Penn Natl Race 5 12/18

[mikesal57]

Hi Barb..

Dont worry about posting pics while your thinking

But if you can put them up anytime after so that we can see whats folds

gl Barb &the rest of you guys

mike

[mikesal57]

If wondering Penn and WO match-up about the same...now the question..can the horses...

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

If wondering Penn and WO match-up about the same...now the question..can the horses...

Mike,

We both had the winner!

Post up a hard 1 lol. Just kidding, but nice capping guys... Way to show off the match-up skills...


Mike...you havent lost it, not 1 bit!

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

Mike,

We both had the winner!

Post up a hard 1 lol. Just kidding, but nice capping guys... Way to show off the match-up skills...


Mike...you havent lost it, not 1 bit!

Okay,

guys as requested I will post some FAQ's. I know this isn't the way "The Hat" did it, but just posting my way.


1. Don't go more than 4 races back.

That rule is key. No matter whether 5th back is at todays distance and all or not, DONT go back more than 4 races.


2. Use the MOST RECENT race at todays distance if horse has raced at todays distance in last 4 races.

This is another KEY point. It doesn't matter whether 4 back was 25 BEYER points higher, we want the horse's most recent form at todays distance, if possible.


3. If no races in the last 4 races are at todays distance, use best BEYER AT TODAYS SURFACE!!!


4. If no races are at todays Surface in last 4 either, use BEST BEYER in last 4.


5. Never use positions, for anything more than identifying style. Always use beaten lengths when it comes to judging how a horse runs against a pace.


6. If you follow these guidelines STRICTLY, you should have a very good paceline, in which all the horses can be judged by.


Hope this helps some. Anymore questions feel free.

[mikesal57]

thxs Justin...

Whats the ole saying here..."there are no rules"

What ever works for you..just do it!!

mike

nice exacta...

whata tag team we got here..

p.s- dont know how much i can get in tomorrow...we have a snow storm heading up here...hope that snow blower is working

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

thxs Justin...

Whats the ole saying here..."there are no rules"

What ever works for you..just do it!!

mike

nice exacta...

whata tag team we got here..

p.s- dont know how much i can get in tomorrow...we have a snow storm heading up here...hope that snow blower is working

mike,

Storm is staying down near Philadelphia I think.

Anyways, will be ready when you are again. We could make some money with some good tag teaming! Ya know?

Dont get snowed in with the wife... OH NO

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

mike,

Storm is staying down near Philadelphia I think.

Anyways, will be ready when you are again. We could make some money with some good tag teaming! Ya know?

Dont get snowed in with the wife... OH NO

thxs man...with that said..i cant sleep now..

Hey...heres a site where I get my PP's
If I cant get around to it...just post something for yourself and the guys
http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/trks2day.html

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

Okay,

guys as requested I will post some FAQ's. I know this isn't the way "The Hat" did it, but just posting my way.


1. Don't go more than 4 races back.

That rule is key. No matter whether 5th back is at todays distance and all or not, DONT go back more than 4 races.


2. Use the MOST RECENT race at todays distance if horse has raced at todays distance in last 4 races.

This is another KEY point. It doesn't matter whether 4 back was 25 BEYER points higher, we want the horse's most recent form at todays distance, if possible.


3. If no races in the last 4 races are at todays distance, use best BEYER AT TODAYS SURFACE!!!


4. If no races are at todays Surface in last 4 either, use BEST BEYER in last 4.


5. Never use positions, for anything more than identifying style. Always use beaten lengths when it comes to judging how a horse runs against a pace.


6. If you follow these guidelines STRICTLY, you should have a very good paceline, in which all the horses can be judged by.


Hope this helps some. Anymore questions feel free.

Justin, a couple of other points to address or not:

In point 4 with no races at todays surface, do you opt for the race closest to today's pace? If last four are say, a half a furlong off in either direction, do you favor the shorter race or the longer or just the best Beyer?

In RDSS we don't have Beyers, per se, but adjusted speed ratings. Can they be considered as equivalent?

How do you choose races for horses with layoffs. You may or may not classify layoffs by some "days off" criteria. Do you have criteria for 30-60, 60-120, or other or longer layoffs?

