. You are exactly right, it is about position at that point. Those that are left standing at the head of the stretch are decelerating at similar rates. Oxbow chased decent fractions and held the lead at the mile in 136.4. In the next ½ mile Orb made very little headway and finished 1 ¾ lengths behind him. At the 1 ¼ mile point ORB was 3 ½ off the lead and yet he finished 5 back. He is not like Oxbow or Palace Malice who are basically Sustained horses that run on or near the lead. Bradshaw once told me and a group of others that there are three types of sustained horses: 1) Those that run on the lead 2) those that run from far back and 3) slow horses. This is what makes these races so difficult. These are young horses that have never done these things before. And we are trying to use races at shorter distances to make an evaluation. Jim Bradshaw was the most brilliant handicapper of our time, very possibly ever. He had intuition and learned instinct that few if any can duplicate. But I think he had difficulty verbalizing or writing about his process because it was basically seamless. He just knew… All we can do is attempt to apply his concepts and principles over and over and over and over… and hope to gain some of his insight.

06-27-2013, 08:30 PM	#14
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Bill, I am not here to offend you or diminish the racing efforts of one of the best early 3yos in the country. He has proven his grit and courage against that the best the breeding industry world over has to offer. He danced every dance. Took home the Roses!! He ran gamely at a distance in the Belmont he most likely will never have to run again. He may yet emerge as the best of his generation. However, my opinion, that of one horse player is that he is a very nice horse but not the very top of his class. I am willing to take that stand based upon my knowledge and experience in this game. So in the end all we have is a difference of opinion, nothing more and that’s what makes horse racing!