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Old 05-12-2007, 06:54 AM   #21
RichieP
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Originally Posted by mufasa View Post
Currently my handicapping approach is based on "The Hat's" recent book Match Up 2. to use his early or late running race ideas and the general need to match running lines of the copntenders so as to reach the eventual 4-5 preferred contenders. In this regard, as to Speculator 160, in helping me to pick my own pace lines how best can I utilize the very first screens-that is before any calculations are made and/or reduction of contenders to the 4-5 is considered. I have been thinking of using Perceptor 1 (which is available in the pace line selection area via F3) with its pace line ranking to either point me in the right direction or more importantly to help me pick the best line especially when I am fighting over more then one line to use. How does the Perceptor 1 in this early screen come to its ranking? In any pace line that I do pick it must have been a good form race.

I enjoy the software very much even though I am just starting out with it and still have a large learning curve to get through. It certainly gives me allot of information to work with but I need to know what is pertinent in today's race and/or match up.
Thanks,
RR
Good morning "Mu"
Is there a race or 2 that you could show using YOUR approach that worked out great?

Asking because having an idea how YOU work a race and things that are important to YOU in your interpretation of the matchup will make it easier to
suggest some things to CONSIDER.

Richie
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Old 05-12-2007, 09:24 AM   #22
mufasa
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Richie:

Thanks for trying to help me. As of now I have nothing that has worked out great but then today is really my first attempt at using Spec160 as a tool in my handicapping/selection process. I used it once before (last week) but that was really and experience in maneuvering around a DOS software. Perhaps when I return home from Belmont today I will have some successful races to discuss or at least more pointed questions as to what I am trying to do.

Right now I am trying to utilize the Match Up 2 concepts in my pace line selections and when not sure I try to select the best effort (speed rating) against the best 2nd call pace time (rating) in the PP’s. The selected lines must have been in a good form race (win, or within 2.75L in sprints and 3.50L in routes) at similar surface and distance when possible. Sometimes when it comes to surface and distance I have to pick the best possible and in maiden races I try to stay within last 3 races (no matter the finish).

My thinking originally (and still testing) was that I could use the Perceptor 1 (F3) in the first screen when I need help in selecting a pace line, especially if I am not sure between 2 or more lines. In fact, there is something that I just noticed while going over the Belmont card for today and that is that many of my preferred pace lines were not rated well (5 or higher) and that made me a little uneasy. I have done 2 calculations: one with agreed pace lines rated on Perceptor 1 at no more then a ranking of 3 or better and another calculation with my own preferred pace lines no matter the P1 ranking. I have printed some of the screens to take to the track consisting of both calculations so lets see what happens. [Thanks Ted your advice on how best to print with Speculator 160 did the trick for me. Ted helped me with how best to print on an earlier post.]

What I really wanted to know at this early time in my learning process especially since many times the Perceptor 1 rankings do not necessarily agree with my pace line selections for the race—is how exactly is the Perceptor 1ranking the lines? How or does it take into account surface and distance? Sometimes it rank’s a not so hot finish higher then another race that is at similar distance with a better finish. I need to have a good idea of how exactly (or close to it) Perceptor 1 works so that I can use it with confidence and ignore its ranking when I feel better about my choice or otherwise ignore my choice of pace line and go with the higher ranked.

Thanks. I am sorry about the extensive post.

RR

Last edited by mufasa; 05-12-2007 at 09:30 AM.
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Old 05-13-2007, 08:46 AM   #23
RichieP
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Originally Posted by mufasa View Post
Richie:

Thanks for trying to help me. As of now I have nothing that has worked out great but then today is really my first attempt at using Spec160 as a tool in my handicapping/selection process. I used it once before (last week) but that was really and experience in maneuvering around a DOS software. Perhaps when I return home from Belmont today I will have some successful races to discuss or at least more pointed questions as to what I am trying to do.

Right now I am trying to utilize the Match Up 2 concepts in my pace line selections and when not sure I try to select the best effort (speed rating) against the best 2nd call pace time (rating) in the PP’s. The selected lines must have been in a good form race (win, or within 2.75L in sprints and 3.50L in routes) at similar surface and distance when possible. Sometimes when it comes to surface and distance I have to pick the best possible and in maiden races I try to stay within last 3 races (no matter the finish).

