7f lines for a mile race

[Latekick]

I've been handicapping Saratoga mainly this summer so far and Monday i found myself running into a problem that i have often run into this summer. Horses with impressive races going 7f in a race carded today for a mile. I remember reading somewhere on this website a while back that its okay to use a line if its within 1 furlong of today's distance. Well i found myself being somewhat inconsistent when trying to use a 7f race as a line for a two turn race today. My question is, should i not use any 7f races if today's race is a mile, even if the horse has a few races going 1 mile but they are sub par and they have a nice 7f race within 3 of the last comparable?
My question plain and simple is, should i be using lines at 7f for a 1 mile race?

[Bill Lyster]

Whether you use 7 furlong lines in longer races or not you still have to adjust them to see if they are playable in todays race.

In the Haskell, if you did not account for Bayern's last 7f race and project from it, you never really see that he could get a lead that no one would challenge. Unfortunately, I tossed the pps, but he came out of a 120.3 or better 7f race. so to adjust you add 2 fifths to get 121.0 and then multiply the number of half furlongs x 6.4 seconds to get the adjusted final time. Haskell was at 9f, so 4 x 6.4 = 25.6 seconds added to 121. (in tenths now) to get 146.6. No one in that race had broken 147 or maybe even 148. He ran 147.2 to win. See the Haskell comments in Races of Interest awhile back. There is also a Matchup race referenced where this played a part.

In the Haskell Bayern's last race was 7f. If he had been a route race after the 7f race and he had not run back to the adjusted time, then you probably place more reliance on the best route that meets the pace scenario at which you are currently looking. But you need to do the adjustment in any event to see if your horse is getting better or worse.

Regards,

[Bill V.]

Hi late kick

Even though Parx runs 1 mile races around two turns and 7 furlongs
on the dirt is out of a long chute and 1 turn, 7 furlong horses win 8 furlong race very often and 8 furlong routers win very often when the y shorten up

The reason I see is the horse who run 7 furlongs at Parx run on average slower
first fractions and second calls than the 6 furlong horses

Here are some averages from my DB for older Claimers Non Maiden Males 6 7 and 8 furlong races at Parx
These are the Pace of Race



Average F1 6 F = 22.6
Average SC 6 F = 45.8
Average F1 7F = 23.5
Average SC 7F = 46.5
Average F1 8F = 48.4

So the horses in 7 furlong races at Parx are being rated to run slower even though they are running down a long strait chute

I guess the answer lies in why are horse running in 7 furlongs rather than shorter sprints

[Ryan.p.coli]

This is an excellent question and I would love to see what some of the responses are.

If you're using RDSS, the adjustments are made for you. I was talking to Ted last night about 1 and 2 turn miles and how I try to use 2 turn lines when we're looking at 2 turn races. After talking to Ted, I feel pretty confident that the adjustment can handle the difference.

We also agreed that if you're using Jim Bradshaw's Matchup with raw numbers, you should be comparing like kind races (ie Don't compare 1 turn races vs 2 turn races). This gets complicated with the NY circuit as Belmont is so big-1 turn races go up to 9f (maybe 9.5f, but I don't have the chart in front of me).

Bill L- I am a big Bayern believer, and I guessed correctly that his speed would neutralize Untappable in that race, bu tI would've had a hard time adjusting that 7f race to the 9f Haskell. I'm not sure that you would recommend doing that on a consistent basis either. For me it's likely that he's gotten to the next level vs what we saw from him in April/May of this year.

[sureshotlink]

Projecting sprint pace lines for 1 mile or longer routes is just that " projection"

Are the fractions and call times same as route races?

I always look first to see how a horse has done routing in their pp's.

if the horse is 1/25 routing would you rate the horse off a recent good effort sprinting? food 4 thought!

Paul Link

[Bill Lyster]

No, I always side with the preponderance of evidence 1/25 is many volumes worth.

However just recently I saw a horse that was 1/15 most of them foreign starts. This horse had 3 or 4 US starts and had been consistently a contender, ie finishing up close at 2nd call and or stretch (2.5 lengths in sprints, 3.5 L in routes up to 8.5 f and 4 L back at same calls in races of 9 furlongs or longer.

Nice win. Usually these kind of horses have one good race and all the rest duds, which leads one to exclude them often, often, often.

Bill