Ponder This - Pace and Cap

chris · 03-13-2010, 11:45 AM

OP Race 10, the Rebel Stakes, G2

Why would anyone put bliners on a horse - "Looking At Lucy" - who has five wins from six starts, whose only loss came in the BC Juvenile, and that by a head, all while not wearing blinkers.

Competent trainers don't experiment. especially in major races, with a winning formula. And this is a competent trainer! Believe something is a miss here.

Right or wrong, I wouldn't consider a bet on "Lucy" - morning line of 7/5, however I believe the horse will go off at even money or less. If I'm right in my analysis of this horse, a number of profitable options will be on the table. And if I'm wrong? I'll be out a $1.80 or less for every $2.00 wagered. I'll try to live with that.

Regards,
Chris

mikesal57 · 03-15-2010, 08:52 AM

he won by a nose I guess he knew what he was doing..maybe he wanted the horse to concentrate on whats in front of him and not look at whats next to him coming down the stretch..nice ride

chris · 03-15-2010, 11:53 AM

Will have to forego the joy of cashing a $4.20 win ticket. Recall that I thought it would only pay $3.80; an overlay, a missed opportunity, who knows? I'll get over it.

If I sound defensive you'll forgive me. Some general comments; if you find them constructive, fine, if not, disregard them. Know I'll be wrong more often than not. Never thought of myself as a great handicapper, what I do know, is how to take money out of the races consistently. And do so by applying a non-traditional approach, in much the same spirit, as the programs many of us use, evaluates a race. The first handicapping question I address in any race is "What is the crowd" (handicappers) likely to do - not who's going to win. The second, how will I structure the bet, and finally is there enough parimutual advantage to even bet the race. And most important, I acknowledge years of positive experience by relying on first impressions, they're often right. The Rebel Stakes was one such example, and I was wrong. Rachael Alexandra's 2010 debut was another, and here I was right. One out of two is better than my average.

Looking back on those two races, I believe the parimutual advantage was not pronounced enough to warant a bet in the Rebel. And had "lucky" enjoyed a less eventful trip his winning margin would have been larger. Rachael's race was ripe with parimutual advantage and worth a bet. Posted a winning trifecta ticket of this race on another thread; an example of how to structure a profitable bet that includes a 2/5 horse. Nothing instructive by posting my winning ticket, and it wasn't typical of how I bet.

It's not enough to think outside of the box (overlays) you have to step out of the box and make the bet.

Regards,
Chris

03-13-2010, 11:45 AM	#1
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	Ponder This OP Race 10, the Rebel Stakes, G2 Why would anyone put bliners on a horse - "Looking At Lucy" - who has five wins from six starts, whose only loss came in the BC Juvenile, and that by a head, all while not wearing blinkers. Competent trainers don't experiment. especially in major races, with a winning formula. And this is a competent trainer! Believe something is a miss here. Right or wrong, I wouldn't consider a bet on "Lucy" - morning line of 7/5, however I believe the horse will go off at even money or less. If I'm right in my analysis of this horse, a number of profitable options will be on the table. And if I'm wrong? I'll be out a $1.80 or less for every $2.00 wagered. I'll try to live with that. Regards, Chris

03-15-2010, 08:52 AM	#2
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	he won by a nose I guess he knew what he was doing..maybe he wanted the horse to concentrate on whats in front of him and not look at whats next to him coming down the stretch..nice ride __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

03-15-2010, 11:53 AM	#3
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	Trainer was right! Will have to forego the joy of cashing a $4.20 win ticket. Recall that I thought it would only pay $3.80; an overlay, a missed opportunity, who knows? I'll get over it. If I sound defensive you'll forgive me. Some general comments; if you find them constructive, fine, if not, disregard them. Know I'll be wrong more often than not. Never thought of myself as a great handicapper, what I do know, is how to take money out of the races consistently. And do so by applying a non-traditional approach, in much the same spirit, as the programs many of us use, evaluates a race. The first handicapping question I address in any race is "What is the crowd" (handicappers) likely to do - not who's going to win. The second, how will I structure the bet, and finally is there enough parimutual advantage to even bet the race. And most important, I acknowledge years of positive experience by relying on first impressions, they're often right. The Rebel Stakes was one such example, and I was wrong. Rachael Alexandra's 2010 debut was another, and here I was right. One out of two is better than my average. Looking back on those two races, I believe the parimutual advantage was not pronounced enough to warant a bet in the Rebel. And had "lucky" enjoyed a less eventful trip his winning margin would have been larger. Rachael's race was ripe with parimutual advantage and worth a bet. Posted a winning trifecta ticket of this race on another thread; an example of how to structure a profitable bet that includes a 2/5 horse. Nothing instructive by posting my winning ticket, and it wasn't typical of how I bet. It's not enough to think outside of the box (overlays) you have to step out of the box and make the bet. Regards, Chris