My thinking originally (and still testing) was that I could use the Perceptor 1 (F3) in the first screen when I need help in selecting a pace line, especially if I am not sure between 2 or more lines. In fact, there is something that I just noticed while going over the Belmont card for today and that is that many of my preferred pace lines were not rated well (5 or higher) and that made me a little uneasy. I have done 2 calculations: one with agreed pace lines rated on Perceptor 1 at no more then a ranking of 3 or better and another calculation with my own preferred pace lines no matter the P1 ranking. I have printed some of the screens to take to the track consisting of both calculations so lets see what happens. [Thanks Ted your advice on how best to print with Speculator 160 did the trick for me. Ted helped me with how best to print on an earlier post.]

What I really wanted to know at this early time in my learning process especially since many times the Perceptor 1 rankings do not necessarily agree with my pace line selections for the race—is how exactly is the Perceptor 1ranking the lines? How or does it take into account surface and distance? Sometimes it rank’s a not so hot finish higher then another race that is at similar distance with a better finish. I need to have a good idea of how exactly (or close to it) Perceptor 1 works so that I can use it with confidence and ignore its ranking when I feel better about my choice or otherwise ignore my choice of pace line and go with the higher ranked.

Thanks. I am sorry about the extensive post.

RR
Hi Mu
Perceptor 1 is combining of SEVEN (7) factors:
1) Early pace rating - Epr
2) Late pace rating - Lpr
3) Composite pace rating - Cpr
4) Turn time - Tt
5) Factor win or "Fw" - Fw
6) Hidden energy - He
7) Factor x or Fx - Fx

On the PACELINE screen with Perceptor 1 the horse's pacelines are matched against HIMSELF.

For example in the screenshot attached the FIFTH (5) line down is the best EPR rating the horse has run in the 10 lines showing on his pp's.

The FOURTH line down shows the highest possible 100 score in Lpr,Cpr,He,Fx.

Now the cloumn to the right "Tot 1" is simply adding the 7 factors up for that particular paceline and shows the total ok? The "R" to the right is a RANKING of the lines according to the totals.

So the line on the pp's where the horse performed HIS best OVERALL (ignoring individual corrolaies and focusing on the whole) would be that 4th line shown by the 1 ranking under "R". Next best overall would be the turf line above it. Third best would be line 8 another turf route. etc etc.

here is this screenshot
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Old 05-13-2007, 08:59 AM   #24
RichieP
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ok so now you have selected pacelines for the field. On the menu screen you see a "perceptor" screen ( screen 6). Let's go there.

Once pacelines for the field have been selected this screen's Perceptor now matches the horses against ONE ANOTHER using those same 7 factors Mu.

So in this screenshot the 5 horse is best early ( 100 total in Epr). The 1 horse is best late (100 total in lpr). The 4 horse is best composite or Cpr. This is more of an early/late balanced ranking Mu.

Now over to the right we see the old "Tot-I" again. This time it is adding up the lines of the field. The "R" shows the 6 Oodles as being best OVERALL in this matchup of selected pacelines. The 4 Dancy is a close 2nd OVERALL.

To see this we have a "Diff" column. The 6 being best shows nothing. The
2nd best 4 horse shows he is 4.3 points total behind the top ranked 6.

Then there is a HUGE gap from the 4 to the 3rd best horse OVERALL the 1 horse. he is showing 22.9 points behind the top rated 6 horse which also puts him like 18 behind the 2nd best 4 horse.

Top 2 here look very strong Mu.

Hey hope this helps you a little bit with the Perceptor stuff ok?

Initially on the PACELINE screen the Perceptor matches the horse against ITSELF.

Once contenders are chosen the 6 screen Perceptor then switches the focus to matching the horses in the race against one another.

Richie
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Last edited by RichieP; 05-13-2007 at 09:03 AM.
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Old 05-13-2007, 10:31 AM   #25
mufasa
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RichieP:

Thanks a million for your excellent and very helpful explanation. Now I can use these particular 2 screens with much more confidence in the areas of initial analysis of pace line selection and then carry that forward to reduction to no more then 5 contenders and eventual 1-2 choices for win. Now I fully understand Ted’s initial advice to utilize these screens (especially P1 after pace line selection and calculations) as a base tool.

I want to let you know that I had the best day ever at Belmont yesterday wining 6 out of 9 races bet which included win, exacta, and even some trifecta hits. My top 5 contenders won 7 of 9 races and I collected on 6 of those. This great day could not have happen without the Speculator 160 information. I have always been a numbers guy when it comes to handicapping so I am sold and look forward to RDSS. Form considerations is very important but you need to start with solid pace line selection.

