Energy! (still alive and kickin') - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 02:42 AM

After losing The Pacific Classic today I was at a loss for words. For one thing I was thrilled to bet A.P.Xcellent at good odds. The horse had "tandem, bet me I'm going to win" written all over him. I was anticipating a major score.

As if it wasn't bad enough that he fell apart, to add insult to injury a "hopeless" horse -- #5 Student Council -- made it to the winner's circle paying $48.80 to win.

How could this be? This horse couldn't even pull off a Grade 3 win. And what's this? He has no Grade 2 races showing? And he's entered today with these monsters in a Grade 1 event? Has the world gone upside down? Or, could it be easily explained because he switched trainers to Vladimir Cerin (and most of know the dubious nick for his surname and that implication).

I was obsessed...on a mission...had to see if any of my programs could pick this up.

So, I started checking the race out with most of the programs I have (and I've got plenty of them). Results: nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, bingo!

I'll preface this by saying the contenders were arrived at by strictly following KGEN procedures from The Follow Up. They are not the contenders I personally selected when I handicapped the race "my way" before the fact.

Nor are they Class/APV contenders (although they might be, I didn't even look at that).

Indeed, my favorite horse, A.P.Xcellent didn't even make the cut. So be it. I was going "by the letter of the law" and letting it take me where it may.

Note, I almost always used five contenders when I was using Energy many years ago. In this race the fifth contender really wasn't a contender and I decided not to force the issue doing it my way. I went with the top four because that's what I was supposed to do. Again, I wasn't trying to prove anything and didn't think it would amount to much anyway.

Oh, and for pacelines I used L.A.S.T. I didn't do anything brilliant.

Here are the screen shots.

There is more than a two point spread in Raw Total Energy between the contenders. Therefore, I used the #2 Alternate adjustment.

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 02:45 AM

I wasn't expecting to see this:

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 02:48 AM

Hmm, makes it kind of hard to think #5's winning was an accident, doesn't it?

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 02:54 AM

I've never been a big fan of Exdc, but #5 sure looks far from hopless any way you slice it.

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 03:00 AM

I used to keep meticulous Energy records at Saratoga in the 1980s, logging everything to the tiniest detail. I spent hours and hours doing it and it helped. I'm not sure it was worth all the effort, but it did help.

Note how you could have snagged this race with Energy using zero record keeping. And on polytrack no less.

Energy is indeed still alive and kickin'.

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 03:04 AM

Postscript

What would have happened if I'd used the #1 Automatic adjustment instead of the Alternate adjustment?

alydar_ David · 08-20-2007, 03:07 AM

Answer: the variegate changes to Sustained...but looks who's number one in SP

08-20-2007, 02:48 AM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Hmm, makes it kind of hard to think #5's winning was an accident, doesn't it? Attached Images

08-20-2007, 02:54 AM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I've never been a big fan of Exdc, but #5 sure looks far from hopless any way you slice it. Attached Images

08-20-2007, 03:04 AM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Postscript What would have happened if I'd used the #1 Automatic adjustment instead of the Alternate adjustment? Attached Images

08-20-2007, 03:07 AM	#7
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Answer: the variegate changes to Sustained...but looks who's number one in SP Attached Images

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08-20-2007, 02:42 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Energy! (still alive and kickin') After losing The Pacific Classic today I was at a loss for words. For one thing I was thrilled to bet A.P.Xcellent at good odds. The horse had "tandem, bet me I'm going to win" written all over him. I was anticipating a major score. As if it wasn't bad enough that he fell apart, to add insult to injury a "hopeless" horse -- #5 Student Council -- made it to the winner's circle paying $48.80 to win. How could this be? This horse couldn't even pull off a Grade 3 win. And what's this? He has no Grade 2 races showing? And he's entered today with these monsters in a Grade 1 event? Has the world gone upside down? Or, could it be easily explained because he switched trainers to Vladimir Cerin (and most of know the dubious nick for his surname and that implication). I was obsessed...on a mission...had to see if any of my programs could pick this up. So, I started checking the race out with most of the programs I have (and I've got plenty of them). Results: nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, bingo! I'll preface this by saying the contenders were arrived at by strictly following KGEN procedures from The Follow Up. They are not the contenders I personally selected when I handicapped the race "my way" before the fact. Nor are they Class/APV contenders (although they might be, I didn't even look at that). Indeed, my favorite horse, A.P.Xcellent didn't even make the cut. So be it. I was going "by the letter of the law" and letting it take me where it may. Note, I almost always used five contenders when I was using Energy many years ago. In this race the fifth contender really wasn't a contender and I decided not to force the issue doing it my way. I went with the top four because that's what I was supposed to do. Again, I wasn't trying to prove anything and didn't think it would amount to much anyway. Oh, and for pacelines I used L.A.S.T. I didn't do anything brilliant. Here are the screen shots. There is more than a two point spread in Raw Total Energy between the contenders. Therefore, I used the #2 Alternate adjustment. Attached Images

08-20-2007, 02:45 AM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I wasn't expecting to see this: Attached Images

08-20-2007, 03:00 AM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I used to keep meticulous Energy records at Saratoga in the 1980s, logging everything to the tiniest detail. I spent hours and hours doing it and it helped. I'm not sure it was worth all the effort, but it did help. Note how you could have snagged this race with Energy using zero record keeping. And on polytrack no less. Energy is indeed still alive and kickin'. Attached Images