Getting The Contenders Down - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 07-11-2006, 09:21 PM

Richie,Im wondering how the readouts would have been if you didnt project the 4 horse.By doing that you could have produced a false variegate.Jeff

admin · 07-11-2006, 09:30 PM

Rich
I would say the program did its job
The winner is top 3 raw TE the variegate is Early
the program has it ranked third on paragon A
looking at the final odds its a tough call between the 4 7 and 8
I need to redownload the philly card mine gets me a error message
I will work the race myself too

JoeLong · 07-12-2006, 12:36 AM

Richie,

I would say the software did its job. The 8 jumps off the screen, go and reread FU #26, starting with page #4 DC/Pars where Doc goes in-depth in explaining TT & hidden energy.

Based on the match-up of this race the 10 will hinder the 4's ability to run its Early race with success, if the 8 gets any trip at all he has the TT to defeat this field, look at his 2nd fraction figure of 32.91 and his good 3rd fraction, this race will not go Early, the speed should break down.

BTW Great paceline picking, how about if you pick the pacelines and I interpret the readouts?

Rxlawyer · 07-12-2006, 06:42 AM

Richie:

It might be hard to answer the question of whether the program did its job. There are so many variables. However, the starting point for me is that the program always does its job. The better question concerns input.

Looking at what actually happened (which I like to do to understand a race better) it seems the paceline for the #4 might be in question. It might be too fast at some fraction. That might have originated when adjustments were made before data entry.

I always like to put everything in raw and see what it looks like after I look at my lines carefully to make sure I have used the most suitable lines available for the horse. Then, when there is an issue, I will look at the Energy manually adjusted numbers to see how bringing all of the total energy numbers even impacts the printouts.

In this sample race I think the pace of the race made a difference because the 4 and 7 were evenly matched pressers leaving an opening for the closer.

Any other ideas?

Gary

RichieP · 07-12-2006, 07:41 AM

Hi guys,
Thanx so much for all the feedback.

I enttered the line for the 4 from it's original 7f dist and it had a FIVE point advantage total Energy. I knew that wasnt real so I sent it into selector. The resulting paceline is what I entered and that's what the readouts show.

The # 10 I used a turf route ( last line) because
a) had not shown any dirt races
b) pace of that race was quick 22.4-47.1-113.3

My first instinct when I saw the variegate " early" was that it was totally wrong. Clue was when I see the 36% f1 Energy on the 10. **** sprinters usually cant win with that high a number.

when I removed the 10 still showed early. that 4's projected line is the cause I see now.

I honestly think the software DID it's job. it showed the 7 and 8 VERY close readout wise ( uxr).

I have been taking 2 races a day and trying something I read in 1 of the earlier followup's that a friend of Howard outlined as his method.

a) entering the pacelines into KGEN
b) the first screen that pops up has a readout all the way on the right called " Kexdc". This is Howard's deceleration stuff at work ( whatever the hell it's doing it works! )with higherst number being best I keep the top 5 as my final contenders.

I scratch everyone else and save the race file. then I open Energy and load the race. Easy.

have worked a total of 8 races in four days.

7 winners
6 exactas
5 trifectas

in the resulting contenders and some races the five are reduced to 4 sometimes even 3 because of NOTHING readout wise for a horse ( s).

quite amazing to be honest in my opinion.

of course I have NOT bet them because I wanted to test it figuring this can't work. it's too easy. Dope.

2 screen shots showing the 10 eliminated.

thanx guys. appreciate the feedback man

Rich

RichieP · 07-12-2006, 07:42 AM

exdc shot

Houndog · 07-12-2006, 02:06 PM

I am a little late with my comments, but when I saw your screenshots several things jumped out at me which others including yourself have already referred to. The #10 with the 36+ in F1 is really high, and the F3 of course is 29+. Too much early and not enought late. Although 10 is a 0.00 Muv horse his other low rankings in the sort indicates he is a false 0.00 Muv horse. This is one of the few things I use the sort for.

As JoeB alluded to #8's better F2 readout is significant. Regardless of the Variegate predictor I don't see this race setting up as Early. The #8 with a MUV over 3 generally would be cause for concern, but as Gary said the 4 and 7 are close in Presser ability. This would be one of the times that the Match-Up would set up for a horse of this type.

I would have to say you and Energy did a very good job. You got the horses down to 3 and they all came in. The only other comment is with a horse such as #4 when they look that good on all the readouts they usually don't win for me.

Giacomo76 · 07-12-2006, 03:59 PM

Houndog !!!!!!!!!!! Im on here this is Joe Kidd Goo boulavard loubnge

Houndog · 07-12-2006, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giacomo76

Houndog !!!!!!!!!!! Im on here this is Joe Kidd Goo boulavard loubnge

Way to go, welcome aboard. Be sure to look around and read the posts. They have some really knowledgeable people here. If you have any questions be sure to ask, all the people are very helpful here. Even if you are not familiar with the Sartin Methodology this is a great starting point for you to learn about it.

