Straight outta the matchup forum - Pace and Cap

The Pook · 12-20-2022, 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1

Thanks cratman. It seems there is a lot more interest in this format. Hopefully more folks will start putting up a race or 2. Would like to see how others approach races.
Tim

Okay here is one from my weekend that was straight forward. The matchup at its purest. All I needed to know was in the first screenshot. The #2 is an early with by far the best first quarter. Two races back a 21.8. Only the #9 has come close but not recently. An example of an early horse that can no longer get on top of its fractions. The #2 can multi-call fight also as evidenced by his tenth paceline.

How did I know he wouldn't fold this time? I didn't, but guessed he would have an easier time getting the first fraction and then might be able to finish.

And the chart shows exactly that. The #2 gets away with a 22.2 first and thats that. He didn't look back. No trainer stats, no models, just pure matching. They are still out there folks.

$200 on the nose. $880 back. Sweet.

Pook

Lt1 · 12-20-2022, 04:46 AM

Nice work Mike. Thanks for posting this race.
Tim

darmar · 12-20-2022, 07:12 AM

Great hit Pook. Sometimes they just leap off the page for you.
Darryl

ranchwest · 12-20-2022, 11:19 AM

Could someone look at this race and tell me if you would have #6 as a Richie longshot? I suspect it would be, but I don't calculate the numbers the same as RDSS. if so, this 2-10-6 was a great trifecta play, paying $89.45 on a 50 cent ticket.

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12-20-2022, 04:46 AM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,164	Nice work Mike. Thanks for posting this race. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

12-20-2022, 07:12 AM	#3
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,179	Great hit Pook. Sometimes they just leap off the page for you. Darryl

12-20-2022, 11:19 AM	#4
ranchwest Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,489	Could someone look at this race and tell me if you would have #6 as a Richie longshot? I suspect it would be, but I don't calculate the numbers the same as RDSS. if so, this 2-10-6 was a great trifecta play, paying $89.45 on a 50 cent ticket.