Thanks again,

RR
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Old 05-13-2007, 01:49 PM   #26
Turbulator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
Hi Mu
Perceptor 1 is combining of SEVEN (7) factors:
1) Early pace rating - Epr
2) Late pace rating - Lpr
3) Composite pace rating - Cpr
4) Turn time - Tt
5) Factor win or "Fw" - Fw
6) Hidden energy - He
7) Factor x or Fx - Fx

On the PACELINE screen with Perceptor 1 the horse's pacelines are matched against HIMSELF.

For example in the screenshot attached the FIFTH (5) line down is the best EPR rating the horse has run in the 10 lines showing on his pp's.

The FOURTH line down shows the highest possible 100 score in Lpr,Cpr,He,Fx.

Now the cloumn to the right "Tot 1" is simply adding the 7 factors up for that particular paceline and shows the total ok? The "R" to the right is a RANKING of the lines according to the totals.

So the line on the pp's where the horse performed HIS best OVERALL (ignoring individual corrolaies and focusing on the whole) would be that 4th line shown by the 1 ranking under "R". Next best overall would be the turf line above it. Third best would be line 8 another turf route. etc etc.

here is this screenshot
Which paceline would YOU select for this horse? Would you take the last race because it was a win, or would you go with the 8.5F race because it is the same distance. Or...would you take the fourth race back because it is his best and, well "only" four races back.

Do you stick with the last "three comparable" pretty closely or is it simply a judgment call.

After all his last race win has a 16.4 differential over his fourth race back, and I'm guessing it would make a significant difference whether or not you selected line one or line four. There is also a five point difference in speed rating.

Thanks.
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Old 05-13-2007, 04:32 PM   #27
RichieP
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Which paceline would YOU select for this horse? Would you take the last race because it was a win, or would you go with the 8.5F race because it is the same distance. Or...would you take the fourth race back because it is his best and, well "only" four races back.

Do you stick with the last "three comparable" pretty closely or is it simply a judgment call.

After all his last race win has a 16.4 differential over his fourth race back, and I'm guessing it would make a significant difference whether or not you selected line one or line four. There is also a five point difference in speed rating.
Thanks.
Since I am only looking at raw lines Steve I would use line 2 as his fastest mile time where he was on the lead at the stretch call and then use the Cby turf splits for a faster pace of race in my head if thsi horse was a final contender to matchup.

attached is a screenshot.
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Old 05-13-2007, 04:38 PM   #28
Turbulator
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Since I am only looking at raw lines Steve I would use line 2 as his fastest mile time where he was on the lead at the stretch call and then use the Cby turf splits for a faster pace of race in my head if thsi horse was a final contender to matchup.

attached is a screenshot.
Okay, thanks for that, Rich. It looks like you're really starting to mix and match pace lines using the matchup. That's great. You're leaps and bounds ahead of me in that regard.

But just for the sake of discussion, let's say you were doing things the "old" way and using Validator or Speculator and not matching up.

In that case which line would you use--and why?

Thanks.
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Old 05-13-2007, 04:48 PM   #29
RichieP
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let's say you were doing things the "old" way and using Validator or Speculator

In that case which line would you use--and why?

Thanks.
I'd use line 3. Best of last 3 comparable Steve
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Old 05-13-2007, 07:43 PM   #30
mufasa
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Originally Posted by Turbulator View Post
Which paceline would YOU select for this horse? Would you take the last race because it was a win, or would you go with the 8.5F race because it is the same distance. Or...would you take the fourth race back because it is his best and, well "only" four races back.

Do you stick with the last "three comparable" pretty closely or is it simply a judgment call.

After all his last race win has a 16.4 differential over his fourth race back, and I'm guessing it would make a significant difference whether or not you selected line one or line four. There is also a five point difference in speed rating.

Thanks.

Hi Steve:

I certainly am no expert on the proper/effective utilization of Speculator 160 but I am developing preferences. I had a hell of a great day on Saturday at Belmont (5/12/07) using Spec160 for the first time but I am not necessarily confident at this early date that I could repeat the success. I am although most definitely happy with the software which has allowed me to look at the numbers in a different and/or more detailed manner.

As to your particular question, I would definitely select the Perceptor 1 ranked pace line between 1-3 so long as it was in a good form race. In this case I would certainly select pace line number 4 (ranked #1) in RichieP’s example. In addition, separately, I would definitely consider pace lines 1, 3 and 8 and most likely settle as per given on pace line #3 for additional Spec 160 computations. More often then not I would pick line #3 because it meets my base pace line requirements as follows: good form race, similar surface and distance, and best effort at better pace call time/rating. And of course there are always gray areas and all other kinds of areas and as you should know that is racing.

Thanks for your question because it makes me think about what I think I am doing,

RR
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