I will check with you this weekend.

shoeless · 07-12-2006, 04:41 PM

Hat thought KXEDC was one of the most powerful indicators.

07-11-2006, 09:30 PM	#12
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Tuff Rich I would say the program did its job The winner is top 3 raw TE the variegate is Early the program has it ranked third on paragon A looking at the final odds its a tough call between the 4 7 and 8 I need to redownload the philly card mine gets me a error message I will work the race myself too

07-12-2006, 07:41 AM	#15
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Thank you! Hi guys, Thanx so much for all the feedback. I enttered the line for the 4 from it's original 7f dist and it had a FIVE point advantage total Energy. I knew that wasnt real so I sent it into selector. The resulting paceline is what I entered and that's what the readouts show. The # 10 I used a turf route ( last line) because a) had not shown any dirt races b) pace of that race was quick 22.4-47.1-113.3 My first instinct when I saw the variegate " early" was that it was totally wrong. Clue was when I see the 36% f1 Energy on the 10. **** sprinters usually cant win with that high a number. when I removed the 10 still showed early. that 4's projected line is the cause I see now. I honestly think the software DID it's job. it showed the 7 and 8 VERY close readout wise ( uxr). I have been taking 2 races a day and trying something I read in 1 of the earlier followup's that a friend of Howard outlined as his method. a) entering the pacelines into KGEN b) the first screen that pops up has a readout all the way on the right called " Kexdc". This is Howard's deceleration stuff at work ( whatever the hell it's doing it works! )with higherst number being best I keep the top 5 as my final contenders. I scratch everyone else and save the race file. then I open Energy and load the race. Easy. have worked a total of 8 races in four days. 7 winners 6 exactas 5 trifectas in the resulting contenders and some races the five are reduced to 4 sometimes even 3 because of NOTHING readout wise for a horse ( s). quite amazing to be honest in my opinion. of course I have NOT bet them because I wanted to test it figuring this can't work. it's too easy. Dope. 2 screen shots showing the 10 eliminated. thanx guys. appreciate the feedback man Rich Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-12-2006, 07:42 AM	#16
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	exdc shot Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Match-Up Contenders	Houndog	Hat Check - How Can We Help You?	2	05-18-2006 11:19 AM
Bad Contenders = Bad Readouts Philly 9th	shoeless	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	9	12-20-2005 11:16 AM

07-11-2006, 09:21 PM	#11
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Richie,Im wondering how the readouts would have been if you didnt project the 4 horse.By doing that you could have produced a false variegate.Jeff

07-12-2006, 12:36 AM	#13
JoeLong Grade 3 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 50	Richie, I would say the software did its job. The 8 jumps off the screen, go and reread FU #26, starting with page #4 DC/Pars where Doc goes in-depth in explaining TT & hidden energy. Based on the match-up of this race the 10 will hinder the 4's ability to run its Early race with success, if the 8 gets any trip at all he has the TT to defeat this field, look at his 2nd fraction figure of 32.91 and his good 3rd fraction, this race will not go Early, the speed should break down. BTW Great paceline picking, how about if you pick the pacelines and I interpret the readouts?

07-12-2006, 06:42 AM	#14
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Richie: It might be hard to answer the question of whether the program did its job. There are so many variables. However, the starting point for me is that the program always does its job. The better question concerns input. Looking at what actually happened (which I like to do to understand a race better) it seems the paceline for the #4 might be in question. It might be too fast at some fraction. That might have originated when adjustments were made before data entry. I always like to put everything in raw and see what it looks like after I look at my lines carefully to make sure I have used the most suitable lines available for the horse. Then, when there is an issue, I will look at the Energy manually adjusted numbers to see how bringing all of the total energy numbers even impacts the printouts. In this sample race I think the pace of the race made a difference because the 4 and 7 were evenly matched pressers leaving an opening for the closer. Any other ideas? Gary

07-12-2006, 02:06 PM	#17
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	I am a little late with my comments, but when I saw your screenshots several things jumped out at me which others including yourself have already referred to. The #10 with the 36+ in F1 is really high, and the F3 of course is 29+. Too much early and not enought late. Although 10 is a 0.00 Muv horse his other low rankings in the sort indicates he is a false 0.00 Muv horse. This is one of the few things I use the sort for. As JoeB alluded to #8's better F2 readout is significant. Regardless of the Variegate predictor I don't see this race setting up as Early. The #8 with a MUV over 3 generally would be cause for concern, but as Gary said the 4 and 7 are close in Presser ability. This would be one of the times that the Match-Up would set up for a horse of this type. I would have to say you and Energy did a very good job. You got the horses down to 3 and they all came in. The only other comment is with a horse such as #4 when they look that good on all the readouts they usually don't win for me.

07-12-2006, 03:59 PM	#18
Giacomo76 Maiden Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 3	Houndog !!!!!!!!!!! Im on here this is Joe Kidd Goo boulavard loubnge

07-12-2006, 04:41 PM	#20
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Hat thought KXEDC was one of the most powerful indicators.