Tandems. How long do you consider the results valid? Obviously recent is better, but sometimes we see several from last year or similar long periods. "Tread softly" or how do you see it?

Thanks for what you have posted already.

Bill L.

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Justin, a couple of other points to address or not:

In point 4 with no races at todays surface, do you opt for the race closest to today's pace? If last four are say, a half a furlong off in either direction, do you favor the shorter race or the longer or just the best Beyer?

In RDSS we don't have Beyers, per se, but adjusted speed ratings. Can they be considered as equivalent?

How do you choose races for horses with layoffs. You may or may not classify layoffs by some "days off" criteria. Do you have criteria for 30-60, 60-120, or other or longer layoffs?

Tandems. How long do you consider the results valid? Obviously recent is better, but sometimes we see several from last year or similar long periods. "Tread softly" or how do you see it?

Thanks for what you have posted already.

Bill L.

Excellent questions Bill.

First, layoffs mean nothing. A horse can, if fit, race back to previous form.

Also, best beyer works best. Your RDSS speed ratings are fine, as they are basically the same thing.

As for Tandems, I would say if the horse was just way out of the race, regardless of recency, then eliminate. If the Tandem race was over 6 months back, and the horses were close in the race, then both can stay in. The reason is a horse that is close in a Tandem a ways back can make up a few lengths over that time period, but if horse was just blown out in the tandem race, it doesn't matter how far back it was.

Hope this helps some.

[For The Lead]

Hello Bill and Justin,
I’m sorry for breaking into your discussion, but I just felt the need to do so.

Bill, first I’m going to give you my answer to your question about “how long tandems are valid”.
Right up until the horses pass the finish line in the race in which they ran together. After that, forget about it.

Example: Horse “A” runs against horse “B”. The ONLY horse in the race that is “early” is horse “A”. Every other horse in the race cannot even be REMOTELY considered and early horse. Horse “A” wires the field. Is there anyone that believes horse “B” cannot beat horse “A” in a future race over any period of time? Even if horse “A” is one of many competitive early types in a race where horse “B” is the lone closer?

Or, let’s take the opposite. Horse “A” is a stone closer. EVERY OTHER horse in the race is an early type and also very competitive early types. Horse “A” closes to beat the field. Is there anyone who believes NONE of these early types can ever beat horse “A”, even if one of them end up as the LONE EARLY in the very next race with horse “A”?

This is common sense, basic handicapping 101.

Next, let me assure you that I am not what you would call “a matcher”. However, I understand it. I understand it to this extent. Every race (line) you pick to evaluate a horse in a computer program and/or every race (line) you use in your “match up”, brings with it the “match ups” from THAT RACE. If you believe you are a “matcher” then you know that is true. You know that it was the “match ups” in that race that directly affected the outcome of that race, that is the VERY REASON you are trying to find the various times and styles that will allow you to understand which horse(s) will most likely win today’s race based on that information. Once you have made your determination for today’s race, win or lose, what good are today’s match ups the next time any of these horses run again? For any of the information you gathered today to be valid after today, the next race would have to be EXACTLY the same and we all know that there will NEVER be another race like the one you are looking at today.

Justin, you say, “layoffs mean nothing”. The first thing I would have to know is, what period of time between two races do you consider a layoff. Until then, let me offer some facts.
1 – 76% of all winners have run within the last 30 days
2 – 88% of all winners have run within the last 45 days
3 – 92% of all winners have run within the last 60 days
4 – 94% of all winners have run within the last 90 days

Let’s look at it another way. If you are considering betting a horse that has been off

1 – more than 90 days, you have a 6% chance of winning
2 – more than 60 days, you have a 8% chance of winning
3 – more than 45 days, you have a 12% chance of winning
4 – more than 30 days, a 24% chance of winning

It seems “time off” severely impacts the chances of a horse winning once you go beyond 30 days since its’ last race.
This information is based on more than 500,000 races.
Without doing more research, my guess would be, that many of these horses that make up the group of horses that won after having been off more than 90 days, would be those horses at the top of the class ladder that ARE capable of being off for long periods of time and come back to the races in peak form. These horses make up a very small percentage when compared to all the horses in training throughout the year.