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11-19-2013, 11:59 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Composite Speed Rating - CSR
Hello Ted and All
I was asked to explain what the CSR is ? I really am not that sure but I wanted to show you what I think it represents I hope you can correct anything I may not understand. Here is what I think the CSR is First I will show the "dashboard" for race 8 yesterday at Parx 11/18/13 The 0.0 horse is # 4 The winner of the race was # 9 I see that the 9 has a 11.6 deficiency from the CSR of the 0.0 4 horse. My thoughts The horse that is 0.0 has the best Composite speed rating of all the horses in the race. Now what is the CSR ? Here is what I think so I want to make sure I understand. If I add horse # 9's last 4 adjusted speed ratings I get a total of 304. If I add the last 4 adjusted speed ratings of horse 4 I get a total of 311. So just by basic math the 4 has a better total then the 9. But I think I understand that the last line is weighted favorably over each lower line. Since horse 4 ran a last line speed rating of 80 and horse 9 ran a last line speed rating of 68. This will improve horse 4's composite total so that explains the 11 percent advantage ? Thanks Bill - |
11-19-2013, 01:42 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,866
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Here you go Bill, it's all in the RDSS2 Release Notes Area (please see point #1):
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...77&postcount=3 The Entries screen (or 'Dashboard' ?) shows the CSR rank and a deviation (or gap) from best (best = 0.0%). The NewPace screen actually shows the CSR number, but the number itself is fairly meaningless (and thus, it doesn't matter if you have NewPace or not) - the rank and gap is what is most meaningful. The CSR rank is also shown on the BL/BL screen. Using the formula given, you can reproduce the actual number on the NP screen for confirmation, then derive the gap and rank. After that point, you can ignore the actual number and just work with the rank (and maybe the gap to see if any ranks are only marginally different). The Entries screen and the BL/BL screen are then all you need. Hope that helps! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-19-2013 at 03:59 PM. |
11-19-2013, 03:43 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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New Pace screen
Ted
thank you Here are the actual number from the New Pace Screen |
11-19-2013, 06:15 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 203
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Hi Ted,
I've read the CSR release notes posting. I have a question in the back of my mind which is that the note states the last four usable lines. To clarify my understanding, if the horse has 10 lines showing and the first and fourth do not have usable information (due to it was foggy, or one of the tracks doesn't record fractional times) then the calculation is made from the second, third, fifth and sixth lines. Is that correct? I have been doing some testing myself in the similiar vein that Richard Mathie (rmath) has been doing. Dick (kahunab) always said that from his records the winner was in the top 5 CSR 90% of the time. It frustrated me because I would not get close to those figures. In speaking with Richard (rmath) about his settings on the configure tab, my percentages went up a bit, but, not close to the percentages both Dick and Richard are getting. I decided to do some "research". Following Richard's guidelines, I set my configure tab to Use 100% of DTV - Default Mode and +/-20 range of min/max DTV. I also followed his other guidelines for selecting races to use, pacelines to select, etc... For 100 races (I know that the population could/should be much higher, but, I am looking for an indication and not representative figures) from 11/01/13 to 11/03/13, I had the winner in my top 5 CSR only 75% of the time from all of the tracks available for that period. Hmmm.... Now I changed only one variable - from Default mode to Val4 Emulation mode. Granted, I've only worked 34 more races (definitely hardly a indicative figure, but....) and my winner in the top 5 CSR percentage has jumped up to 82%. This was encouraging because when I have a population of 100 races, I think I will be around the same percentage. If I am right..."if"... I will bump up the +/-20 range to 50 and see what happens. I have an inkling it should increrase the percentage up a bit more. Hopefully, my percentage will be where I think it should be. I've taken a little detour from my original question with the purpose of stating that to get the optimal use of CSR, settings on the Config tab may need to be changed for those who are interested. Back to the original question, by understanding the last four usable as to how it figures in the calculation may possibly allow me to include a race into my research rather than tossing out the race because I am not sure if the CSR for that horse is truly representative of that particular horse. Including a race or not including it is not going to change the data sample. What it will do is to ease my mind a bit for when I do toss a race instead of wondering if I am making the right call "at that moment". Thanks for you input, Jim
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I can explain it to you, but, I can't understand it for you. |
11-19-2013, 07:29 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Q and A
I would like to some questions about CSR and percentages of top 5
statistic To Rmath, Kahunhab and BIC Jim I would like to ask questions in small steps The very first question I have concerns horse 9 from the same race as I used in the opening post Based on the fact that there were no scratches, the winner # 9 as it stand now was NOT in the top 5 CSR / Is this correct ? Your answers to this question will lead me to my second question thanks Bill |
11-19-2013, 08:05 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 130
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The 5 lowest odds on the tote board will have the winner 80% of the time year in and year out without doing any calculations. A little bit of handicapping and you should be able to improve on it.
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11-19-2013, 08:32 PM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,866
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Quote:
Ted .
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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11-19-2013, 08:34 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Csr
Bill, the 9 horse in your example ranks 6 on csr
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11-19-2013, 08:38 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Some CSR stats
Bill, In the last 539 races I had the winner in the top 5 CSR numbers 484 times 89.8% In the top 4 446 or 82.7%
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11-19-2013, 08:53 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 203
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PRX 8 Nov 18, 2013 - CSR
Hey Bill,
Here are my screenshots. You are correct - the winner # 9 as it stand now was NOT in the top 5 CSR. However, i state this with one "Caveat"... I had it ranked #6 based upon my configuration settings. As you can see I also posted my configuration settings. To anyone viewing this - a word of warning..... changing your settings will change your calculations. To see what I mean, I changed my configuration settings. In the following post, I changed my settings to "something else" and horse 9 now has a ranking of 7th and the figures on the New Pace tab have also changed.
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