Saturday night - Delta Downs - "E" Proj Pace

[RichieP]

This is the 4th race from Delta this Saturday night. It is a 5f dash and continuing this race series we have a Proj Pace coming from the #10's last line at this track and distance

22.1 - 46.2 (in fifhts)

Here is the field and after punching in Proj Pace the lines that meet or exceed the pace.

Very best of luck/skill to all those who jump in

[RichieP]

...

[RichieP]

,.,

[raceman5]

I like 6-10-8

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

I'd say that the 11 and 10 with maybe the 2 try to get lead and knock each other out, leaving the 6 and 8

I'd favor the 8 as it runs closer to lead whereas 6 came out of the clouds and won one for the Martians.

8 on top of 6

Bill

[JIMBOB1002]

I like the 2-6-7.

Jim

[emilio840]

Hello everyone. Happy New Year to all. In this race I'll go with the #2 horse.

emilio

[Capcondo]

With 15 minutes to post and the 11 and 12 scratched, here is what I have:



Of these, the one consistently closest to the lead is the 2. That is my choice.

GL

Tim

[For The Lead]

The first time I worked this race I followed my usual procedure. The #3 and #12 were eliminated because of ML 20/1 or greater, leaving ten horses. All of these horses had a race in the last 90 days and all had good lines, so as usual, I took the last line for each horse where the last race was a good line.

So here are the horses and lines.

#1 – LAST LINE, 31 days ago and the horse showed good early form by being 1st at the first two calls
#2 – LAST LINE, 21 days ago and the horse showed good early form by being 2nd at the first two calls
#3 – ELIMINATED ML
#4 – LAST LINE, 23 days ago and showed good form by making a middle move to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call
#5 – LAST LINE, 21 days ago and showed good early form by being 1st at the first two calls
#6 – LAST LINE, 38 days ago and won the race in good closing fashion
#7 – LAST LINE, 17 days ago and finished 3rd making up 3 positions
#8 – LAST LINE, 23 days ago finishing 3rd
#9 – LAST LINE, 21 days ago and made a middle move to make up some ground and be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call
#10 – LAST LINE, 38n days ago and showing good early formj by being first at the 1st and 2nd calls
#11 – SCR
#12 – ELIMINATED ML

Now an interesting thing happened. When I got to the “RANKINGS” screen in ENERGY, the numbers 1, 2, 5 and 9 were horrible (see screen shot below). The “COMMON DENOMINATOR” among these horses was that their last line was NOT a 5 furlong line like the remainder of the horses. In fact, some of the lines were as much as ¼ of a mile longer than today’s race. On that basis I eliminated the #1, 2, 5 and 9.
Take note: the #11 is not yet scratched in the below screen shot.

More in my next post.

[For The Lead]

Ok, so now I have removed the #’s 1, 2, 5 and 9 because their last lines were much longer than today’s distance of 5 furlongs and the remainder of the horses whose last line WERE from 5 furlong races. So what I did, was go back to these 4 horses and re-evaluate them.
Here’s how I looked at them.

#1 – throwing out the last line for the reason already mentioned, I looked at line 2 which is from a 5 furlong race. The horse did not display the standards for a paceline and therefore removed from further consideration
#2 – here is a horse that runs every time out. In the last ten races it has been on 5 different tracks and still runs its’ race every time. The question is, which race will it run today? I used this horse in another thread as an example of how to determine how a horse will run today based on the distance of today’s race. Here is the link.http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8051. We already know that using the last line on this horse gets it eliminated. As we look at this horses’ record, we can see that distance matters to this horse. And the only race it shows at 5 furlongs is its' 4th line back. Now I hate to go back 4 lines, but in this case, in this race, I feel compelled to do so. So the 4th line back will be the line I choose.
#5 – NO LINE for this horse. The closest it has run to today’s distance is 6.5 furlongs and we know we are not going to get that horse off of any of those lines
#9 – The only other line available for this horse in the last 90 days is line 2 at 5 furlongs. However, it just doesn’t meet the standards of line selection, so it is eliminated.

The final screen shots are below.

As you will see, ENERGY did not correctly pick the winner as it suggested a “sustained” horse would win the race and the #10, who ENERGY correctly had as the best early horse as seen on the EXDC MATCH UP (screen 5), went on to wire the field.
Also, the inclusion of #2 off the 4th line back seems to have been correct. The horse did not show early speed and did, in fact, close down the stretch.