Pace line question

[Bill V.]

Here is my answer to pace line question

This might not be the best choice for everybody but its how I would
look at it.

The issue is which line would I use line 1 or line 3 ?

I would use line 3. Line 1 is a plus race, so is line 3
Line 1 has a speed rating of 80, Line 3 has a speed rating of 85
The 85 is not out of the norm for this horse I see it has run 86 speed ratings
in line 9 and line 6

The person who asked this question does not use RDSS but my decision is supported by the early late graph,
In line 3 the horse ran its normal energy pattern of about + 9 or 10
(his EP was 9 points higher than it LP )
In the last line the horse ran with more energy late than early
so it shows a -.5
It looks to me like this was a tired horse. The trainer gave it a 4 week freshening. after a plus race. I look at this as a positive form factor.
without that freshening break I would use line 1. But with that break,
I would use line 3

I would use line 3 over line 1